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IOWA
Iowa
HawkeyesBalancedBig Ten Conference9-4#13 (+9.18)
Grades
Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.
90· A-Overall
Offense
79· BRating
46· CPer play
58· CConsistency
44· CBig plays
Defense
87· BRating
94· APer play
77· BConsistency
Situational
88· BRed-zone O
42· CRed-zone D
81· B3rd down O
92· A-3rd down D
Analytical Fingerprint
SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.
Opp-Adj Offense
+0.039
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.179
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
-0.008
Defensive EPA/play
-0.189
lower = better
Off Success Rate
46.8%
Def Success Rate
44.3%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
23.4%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
18.2%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.182
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
+0.004
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.38
Special Teams
Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.
Net ST Rating
+1.31
expected pts/game
Kicking
+0.21
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+0.84
vs opponent kicks
Returns
+0.13
own return game
Return Defense
+0.13
vs opponent returns
Performance vs Perception
Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.
Model Rank
#13
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
#25
model 12 spots higher
Market (Vegas)
—
unavailable
Recruiting Rank
#47
model 34 spots higher
4 blue-chip recruits
Peer Context
Where Iowa ranks among all FBS teams in 2018 (percentile).
Opp-adjusted offense66th
Opp-adjusted defense97th
Offensive EPA/play47th
Defensive EPA/play95th
Offensive success rate55th
Explosiveness45th
Defensive havoc77th
Points per drive70th
Historical Fingerprint
Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.
1Minnesota2024OA +0.001 / +0.055similar: rushing offense, defensive EPA, pass defense4792Notre Dame2021OA +0.071 / +0.132similar: offensive success rate, havoc rate, turnover rate4203Troy2023OA -0.020 / +0.169similar: offensive success rate, defensive EPA, turnover rate4044Auburn2019OA -0.022 / +0.217similar: havoc rate, TD drive rate, defensive EPA3955Baylor2019OA +0.062 / +0.147similar: passing offense, defensive success rate, havoc rate391
2018 Schedule & Results
13 games
| Wk | Opponent | Score | W/L | Spread | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | vs Northern Illinois | 33-7 | W | +7.0 | W | 40 | O |
| 2 | vs Iowa State | 13-3 | W | -3.5 | W | 47 | U |
| 3 | vs Northern Iowa | 38-14 | W | -21.0 | W | 43.5 | O |
| 4 | vs Wisconsin | 17-28 | L | +3.0 | L | 43.5 | O |
| 6 | @ Minnesota | 48-31 | W | -7.0 | W | 41.5 | O |
| 7 | @ Indiana | 42-16 | W | -3.5 | W | 52 | O |
| 8 | vs Maryland | 23-0 | W | -9.5 | W | 44.5 | U |
| 9 | @ Penn State | 24-30 | L | +5.5 | L | 52 | O |
| 10 | @ Purdue | 36-38 | L | +1.5 | L | 51.5 | O |
| 11 | vs Northwestern | 10-14 | L | -10.0 | L | 46.5 | U |
| 12 | @ Illinois | 63-0 | W | -15.5 | W | 60 | O |
| 13 | vs Nebraska | 31-28 | W | -7.5 | L | 52 | O |
| 19 | vs Mississippi State | 27-22 | W | - | - | - | - |
Betting Profile
ATS Record
7-5
58.3%
O/U Record
9-3
75.0%
Straight Up
8-4
66.7%
Home ATS4-3
Away ATS3-2
Favorite ATS6-2
Underdog ATS1-3
Last 5 ATS
LLLWL
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.
Situational Profile
Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.
| Situation | OFF EPA | OFF Rank | DEF EPA | DEF Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | -0.015 | 40th | -0.144 | 92th |
| Red Zone | +0.189 | 89th | +0.039 | 42th |
| Third Down | +0.228 | 82th | -0.198 | 93th |
| No Garbage Time | -0.009 | 43th | -0.173 | 94th |
| First Half | +0.009 | 48th | -0.190 | 94th |
| Second Half | -0.042 | 31th | -0.102 | 83th |
| Early Downs | -0.033 | 40th | -0.081 | 79th |
| Passing Downs | -0.003 | 48th | -0.285 | 98th |
| Standard Downs | -0.022 | 42th | -0.076 | 77th |
| Goal to Go | +0.209 | 77th | +0.283 | 16th |
Style & Tendencies
Pass 45.5%Rush 54.5%
Havoc/Game
14.0
Havoc Rate
21.3%
TO Margin
+0.7
Explosive/G
14.5
Yards/Game
375.0
Pts/Drive
2.38
3rd Down%
43.5%
3&Out%
20.4%
Team Statistics
2018 season totals across 13 games — Iowa vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
| Stat | Iowa | Opponents |
|---|---|---|
| Scoring | ||
| Points | 405 | 231 |
| Points / Game | 31.2 | 17.8 |
| First Downs | ||
| Total | 261 | 214 |
| Rushing | 99 | 101 |
| Passing | 138 | 98 |
| Penalty | 24 | 15 |
| Rushing | ||
| Attempts | 488 | 435 |
| Yards | 1,929 | 1,424 |
| Yards / Carry | 4.0 | 3.3 |
| Yards / Game | 148.4 | 109.5 |
| Touchdowns | 19 | 9 |
| Passing | ||
| Attempts | 408 | 402 |
| Completions | 242 | 230 |
| Completion % | 59.3% | 57.2% |
| Yards | 2,946 | 2,393 |
| Yards / Attempt | 7.2 | 6.0 |
| Touchdowns | 27 | 19 |
| Interceptions | 11 | 20 |
| Passer Rating | 136.41 | 112.86 |
| Total Offense | ||
| Plays | 896 | 837 |
| Yards | 4,875 | 3,817 |
| Yards / Play | 5.4 | 4.6 |
| Yards / Game | 375.0 | 293.6 |
| Punt Returns | ||
| Returns | 28 | 21 |
| Yards | 296 | 94 |
| Average | 10.6 | 4.5 |
| Touchdowns | 1 | 0 |
| Kickoff Returns | ||
| Returns | 30 | 25 |
| Yards | 820 | 411 |
| Average | 27.3 | 16.4 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 0 |
| Punting | ||
| Punts | 56 | 73 |
| Yards | 2,124 | 2,959 |
| Average | 37.9 | 40.5 |
| Interception Returns | ||
| Returns | 20 | 11 |
| Yards | 227 | 182 |
| Touchdowns | 1 | 0 |
| Fumbles | ||
| Fumbles | 12 | 13 |
| Lost | 7 | 7 |
| Penalties | ||
| Penalties | 61 | 78 |
| Yards | 539 | 728 |
| Yards / Game | 41.5 | 56.0 |
| Time of Possession | ||
| Per Game | 32:32 | 27:28 |
| Third Downs | ||
| Attempts | 191 | 181 |
| Conversions | 83 | 62 |
| Conversion % | 43.5% | 34.3% |
| Fourth Downs | ||
| Attempts | 25 | 25 |
| Conversions | 17 | 11 |
| Conversion % | 68.0% | 44.0% |
| Red Zone | ||
| Trips | 55 | 29 |
| Scores (TD + FG) | 47 | 23 |
| Score % | 85.5% | 79.3% |
| Touchdowns | 38 | 18 |
| TD % | 69.1% | 62.1% |
| Field Goals | ||
| Attempts | 22 | 16 |
| Made | 17 | 12 |
| Pct | 77.3% | 75.0% |
| PAT Kicking | ||
| Attempts | 48 | 25 |
| Made | 48 | 25 |
| Pct | 100.0% | 100.0% |
| Two-Point Conversions | ||
| Attempts | 2 | 3 |
| Made | 0 | 1 |
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.