Fourth Down Data
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ORE

Oregon

DucksPass-Heavy
Big Ten Conference1-0#94 (-3.44)
Early-season ratings are provisional. Opponent adjustment relies on a thin schedule graph until teams are connected through more games; expect movement through late September.

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

32· DOverall
Offense
45· CRating
63· CPer play
61· CConsistency
40· CBig plays
Defense
25· DRating
27· DPer play
52· CConsistency
Situational
51· CRed-zone O
41· CRed-zone D
48· C3rd down O
76· B3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
+0.017
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.041
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.140
Defensive EPA/play
+0.059
lower = better
Off Success Rate
52.4%
Def Success Rate
41.5%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
22.2%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
18.5%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.081
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
0.000
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.83

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
-0.32
expected pts/game
Kicking
+0.21
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-0.16
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.37
own return game
Return Defense
+0.01
vs opponent returns

Peer Context

Where Oregon ranks among all FBS teams in 2026 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
58th
Opp-adjusted defense
21th
Offensive EPA/play
64th
Defensive EPA/play
27th
Offensive success rate
68th
Explosiveness
40th
Defensive havoc
49th
Points per drive
50th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Louisville2021OA +0.077 / +0.021similar: passing offense, turnover rate, defensive success rate4052Texas2022OA +0.125 / +0.064similar: passing offense, havoc rate, takeaway rate3753Indiana2019OA +0.128 / -0.036similar: defensive success rate, turnover rate, offensive success rate3744Northwestern2026OA +0.021 / -0.125similar: passing offense, TD drive rate, turnover rate3725Missouri2021OA +0.061 / -0.103similar: turnover rate, havoc rate, TD drive rate371

2026 Schedule & Results

12 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1vs Boise State34-27W-24.5L51.5O
2@ Oklahoma State------
3vs Portland State------
4@ USC------
6vs UCLA------
7vs Nebraska------
8@ Illinois------
9vs Northwestern------
10@ Ohio State------
11vs Michigan------
12@ Michigan State------
13vs Washington------

Betting Profile

ATS Record
0-1
0.0%
O/U Record
1-0
100.0%
Straight Up
1-0
100.0%
Home ATS0-1
Away ATS0-0
Favorite ATS0-1
Underdog ATS0-0
Last 5 ATS
L
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off42thRush Off85thRed Zone Off52th3rd Down Off49thPass Def51thRush Def18thRed Zone Def41th3rd Down Def77th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall+0.14069th+0.05927th
Red Zone+0.12052th+0.09441th
Third Down+0.06749th-0.37877th
No Garbage Time+0.14064th+0.05928th
First Half-0.07134th+0.03334th
Second Half+0.40393th+0.08532th
Early Downs+0.508100th+0.20612th
Passing Downs-0.03642th-0.06851th
Standard Downs+0.22185th+0.11918th
Goal to Go+0.90992th-0th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 60.3%Rush 39.7%
Havoc/Game
12.0
Havoc Rate
18.2%
TO Margin
-1.0
Explosive/G
14.0
Yards/Game
497.0
Pts/Drive
2.83
3rd Down%
33.3%
3&Out%
0.0%

Team Statistics

2026 season totals across 1 games — Oregon vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatOregonOpponents
Scoring
Points3427
Points / Game34.027.0
First Downs
Total1818
Rushing67
Passing117
Penalty14
Rushing
Attempts2536
Yards11993
Yards / Carry4.82.6
Yards / Game119.093.0
Touchdowns10
Passing
Attempts3829
Completions2815
Completion %73.7%51.7%
Yards378181
Yards / Attempt9.96.2
Touchdowns33
Interceptions00
Passer Rating183.29138.29
Total Offense
Plays6365
Yards497274
Yards / Play7.94.2
Yards / Game497.0274.0
Punt Returns
Returns11
Yards12
Average1.02.0
Touchdowns00
Kickoff Returns
Returns10
Yards210
Average21.0—
Touchdowns00
Punting
Punts36
Yards144254
Average48.042.3
Interception Returns
Returns00
Yards00
Touchdowns00
Fumbles
Fumbles10
Lost10
Penalties
Penalties103
Yards9025
Yards / Game90.025.0
Time of Possession
Per Game27:1032:50
Third Downs
Attempts1215
Conversions44
Conversion %33.3%26.7%
Fourth Downs
Attempts33
Conversions02
Conversion %0.0%66.7%
Red Zone
Trips34
Scores (TD + FG)34
Score %100.0%100.0%
Touchdowns22
TD %66.7%50.0%
Field Goals
Attempts22
Made22
Pct100.0%100.0%
PAT Kicking
Attempts43
Made43
Pct100.0%100.0%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts00
Made00
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →