Fourth Down Data
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WKU

Western Kentucky

HilltoppersBalanced
Conference USA9-4#51 (+2.87)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

62· COverall
Offense
45· CRating
44· CPer play
60· CConsistency
57· CBig plays
Defense
69· CRating
76· BPer play
83· BConsistency
Situational
23· DRed-zone O
82· BRed-zone D
54· C3rd down O
87· B3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
-0.013
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.057
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
-0.004
Defensive EPA/play
-0.093
lower = better
Off Success Rate
47.0%
Def Success Rate
41.6%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
24.2%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
21.7%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.089
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
+0.067
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.11

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
-0.10
expected pts/game
Kicking
+0.32
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-0.28
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.09
own return game
Return Defense
-0.05
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#51
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
—
unavailable
Recruiting Rank
#75
model 24 spots higher
0 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where Western Kentucky ranks among all FBS teams in 2019 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
45th
Opp-adjusted defense
73th
Offensive EPA/play
44th
Defensive EPA/play
77th
Offensive success rate
59th
Explosiveness
57th
Defensive havoc
53th
Points per drive
46th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Troy2020OA -0.011 / +0.020similar: run defense, rushing offense, offensive EPA4362Purdue2021OA +0.134 / +0.095similar: TD drive rate, defensive EPA, run defense4023Middle Tennessee2018OA +0.025 / +0.049similar: turnover rate, defensive EPA, TD drive rate3924Troy2022OA +0.038 / +0.141similar: pass defense, turnover rate, TD drive rate3725Michigan State2017OA +0.020 / +0.139similar: TD drive rate, passing offense, defensive success rate371

2019 Schedule & Results

13 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1vs Central Arkansas28-35L-3.0P56U
2@ Florida International20-14W+9.0W57U
3vs Louisville21-38L+10.5L49O
5vs UAB20-13W+3.5W47.5U
6@ Old Dominion20-3W-2.5W42U
7vs Army17-8W+5.0W43.5U
8vs Charlotte30-14W-9.5W48U
9@ Marshall23-26L+4.0W44.5O
10vs Florida Atlantic24-35L0.0L51O
11@ Arkansas45-19W0.0W51O
13@ Southern Miss28-10W+3.5W51U
14vs Middle Tennessee31-26W-10.0L45.5O
18@ Western Michigan23-20W----

Betting Profile

ATS Record
8-3-1
72.7%
O/U Record
5-7
41.7%
Straight Up
9-3
75.0%
Home ATS3-3
Away ATS5-0
Favorite ATS2-1
Underdog ATS6-2
Last 5 ATS
WLWWL
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off41thRush Off48thRed Zone Off23th3rd Down Off54thPass Def57thRush Def90thRed Zone Def83th3rd Down Def88th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall-0.00941th-0.09080th
Red Zone-0.16223th-0.18683th
Third Down+0.04954th-0.16188th
No Garbage Time-0.00444th-0.09078th
First Half+0.02758th-0.06368th
Second Half-0.05031th-0.11589th
Early Downs+0.00249th-0.14595th
Passing Downs-0.01841th-0.04057th
Standard Downs-0.00548th-0.11990th
Goal to Go-0.01150th-0.39789th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 52.1%Rush 47.9%
Havoc/Game
12.4
Havoc Rate
18.8%
TO Margin
-0.5
Explosive/G
16.2
Yards/Game
387.8
Pts/Drive
2.11
3rd Down%
41.0%
3&Out%
16.1%

Team Statistics

2019 season totals across 13 games — Western Kentucky vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatWestern KentuckyOpponents
Scoring
Points330261
Points / Game25.420.1
First Downs
Total267224
Rushing92103
Passing15499
Penalty2122
Rushing
Attempts431473
Yards1,6701,762
Yards / Carry3.93.7
Yards / Game128.5135.5
Touchdowns1811
Passing
Attempts469362
Completions313193
Completion %66.7%53.3%
Yards3,3712,599
Yards / Attempt7.27.2
Touchdowns2017
Interceptions1211
Passer Rating136.07123.04
Total Offense
Plays900835
Yards5,0414,361
Yards / Play5.65.2
Yards / Game387.8335.5
Punt Returns
Returns1619
Yards65130
Average4.16.8
Touchdowns00
Kickoff Returns
Returns3528
Yards671525
Average19.218.8
Touchdowns00
Punting
Punts4662
Yards2,0832,507
Average45.340.4
Interception Returns
Returns1112
Yards49237
Touchdowns12
Fumbles
Fumbles1610
Lost94
Penalties
Penalties5367
Yards514671
Yards / Game39.551.6
Time of Possession
Per Game32:0027:60
Third Downs
Attempts183172
Conversions7551
Conversion %41.0%29.7%
Fourth Downs
Attempts2536
Conversions1518
Conversion %60.0%50.0%
Red Zone
Trips5033
Scores (TD + FG)3925
Score %78.0%75.8%
Touchdowns2616
TD %52.0%48.5%
Field Goals
Attempts2818
Made1713
Pct60.7%72.2%
PAT Kicking
Attempts4029
Made3928
Pct97.5%96.6%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts03
Made01
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →