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SJSU
San José State
SpartansBalancedMountain West Conference7-1#23 (+6.18)
Grades
Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.
82· BOverall
Offense
61· CRating
62· CPer play
53· CConsistency
35· DBig plays
Defense
85· BRating
70· BPer play
63· CConsistency
Situational
16· DRed-zone O
60· CRed-zone D
41· C3rd down O
87· B3rd down D
Analytical Fingerprint
SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.
Opp-Adj Offense
+0.014
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.027
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.046
Defensive EPA/play
-0.042
lower = better
Off Success Rate
47.3%
Def Success Rate
45.3%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
22.8%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
20.5%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.088
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.078
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.22
Special Teams
Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.
Net ST Rating
+1.69
expected pts/game
Kicking
-0.41
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+0.53
vs opponent kicks
Returns
+1.25
own return game
Return Defense
+0.32
vs opponent returns
Performance vs Perception
Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.
Model Rank
#23
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
#24
model 1 spots higher
Market (Vegas)
#48
model 25 higher
Recruiting Rank
—
no recruiting profile
Peer Context
Where San José State ranks among all FBS teams in 2020 (percentile).
Opp-adjusted offense68th
Opp-adjusted defense76th
Offensive EPA/play63th
Defensive EPA/play70th
Offensive success rate55th
Explosiveness35th
Defensive havoc61th
Points per drive55th
Historical Fingerprint
Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.
1Purdue2017OA +0.012 / +0.097similar: takeaway rate, run defense, pass defense3822Iowa State2017OA +0.100 / +0.099similar: rushing offense, TD drive rate, defensive EPA3803South Alabama2022OA -0.002 / +0.058similar: offensive EPA, TD drive rate, passing offense3664Louisville2023OA +0.017 / +0.060similar: pass defense, takeaway rate, defensive EPA3615Fresno State2022OA +0.017 / +0.055similar: passing offense, offensive EPA, takeaway rate348
2020 Schedule & Results
8 games
| Wk | Opponent | Score | W/L | Spread | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | vs Air Force | 17-6 | W | +7.0 | W | 62 | U |
| 9 | vs New Mexico | 38-21 | W | -13.5 | W | 56.5 | O |
| 10 | @ San Diego State | 28-17 | W | - | - | - | - |
| 11 | vs UNLV | 34-17 | W | -15.5 | W | 59 | U |
| 14 | @ Hawai'i | 35-24 | W | -2.0 | W | 59.5 | U |
| 15 | vs Nevada | 30-20 | W | - | - | - | - |
| 16 | vs Boise State | 34-20 | W | +6.5 | W | 55.5 | U |
| 18 | vs Ball State | 13-34 | L | - | - | - | - |
Betting Profile
ATS Record
7-1
87.5%
O/U Record
1-7
12.5%
Straight Up
7-1
87.5%
Home ATS5-1
Away ATS2-0
Favorite ATS3-1
Underdog ATS4-0
Last 5 ATS
WWWWL
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.
Situational Profile
Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.
| Situation | OFF EPA | OFF Rank | DEF EPA | DEF Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | +0.045 | 63th | -0.057 | 79th |
| Red Zone | -0.164 | 16th | -0.057 | 61th |
| Third Down | +0.013 | 41th | -0.150 | 88th |
| No Garbage Time | +0.047 | 63th | -0.037 | 70th |
| First Half | -0.075 | 26th | +0.011 | 49th |
| Second Half | +0.164 | 90th | -0.131 | 85th |
| Early Downs | +0.042 | 69th | -0.078 | 80th |
| Passing Downs | +0.219 | 86th | -0.129 | 88th |
| Standard Downs | -0.032 | 36th | -0.017 | 63th |
| Goal to Go | +0.034 | 52th | +0.092 | 43th |
Style & Tendencies
Pass 55.0%Rush 45.0%
Havoc/Game
14.0
Havoc Rate
19.8%
TO Margin
+0.3
Explosive/G
14.5
Yards/Game
430.9
Pts/Drive
2.22
3rd Down%
37.6%
3&Out%
21.3%
Team Statistics
2020 season totals across 8 games — San José State vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
| Stat | San José State | Opponents |
|---|---|---|
| Scoring | ||
| Points | 229 | 159 |
| Points / Game | 28.6 | 19.9 |
| First Downs | ||
| Total | 164 | 156 |
| Rushing | 46 | 57 |
| Passing | 98 | 86 |
| Penalty | 20 | 13 |
| Rushing | ||
| Attempts | 236 | 297 |
| Yards | 1,060 | 962 |
| Yards / Carry | 4.5 | 3.2 |
| Yards / Game | 132.5 | 120.3 |
| Touchdowns | 8 | 10 |
| Passing | ||
| Attempts | 288 | 262 |
| Completions | 183 | 162 |
| Completion % | 63.5% | 61.8% |
| Yards | 2,387 | 1,807 |
| Yards / Attempt | 8.3 | 6.9 |
| Touchdowns | 19 | 8 |
| Interceptions | 9 | 3 |
| Passer Rating | 148.68 | 127.55 |
| Total Offense | ||
| Plays | 524 | 559 |
| Yards | 3,447 | 2,769 |
| Yards / Play | 6.6 | 5.0 |
| Yards / Game | 430.9 | 346.1 |
| Punt Returns | ||
| Returns | 14 | 4 |
| Yards | 127 | 69 |
| Average | 9.1 | 17.3 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 1 |
| Kickoff Returns | ||
| Returns | 19 | 31 |
| Yards | 591 | 568 |
| Average | 31.1 | 18.3 |
| Touchdowns | 2 | 0 |
| Punting | ||
| Punts | 34 | 43 |
| Yards | 1,307 | 1,844 |
| Average | 38.4 | 42.9 |
| Interception Returns | ||
| Returns | 3 | 9 |
| Yards | 0 | 122 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 1 |
| Fumbles | ||
| Fumbles | 5 | 10 |
| Lost | 0 | 8 |
| Penalties | ||
| Penalties | 53 | 47 |
| Yards | 453 | 444 |
| Yards / Game | 56.6 | 55.5 |
| Time of Possession | ||
| Per Game | 29:28 | 30:24 |
| Third Downs | ||
| Attempts | 101 | 120 |
| Conversions | 38 | 47 |
| Conversion % | 37.6% | 39.2% |
| Fourth Downs | ||
| Attempts | 13 | 18 |
| Conversions | 5 | 9 |
| Conversion % | 38.5% | 50.0% |
| Red Zone | ||
| Trips | 32 | 25 |
| Scores (TD + FG) | 25 | 18 |
| Score % | 78.1% | 72.0% |
| Touchdowns | 16 | 15 |
| TD % | 50.0% | 60.0% |
| Field Goals | ||
| Attempts | 11 | 12 |
| Made | 9 | 7 |
| Pct | 81.8% | 58.3% |
| PAT Kicking | ||
| Attempts | 26 | 19 |
| Made | 26 | 18 |
| Pct | 100.0% | 94.7% |
| Two-Point Conversions | ||
| Attempts | 3 | 1 |
| Made | 1 | 0 |
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.