Fourth Down Data
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CLEM

Clemson

TigersBalanced
Atlantic Coast Conference7-6#25 (+11.66)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

81· BOverall
Offense
83· BRating
58· CPer play
75· BConsistency
31· DBig plays
Defense
73· BRating
66· CPer play
89· BConsistency
Situational
30· DRed-zone O
53· CRed-zone D
27· D3rd down O
59· C3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
+0.079
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.044
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.020
Defensive EPA/play
-0.061
lower = better
Off Success Rate
48.2%
Def Success Rate
40.6%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
21.7%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
21.0%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.081
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.061
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.33

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
-0.29
expected pts/game
Kicking
+0.30
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-0.48
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.08
own return game
Return Defense
-0.04
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#25
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
model 1 spots higher
Market (Vegas)
#30
model 5 higher
Recruiting Rank
#16
recruiting 9 spots higher
45 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where Clemson ranks among all FBS teams in 2025 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
79th
Opp-adjusted defense
69th
Offensive EPA/play
58th
Defensive EPA/play
66th
Offensive success rate
71th
Explosiveness
31th
Defensive havoc
95th
Points per drive
54th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1North Texas2018OA -0.014 / -0.020similar: defensive EPA, takeaway rate, offensive EPA3952Auburn2018OA +0.046 / +0.138similar: defensive success rate, havoc rate, takeaway rate3703James Madison2023OA +0.036 / +0.058similar: offensive EPA, offensive success rate, havoc rate3624Boise State2017OA +0.087 / +0.050similar: rushing offense, offensive EPA, passing offense3545Middle Tennessee2018OA +0.025 / +0.049similar: run defense, takeaway rate, passing offense347

2025 Schedule & Results

13 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1vs LSU10-17L-4.5L56.5U
2vs Troy27-16W-13.0L46U
3@ Georgia Tech21-24L-3.0L52U
4vs Syracuse21-34L-17.0L54.5O
6@ North Carolina38-10W-14.0W47O
7@ Boston College41-10W-14.0W54.5U
8vs SMU24-35L+4.5L53.5O
10vs Duke45-46L-3.0L54.5O
11vs Florida State24-10W-1.5W56.5U
12@ Louisville20-19W----
13vs Furman45-10W-41.5L55P
14@ South Carolina28-14W+2.5W46.5U
18vs Penn State10-22L-2.5L48U

Betting Profile

ATS Record
5-8
38.5%
O/U Record
4-8-1
33.3%
Straight Up
7-6
53.8%
Home ATS1-7
Away ATS4-1
Favorite ATS3-7
Underdog ATS2-1
Last 5 ATS
WWLWL
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off43thRush Off63thRed Zone Off30th3rd Down Off27thPass Def66thRush Def66thRed Zone Def53th3rd Down Def60th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall+0.01155th-0.06166th
Red Zone-0.09130th-0.03053th
Third Down-0.03727th+0.02560th
No Garbage Time+0.00954th-0.06267th
First Half+0.04867th-0.09179th
Second Half-0.02942th-0.03156th
Early Downs+0.02565th-0.00942th
Passing Downs-0.04143th-0.07066th
Standard Downs+0.03463th-0.05566th
Goal to Go+0.12867th+0.01646th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 53.7%Rush 46.3%
Havoc/Game
15.8
Havoc Rate
23.0%
TO Margin
+0.2
Explosive/G
13.5
Yards/Game
392.2
Pts/Drive
2.33
3rd Down%
34.3%
3&Out%
22.7%

Team Statistics

2025 season totals across 13 games — Clemson vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatClemsonOpponents
Scoring
Points354267
Points / Game27.220.5
First Downs
Total274247
Rushing9888
Passing153137
Penalty2322
Rushing
Attempts410387
Yards1,6181,371
Yards / Carry3.93.5
Yards / Game124.5105.5
Touchdowns2010
Passing
Attempts475484
Completions309294
Completion %65.1%60.7%
Yards3,4813,266
Yards / Attempt7.36.7
Touchdowns2218
Interceptions79
Passer Rating138.95125.98
Total Offense
Plays885871
Yards5,0994,637
Yards / Play5.85.3
Yards / Game392.2356.7
Punt Returns
Returns1810
Yards1312
Average7.30.2
Touchdowns00
Kickoff Returns
Returns1311
Yards266316
Average20.528.7
Touchdowns01
Punting
Punts5456
Yards2,1682,463
Average40.144.0
Interception Returns
Returns97
Yards6494
Touchdowns11
Fumbles
Fumbles1617
Lost88
Penalties
Penalties5778
Yards547705
Yards / Game42.154.2
Time of Possession
Per Game30:5829:02
Third Downs
Attempts175180
Conversions6058
Conversion %34.3%32.2%
Fourth Downs
Attempts3629
Conversions2012
Conversion %55.6%41.4%
Red Zone
Trips4232
Scores (TD + FG)3326
Score %78.6%81.3%
Touchdowns2519
TD %59.5%59.4%
Field Goals
Attempts2128
Made1720
Pct81.0%71.4%
PAT Kicking
Attempts4126
Made4123
Pct100.0%88.5%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts24
Made22
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →