Fourth Down Data
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MINN

Minnesota

Golden GophersBalanced
Big Ten Conference8-5#32 (+4.45)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

76· BOverall
Offense
63· CRating
44· CPer play
69· CConsistency
33· DBig plays
Defense
87· BRating
93· APer play
79· BConsistency
Situational
81· BRed-zone O
79· BRed-zone D
58· C3rd down O
80· B3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
+0.001
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.055
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
-0.002
Defensive EPA/play
-0.142
lower = better
Off Success Rate
46.8%
Def Success Rate
42.7%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
22.9%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
19.9%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.140
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.001
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.34

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
-0.41
expected pts/game
Kicking
+0.13
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-0.50
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.06
own return game
Return Defense
+0.02
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#32
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
#59
model 27 higher
Recruiting Rank
#40
model 8 spots higher
11 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where Minnesota ranks among all FBS teams in 2024 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
49th
Opp-adjusted defense
92th
Offensive EPA/play
44th
Defensive EPA/play
94th
Offensive success rate
63th
Explosiveness
33th
Defensive havoc
84th
Points per drive
57th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Iowa2019OA -0.062 / +0.147similar: defensive EPA, pass defense, rushing offense4802Iowa2018OA +0.039 / +0.179similar: rushing offense, defensive EPA, pass defense4793Notre Dame2021OA +0.071 / +0.132similar: defensive EPA, rushing offense, defensive success rate3944West Virginia2020OA -0.023 / +0.046similar: defensive EPA, turnover rate, run defense3925Troy2023OA -0.020 / +0.169similar: rushing offense, defensive EPA, takeaway rate391

2024 Schedule & Results

13 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1vs North Carolina17-19L----
2vs Rhode Island48-0W-28.5W39.5O
3vs Nevada27-0W-17.5W44U
4vs Iowa14-31L+2.5L35.5O
5@ Michigan24-27L+9.5W35.5O
6vs USC24-17W+8.0W49U
7@ UCLA21-17W-5.5L40U
9vs Maryland48-23W-4.0W45.5O
10@ Illinois25-17W-3.0W45U
11@ Rutgers19-26L-6.0L46.5U
13vs Penn State25-26L+2.5W42.5U
14@ Wisconsin24-7W----
19@ Virginia Tech24-10W----

Betting Profile

ATS Record
9-3-1
75.0%
O/U Record
5-8
38.5%
Straight Up
8-5
61.5%
Home ATS5-1
Away ATS4-2
Favorite ATS5-2
Underdog ATS4-1
Last 5 ATS
WLWWW
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off25thRush Off57thRed Zone Off82th3rd Down Off58thPass Def96thRush Def84thRed Zone Def80th3rd Down Def81th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall-0.01239th-0.13495th
Red Zone+0.17782th-0.16480th
Third Down+0.13958th-0.05481th
No Garbage Time-0.01140th-0.14295th
First Half-0.00446th-0.20899th
Second Half-0.02036th-0.05976th
Early Downs-0.06623th-0.12388th
Passing Downs-0.07225th-0.20396th
Standard Downs+0.01957th-0.09584th
Goal to Go+0.12366th+0.16317th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 50.5%Rush 49.5%
Havoc/Game
13.8
Havoc Rate
22.2%
TO Margin
+0.7
Explosive/G
13.3
Yards/Game
337.8
Pts/Drive
2.34
3rd Down%
45.6%
3&Out%
21.4%

Team Statistics

2024 season totals across 13 games — Minnesota vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatMinnesotaOpponents
Scoring
Points340220
Points / Game26.216.9
First Downs
Total265208
Rushing9477
Passing143111
Penalty2820
Rushing
Attempts404407
Yards1,5031,425
Yards / Carry3.73.5
Yards / Game115.6109.6
Touchdowns1814
Passing
Attempts412373
Completions273220
Completion %66.3%59.0%
Yards2,8882,289
Yards / Attempt7.06.1
Touchdowns2011
Interceptions617
Passer Rating138.25111.15
Total Offense
Plays816780
Yards4,3913,714
Yards / Play5.44.8
Yards / Game337.8285.7
Punt Returns
Returns2417
Yards196138
Average8.28.1
Touchdowns00
Kickoff Returns
Returns2110
Yards401209
Average19.120.9
Touchdowns00
Punting
Punts5361
Yards2,2602,645
Average42.643.4
Interception Returns
Returns176
Yards23961
Touchdowns20
Fumbles
Fumbles1011
Lost64
Penalties
Penalties6365
Yards488638
Yards / Game37.549.1
Time of Possession
Per Game31:5728:03
Third Downs
Attempts169172
Conversions7767
Conversion %45.6%39.0%
Fourth Downs
Attempts1117
Conversions107
Conversion %90.9%41.2%
Red Zone
Trips4834
Scores (TD + FG)4226
Score %87.5%76.5%
Touchdowns3117
TD %64.6%50.0%
Field Goals
Attempts2819
Made2015
Pct71.4%78.9%
PAT Kicking
Attempts3924
Made3823
Pct97.4%95.8%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts11
Made00
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →