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PUR
Purdue
BoilermakersBalancedBig Ten Conference7-6#36 (+8.24)
Grades
Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.
73· BOverall
Offense
45· CRating
39· DPer play
37· DConsistency
45· CBig plays
Defense
86· BRating
76· BPer play
86· BConsistency
Situational
23· DRed-zone O
85· BRed-zone D
45· C3rd down O
85· B3rd down D
How grades work →2017 is the earliest season the model grades — first-year numbers run a touch noisier than later seasons.
Analytical Fingerprint
SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.
Opp-Adj Offense
+0.012
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.097
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
-0.040
Defensive EPA/play
-0.115
lower = better
Off Success Rate
45.1%
Def Success Rate
42.3%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
22.8%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
21.2%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.075
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
+0.021
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
1.91
Special Teams
Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.
Net ST Rating
-0.32
expected pts/game
Kicking
-0.02
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-0.15
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.30
own return game
Return Defense
+0.14
vs opponent returns
Performance vs Perception
Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.
Model Rank
#36
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
—
unavailable
Recruiting Rank
#75
model 39 spots higher
0 blue-chip recruits
Peer Context
Where Purdue ranks among all FBS teams in 2017 (percentile).
Opp-adjusted offense59th
Opp-adjusted defense83th
Offensive EPA/play40th
Defensive EPA/play77th
Offensive success rate35th
Explosiveness45th
Defensive havoc48th
Points per drive34th
Historical Fingerprint
Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.
1Auburn2019OA -0.022 / +0.217similar: offensive EPA, rushing offense, run defense4042Nebraska2024OA +0.001 / +0.041similar: rushing offense, passing offense, defensive EPA3933Utah2023OA -0.066 / +0.115similar: run defense, turnover rate, passing offense3884West Virginia2020OA -0.023 / +0.046similar: offensive success rate, run defense, TD drive rate3875San José State2020OA +0.014 / +0.027similar: takeaway rate, run defense, pass defense382
2017 Schedule & Results
13 games
| Wk | Opponent | Score | W/L | Spread | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | vs Louisville | 28-35 | L | +2.5 | W | 64.5 | O |
| 2 | vs Ohio | 44-21 | W | -3.0 | W | 54 | O |
| 3 | @ Missouri | 35-3 | W | +6.0 | W | 76 | U |
| 4 | vs Michigan | 10-28 | L | +13.5 | L | 51 | U |
| 6 | vs Minnesota | 31-17 | W | -3.5 | W | 45 | O |
| 7 | @ Wisconsin | 9-17 | L | +17.0 | W | 49.5 | U |
| 8 | @ Rutgers | 12-14 | L | -9.5 | L | 49 | U |
| 9 | vs Nebraska | 24-25 | L | -4.0 | L | 54.5 | U |
| 10 | vs Illinois | 29-10 | W | -14.0 | W | 49.5 | U |
| 11 | @ Northwestern | 13-23 | L | +6.5 | L | 51 | U |
| 12 | @ Iowa | 24-15 | W | +6.0 | W | 42.5 | U |
| 13 | vs Indiana | 31-24 | W | -1.0 | W | 51 | O |
| 18 | vs Arizona | 38-35 | W | - | - | - | - |
Betting Profile
ATS Record
8-4
66.7%
O/U Record
4-8
33.3%
Straight Up
7-5
58.3%
Home ATS5-2
Away ATS3-2
Favorite ATS4-2
Underdog ATS4-2
Last 5 ATS
LWLWW
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.
Situational Profile
Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.
| Situation | OFF EPA | OFF Rank | DEF EPA | DEF Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | -0.050 | 35th | -0.109 | 75th |
| Red Zone | -0.112 | 23th | -0.192 | 86th |
| Third Down | -0.025 | 45th | -0.258 | 86th |
| No Garbage Time | -0.041 | 41th | -0.116 | 77th |
| First Half | -0.004 | 54th | -0.149 | 82th |
| Second Half | -0.097 | 26th | -0.071 | 66th |
| Early Downs | -0.044 | 46th | -0.102 | 77th |
| Passing Downs | -0.023 | 53th | -0.112 | 72th |
| Standard Downs | -0.064 | 37th | -0.107 | 75th |
| Goal to Go | -0.209 | 23th | -0.531 | 97th |
Style & Tendencies
Pass 52.3%Rush 47.7%
Havoc/Game
13.1
Havoc Rate
17.7%
TO Margin
+0.3
Explosive/G
15.4
Yards/Game
403.1
Pts/Drive
1.91
3rd Down%
33.3%
3&Out%
23.3%
Team Statistics
2017 season totals across 13 games — Purdue vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
| Stat | Purdue | Opponents |
|---|---|---|
| Scoring | ||
| Points | 328 | 267 |
| Points / Game | 25.2 | 20.5 |
| First Downs | ||
| Total | 282 | 250 |
| Rushing | 114 | 88 |
| Passing | 144 | 138 |
| Penalty | 24 | 24 |
| Rushing | ||
| Attempts | 447 | 489 |
| Yards | 1,970 | 1,728 |
| Yards / Carry | 4.4 | 3.5 |
| Yards / Game | 151.5 | 132.9 |
| Touchdowns | 12 | 10 |
| Passing | ||
| Attempts | 491 | 437 |
| Completions | 292 | 248 |
| Completion % | 59.5% | 56.8% |
| Yards | 3,270 | 3,153 |
| Yards / Attempt | 6.7 | 7.2 |
| Touchdowns | 27 | 21 |
| Interceptions | 11 | 10 |
| Passer Rating | 129.08 | 128.64 |
| Total Offense | ||
| Plays | 938 | 926 |
| Yards | 5,240 | 4,881 |
| Yards / Play | 5.6 | 5.3 |
| Yards / Game | 403.1 | 375.5 |
| Punt Returns | ||
| Returns | 18 | 13 |
| Yards | 62 | 89 |
| Average | 3.4 | 6.8 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 0 |
| Kickoff Returns | ||
| Returns | 30 | 26 |
| Yards | 509 | 609 |
| Average | 17.0 | 23.4 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 0 |
| Punting | ||
| Punts | 73 | 87 |
| Yards | 2,953 | 3,372 |
| Average | 40.5 | 38.8 |
| Interception Returns | ||
| Returns | 10 | 11 |
| Yards | 240 | 85 |
| Touchdowns | 1 | 1 |
| Fumbles | ||
| Fumbles | 15 | 14 |
| Lost | 6 | 11 |
| Penalties | ||
| Penalties | 75 | 90 |
| Yards | 658 | 778 |
| Yards / Game | 50.6 | 59.8 |
| Time of Possession | ||
| Per Game | 28:56 | 31:04 |
| Third Downs | ||
| Attempts | 186 | 206 |
| Conversions | 62 | 74 |
| Conversion % | 33.3% | 35.9% |
| Fourth Downs | ||
| Attempts | 23 | 23 |
| Conversions | 13 | 13 |
| Conversion % | 56.5% | 56.5% |
| Red Zone | ||
| Trips | 47 | 42 |
| Scores (TD + FG) | 42 | 34 |
| Score % | 89.4% | 81.0% |
| Touchdowns | 27 | 20 |
| TD % | 57.4% | 47.6% |
| Field Goals | ||
| Attempts | 24 | 15 |
| Made | 17 | 15 |
| Pct | 70.8% | 100.0% |
| PAT Kicking | ||
| Attempts | 36 | 28 |
| Made | 35 | 28 |
| Pct | 97.2% | 100.0% |
| Two-Point Conversions | ||
| Attempts | 4 | 4 |
| Made | 1 | 0 |
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.