Fourth Down Data
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MSU

Michigan State

SpartansRun-Heavy
Big Ten Conference1-0#92 (-2.67)
Early-season ratings are provisional. Opponent adjustment relies on a thin schedule graph until teams are connected through more games; expect movement through late September.

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

33· DOverall
Offense
38· DRating
27· DPer play
43· CConsistency
13· FBig plays
Defense
25· DRating
16· DPer play
68· CConsistency
Situational
26· DRed-zone O
6· FRed-zone D
36· D3rd down O
95· A3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
-0.031
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.053
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
-0.065
Defensive EPA/play
+0.150
lower = better
Off Success Rate
47.0%
Def Success Rate
36.6%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
16.9%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
24.4%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
-0.215
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
0.000
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.64

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
+0.62
expected pts/game
Kicking
+0.27
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+0.31
vs opponent kicks
Returns
+0.09
own return game
Return Defense
-0.04
vs opponent returns

Peer Context

Where Michigan State ranks among all FBS teams in 2026 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
23th
Opp-adjusted defense
14th
Offensive EPA/play
28th
Defensive EPA/play
16th
Offensive success rate
43th
Explosiveness
13th
Defensive havoc
83th
Points per drive
47th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1LSU2021OA -0.022 / +0.029similar: rushing offense, offensive EPA, offensive success rate3102Wake Forest2019OA -0.003 / -0.009similar: passing offense, defensive success rate, run defense3073LSU2020OA -0.020 / -0.012similar: havoc rate, offensive success rate, turnover rate3044Texas A&M2017OA -0.004 / +0.039similar: takeaway rate, defensive success rate, run defense2965Marshall2025OA +0.006 / -0.022similar: turnover rate, passing offense, havoc rate295

2026 Schedule & Results

12 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1vs Toledo30-20W-10.5L47.5O
2vs Eastern Michigan------
3@ Notre Dame------
4vs Nebraska------
5@ Wisconsin------
6vs Illinois------
7vs Northwestern------
8@ UCLA------
10@ Michigan------
11vs Washington------
12vs Oregon------
13@ Rutgers------

Betting Profile

ATS Record
0-1
0.0%
O/U Record
1-0
100.0%
Straight Up
1-0
100.0%
Home ATS0-1
Away ATS0-0
Favorite ATS0-1
Underdog ATS0-0
Last 5 ATS
L
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off32thRush Off38thRed Zone Off26th3rd Down Off36thPass Def5thRush Def64thRed Zone Def7th3rd Down Def96th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall-0.06528th+0.15013th
Red Zone-0.21426th+1.0097th
Third Down-0.07136th-0.88196th
No Garbage Time-0.06528th+0.15017th
First Half-0.04435th-0.10248th
Second Half-0.08635th+0.3918th
Early Downs-0.06733th-0.10252th
Passing Downs-0.13532th+0.5935th
Standard Downs-0.03338th-0.19664th
Goal to Go-0.5359th+1.00918th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 41.0%Rush 59.0%
Havoc/Game
13.0
Havoc Rate
29.5%
TO Margin
+1.0
Explosive/G
14.0
Yards/Game
397.0
Pts/Drive
2.64
3rd Down%
33.3%
3&Out%
0.0%

Team Statistics

2026 season totals across 1 games — Michigan State vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatMichigan StateOpponents
Scoring
Points3020
Points / Game30.020.0
First Downs
Total2610
Rushing92
Passing146
Penalty32
Rushing
Attempts4920
Yards15077
Yards / Carry3.13.9
Yards / Game150.077.0
Touchdowns11
Passing
Attempts3421
Completions2612
Completion %76.5%57.1%
Yards247196
Yards / Attempt7.39.3
Touchdowns12
Interceptions01
Passer Rating147.20157.45
Total Offense
Plays8341
Yards397273
Yards / Play4.86.7
Yards / Game397.0273.0
Punt Returns
Returns30
Yards300
Average10.0—
Touchdowns00
Kickoff Returns
Returns11
Yards4723
Average47.023.0
Touchdowns00
Punting
Punts14
Yards44184
Average44.046.0
Interception Returns
Returns10
Yards00
Touchdowns00
Fumbles
Fumbles10
Lost00
Penalties
Penalties47
Yards4339
Yards / Game43.039.0
Time of Possession
Per Game43:1616:44
Third Downs
Attempts188
Conversions61
Conversion %33.3%12.5%
Fourth Downs
Attempts31
Conversions20
Conversion %66.7%0.0%
Red Zone
Trips41
Scores (TD + FG)41
Score %100.0%100.0%
Touchdowns21
TD %50.0%100.0%
Field Goals
Attempts61
Made50
Pct83.3%0.0%
PAT Kicking
Attempts12
Made12
Pct100.0%100.0%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts11
Made10
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →