Fourth Down Data
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JMU

James Madison

DukesBalanced
Sun Belt Conference11-2#20 (+6.49)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

85· BOverall
Offense
67· CRating
57· CPer play
73· BConsistency
40· CBig plays
Defense
86· BRating
85· BPer play
98· A+Consistency
Situational
44· CRed-zone O
81· BRed-zone D
21· D3rd down O
37· D3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
+0.036
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.058
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.029
Defensive EPA/play
-0.078
lower = better
Off Success Rate
48.9%
Def Success Rate
39.2%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
23.0%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
21.5%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.107
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.006
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.41

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
+0.37
expected pts/game
Kicking
+0.04
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+0.28
vs opponent kicks
Returns
+0.09
own return game
Return Defense
-0.05
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#20
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
model 6 spots higher
Market (Vegas)
#30
model 10 higher
Recruiting Rank
#76
model 56 spots higher
0 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where James Madison ranks among all FBS teams in 2023 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
67th
Opp-adjusted defense
79th
Offensive EPA/play
58th
Defensive EPA/play
86th
Offensive success rate
76th
Explosiveness
40th
Defensive havoc
100th
Points per drive
64th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Clemson2025OA +0.079 / +0.044similar: offensive EPA, offensive success rate, havoc rate3632Iowa State2017OA +0.100 / +0.099similar: passing offense, offensive success rate, TD drive rate3623TCU2017OA -0.025 / +0.166similar: defensive success rate, takeaway rate, offensive success rate3614Louisville2023OA +0.017 / +0.060similar: TD drive rate, offensive EPA, takeaway rate3485San José State2020OA +0.014 / +0.027similar: takeaway rate, offensive EPA, run defense338

2023 Schedule & Results

13 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1vs Bucknell38-3W----
2@ Virginia36-35W-6.5L40O
3@ Troy16-14W+3.0W46.5U
4@ Utah State45-38W-5.5W52.5O
5vs South Alabama31-23W-3.0W49.5O
7vs Georgia Southern41-13W-4.0W51.25U
8@ Marshall20-9W----
9vs Old Dominion30-27W-19.5L49O
10@ Georgia State42-14W-5.5W54.5O
11vs UConn44-6W-24.8W48.5O
12vs App State23-26L-9.0L56U
13@ Coastal Carolina56-14W-9.0W50.5O
17@ Air Force21-31L+1.5L41.5O

Betting Profile

ATS Record
8-4
66.7%
O/U Record
8-4
66.7%
Straight Up
11-2
84.6%
Home ATS3-2
Away ATS5-2
Favorite ATS7-3
Underdog ATS1-1
Last 5 ATS
WWLWL
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off53thRush Off70thRed Zone Off44th3rd Down Off21thPass Def78thRush Def87thRed Zone Def81th3rd Down Def37th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall+0.04164th-0.08088th
Red Zone-0.02944th-0.15281th
Third Down+0.04021th+0.21637th
No Garbage Time+0.01753th-0.08888th
First Half-0.00144th-0.11390th
Second Half+0.08879th-0.05072th
Early Downs+0.03979th-0.16693th
Passing Downs+0.05953th-0.03078th
Standard Downs+0.03370th-0.11587th
Goal to Go-0.02342th-0.13972th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 49.0%Rush 51.0%
Havoc/Game
19.3
Havoc Rate
27.9%
TO Margin
+0.5
Explosive/G
14.0
Yards/Game
418.9
Pts/Drive
2.41
3rd Down%
36.8%
3&Out%
20.3%

Team Statistics

2023 season totals across 13 games — James Madison vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatJames MadisonOpponents
Scoring
Points443253
Points / Game34.119.5
First Downs
Total276220
Rushing9364
Passing165141
Penalty1815
Rushing
Attempts446416
Yards1,7441,089
Yards / Carry3.92.6
Yards / Game134.283.8
Touchdowns1713
Passing
Attempts428459
Completions288278
Completion %67.3%60.6%
Yards3,7023,250
Yards / Attempt8.67.1
Touchdowns3617
Interceptions1113
Passer Rating162.56126.60
Total Offense
Plays874875
Yards5,4464,339
Yards / Play6.25.0
Yards / Game418.9333.8
Punt Returns
Returns1816
Yards26684
Average14.85.3
Touchdowns10
Kickoff Returns
Returns2225
Yards430578
Average19.523.1
Touchdowns01
Punting
Punts5973
Yards2,3953,028
Average40.641.5
Interception Returns
Returns1311
Yards159139
Touchdowns20
Fumbles
Fumbles1419
Lost48
Penalties
Penalties7262
Yards521547
Yards / Game40.142.1
Time of Possession
Per Game31:1728:32
Third Downs
Attempts163204
Conversions6074
Conversion %36.8%36.3%
Fourth Downs
Attempts1634
Conversions814
Conversion %50.0%41.2%
Red Zone
Trips5934
Scores (TD + FG)5027
Score %84.7%79.4%
Touchdowns3518
TD %59.3%52.9%
Field Goals
Attempts1815
Made1612
Pct88.9%80.0%
PAT Kicking
Attempts5330
Made5329
Pct100.0%96.7%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts30
Made10
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →