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MICH
Michigan
WolverinesBalancedBig Ten Conference9-4#14 (+18.11)
Grades
Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.
89· BOverall
Offense
77· BRating
52· CPer play
66· CConsistency
77· BBig plays
Defense
89· BRating
77· BPer play
73· BConsistency
Situational
38· DRed-zone O
22· DRed-zone D
30· D3rd down O
95· A3rd down D
Analytical Fingerprint
SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.
Opp-Adj Offense
+0.070
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.125
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.013
Defensive EPA/play
-0.094
lower = better
Off Success Rate
47.7%
Def Success Rate
43.5%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
25.5%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
21.4%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.106
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
+0.027
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.38
Special Teams
Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.
Net ST Rating
+2.06
expected pts/game
Kicking
+0.37
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+1.31
vs opponent kicks
Returns
+0.18
own return game
Return Defense
+0.19
vs opponent returns
Performance vs Perception
Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.
Model Rank
#14
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
#18
model 4 spots higher
Market (Vegas)
—
unavailable
Recruiting Rank
#4
recruiting 10 spots higher
58 blue-chip recruits
Peer Context
Where Michigan ranks among all FBS teams in 2019 (percentile).
Opp-adjusted offense76th
Opp-adjusted defense90th
Offensive EPA/play52th
Defensive EPA/play78th
Offensive success rate63th
Explosiveness78th
Defensive havoc67th
Points per drive63th
Historical Fingerprint
Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.
1Georgia2020OA +0.011 / +0.032similar: run defense, defensive success rate, defensive EPA4362Minnesota2021OA +0.109 / +0.102similar: offensive success rate, offensive EPA, takeaway rate4203Penn State2026OA +0.030 / +0.032similar: rushing offense, run defense, passing offense4044Iowa2018OA +0.039 / +0.179similar: rushing offense, offensive EPA, TD drive rate3905Pittsburgh2025OA -0.006 / +0.103similar: takeaway rate, TD drive rate, offensive EPA388
2019 Schedule & Results
13 games
| Wk | Opponent | Score | W/L | Spread | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | vs Middle Tennessee | 40-21 | W | +8.5 | L | 62 | U |
| 2 | vs Army | 24-21 | W | -21.5 | L | 48 | U |
| 4 | @ Wisconsin | 14-35 | L | +3.0 | L | 46 | O |
| 5 | vs Rutgers | 52-0 | W | -27.5 | W | 50 | O |
| 6 | vs Iowa | 10-3 | W | -4.0 | W | 48 | U |
| 7 | @ Illinois | 42-25 | W | -24.5 | L | 49 | O |
| 8 | @ Penn State | 21-28 | L | +7.5 | W | 47 | O |
| 9 | vs Notre Dame | 45-14 | W | +1.5 | W | 46.5 | O |
| 10 | @ Maryland | 38-7 | W | -22.0 | W | 57.5 | U |
| 12 | vs Michigan State | 44-10 | W | -14.0 | W | 44 | O |
| 13 | @ Indiana | 39-14 | W | -10.0 | W | 54.5 | U |
| 14 | vs Ohio State | 27-56 | L | +9.5 | L | 54 | O |
| 19 | @ Alabama | 16-35 | L | - | - | - | - |
Betting Profile
ATS Record
7-5
58.3%
O/U Record
7-5
58.3%
Straight Up
8-4
66.7%
Home ATS4-2
Away ATS3-3
Favorite ATS5-2
Underdog ATS2-3
Last 5 ATS
WWWWL
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.
Situational Profile
Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.
| Situation | OFF EPA | OFF Rank | DEF EPA | DEF Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | +0.030 | 56th | -0.092 | 81th |
| Red Zone | -0.076 | 39th | +0.105 | 22th |
| Third Down | -0.049 | 31th | -0.253 | 96th |
| No Garbage Time | +0.006 | 49th | -0.090 | 78th |
| First Half | +0.055 | 66th | -0.048 | 62th |
| Second Half | +0.004 | 49th | -0.137 | 93th |
| Early Downs | +0.031 | 63th | -0.048 | 71th |
| Passing Downs | +0.061 | 60th | -0.205 | 93th |
| Standard Downs | +0.016 | 57th | -0.036 | 67th |
| Goal to Go | +0.074 | 65th | +0.035 | 40th |
Style & Tendencies
Pass 45.3%Rush 54.7%
Havoc/Game
13.4
Havoc Rate
20.0%
TO Margin
0.0
Explosive/G
15.0
Yards/Game
401.5
Pts/Drive
2.38
3rd Down%
39.1%
3&Out%
15.7%
Team Statistics
2019 season totals across 13 games — Michigan vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
| Stat | Michigan | Opponents |
|---|---|---|
| Scoring | ||
| Points | 412 | 269 |
| Points / Game | 31.7 | 20.7 |
| First Downs | ||
| Total | 286 | 226 |
| Rushing | 108 | 95 |
| Passing | 141 | 103 |
| Penalty | 37 | 28 |
| Rushing | ||
| Attempts | 495 | 501 |
| Yards | 1,959 | 1,582 |
| Yards / Carry | 4.0 | 3.2 |
| Yards / Game | 150.7 | 121.7 |
| Touchdowns | 26 | 20 |
| Passing | ||
| Attempts | 410 | 345 |
| Completions | 228 | 198 |
| Completion % | 55.6% | 57.4% |
| Yards | 3,261 | 2,412 |
| Yards / Attempt | 8.0 | 7.0 |
| Touchdowns | 25 | 16 |
| Interceptions | 9 | 9 |
| Passer Rating | 138.15 | 126.21 |
| Total Offense | ||
| Plays | 905 | 846 |
| Yards | 5,220 | 3,994 |
| Yards / Play | 5.8 | 4.7 |
| Yards / Game | 401.5 | 307.2 |
| Punt Returns | ||
| Returns | 38 | 19 |
| Yards | 289 | 134 |
| Average | 7.6 | 7.1 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 0 |
| Kickoff Returns | ||
| Returns | 26 | 19 |
| Yards | 665 | 440 |
| Average | 25.6 | 23.2 |
| Touchdowns | 1 | 1 |
| Punting | ||
| Punts | 57 | 87 |
| Yards | 2,466 | 3,571 |
| Average | 43.3 | 41.0 |
| Interception Returns | ||
| Returns | 9 | 9 |
| Yards | 31 | 36 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 0 |
| Fumbles | ||
| Fumbles | 24 | 16 |
| Lost | 11 | 11 |
| Penalties | ||
| Penalties | 80 | 96 |
| Yards | 649 | 850 |
| Yards / Game | 49.9 | 65.4 |
| Time of Possession | ||
| Per Game | 29:32 | 30:28 |
| Third Downs | ||
| Attempts | 174 | 182 |
| Conversions | 68 | 59 |
| Conversion % | 39.1% | 32.4% |
| Fourth Downs | ||
| Attempts | 22 | 22 |
| Conversions | 12 | 13 |
| Conversion % | 54.5% | 59.1% |
| Red Zone | ||
| Trips | 59 | 34 |
| Scores (TD + FG) | 48 | 27 |
| Score % | 81.4% | 79.4% |
| Touchdowns | 36 | 25 |
| TD % | 61.0% | 73.5% |
| Field Goals | ||
| Attempts | 22 | 6 |
| Made | 16 | 3 |
| Pct | 72.7% | 50.0% |
| PAT Kicking | ||
| Attempts | 47 | 36 |
| Made | 46 | 36 |
| Pct | 97.9% | 100.0% |
| Two-Point Conversions | ||
| Attempts | 5 | 1 |
| Made | 3 | 1 |
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.