Fourth Down Data
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TROY

Troy

TrojansBalanced
Sun Belt Conference12-2#33 (+4.02)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

76· BOverall
Offense
41· CRating
45· CPer play
46· CConsistency
52· CBig plays
Defense
95· ARating
95· APer play
87· BConsistency
Situational
37· DRed-zone O
69· CRed-zone D
15· D3rd down O
62· C3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
+0.038
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.141
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
-0.020
Defensive EPA/play
-0.185
lower = better
Off Success Rate
45.2%
Def Success Rate
43.8%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
23.9%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
19.4%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.164
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
+0.051
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.00

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
-0.03
expected pts/game
Kicking
+0.55
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-0.25
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.48
own return game
Return Defense
+0.16
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#33
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
#19
AP 14 spots higher
Market (Vegas)
#64
model 31 higher
Recruiting Rank
#75
model 42 spots higher
0 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where Troy ranks among all FBS teams in 2022 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
65th
Opp-adjusted defense
93th
Offensive EPA/play
46th
Defensive EPA/play
96th
Offensive success rate
43th
Explosiveness
53th
Defensive havoc
59th
Points per drive
39th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Middle Tennessee2018OA +0.025 / +0.049similar: turnover rate, offensive success rate, offensive EPA4032Kentucky2022OA -0.025 / +0.143similar: pass defense, passing offense, defensive EPA3963Michigan2019OA +0.070 / +0.125similar: defensive success rate, offensive EPA, run defense3874Western Kentucky2019OA -0.013 / +0.057similar: pass defense, turnover rate, TD drive rate3725Michigan State2017OA +0.020 / +0.139similar: TD drive rate, defensive EPA, passing offense370

2022 Schedule & Results

14 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1@ Ole Miss10-28L+21.5W57.5U
2vs Alabama A&M38-17W----
3@ App State28-32L+13.5W52O
4vs Marshall16-7W+3.5W52U
5@ Western Kentucky34-27W+5.0W54.5O
6vs Southern Miss27-10W-6.5W44U
7vs Texas State17-14W+3.0W46.5U
8@ South Alabama10-6W----
10@ Louisiana23-17W-5.8W43.5U
11vs Army10-9W-9.0L46U
12vs UL Monroe34-16W-15.0W48O
13@ Arkansas State48-19W-13.5W46.5O
14vs Coastal Carolina45-26W-8.5W48O
16vs UTSA18-12W----

Betting Profile

ATS Record
11-2
84.6%
O/U Record
5-8
38.5%
Straight Up
12-2
85.7%
Home ATS5-2
Away ATS6-0
Favorite ATS5-2
Underdog ATS6-0
Last 5 ATS
LWWWW
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off36thRush Off48thRed Zone Off37th3rd Down Off15thPass Def96thRush Def83thRed Zone Def70th3rd Down Def63th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall-0.03644th-0.15995th
Red Zone-0.05037th-0.14170th
Third Down-0.14015th+0.00063th
No Garbage Time-0.03844th-0.18896th
First Half-0.15713th-0.14385th
Second Half+0.07879th-0.17696th
Early Downs-0.07026th-0.13290th
Passing Downs-0.07636th-0.25196th
Standard Downs-0.01448th-0.10983th
Goal to Go-0.28415th-0.20074th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 44.7%Rush 55.3%
Havoc/Game
14.0
Havoc Rate
19.2%
TO Margin
+0.4
Explosive/G
14.2
Yards/Game
358.6
Pts/Drive
2.00
3rd Down%
32.6%
3&Out%
18.1%

Team Statistics

2022 season totals across 14 games — Troy vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatTroyOpponents
Scoring
Points358240
Points / Game25.617.1
First Downs
Total272275
Rushing101109
Passing143143
Penalty2823
Rushing
Attempts497492
Yards1,6211,673
Yards / Carry3.33.4
Yards / Game115.8119.5
Touchdowns2115
Passing
Attempts401484
Completions251290
Completion %62.6%59.9%
Yards3,4002,905
Yards / Attempt8.56.0
Touchdowns2014
Interceptions1513
Passer Rating142.79114.51
Total Offense
Plays898976
Yards5,0214,578
Yards / Play5.64.7
Yards / Game358.6327.0
Punt Returns
Returns1419
Yards132121
Average9.46.4
Touchdowns00
Kickoff Returns
Returns2023
Yards328405
Average16.417.6
Touchdowns00
Punting
Punts6475
Yards2,6463,089
Average41.341.2
Interception Returns
Returns1315
Yards248128
Touchdowns10
Fumbles
Fumbles1224
Lost613
Penalties
Penalties7683
Yards699758
Yards / Game49.954.1
Time of Possession
Per Game30:3029:30
Third Downs
Attempts175205
Conversions5781
Conversion %32.6%39.5%
Fourth Downs
Attempts2629
Conversions1715
Conversion %65.4%51.7%
Red Zone
Trips4841
Scores (TD + FG)3932
Score %81.3%78.0%
Touchdowns2623
TD %54.2%56.1%
Field Goals
Attempts1917
Made1713
Pct89.5%76.5%
PAT Kicking
Attempts4224
Made4123
Pct97.6%95.8%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts24
Made10
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →