← All Teams
UK
Kentucky
WildcatsBalancedSoutheastern Conference7-6#60 (+1.27)
Grades
Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.
56· COverall
Offense
32· DRating
32· DPer play
36· DConsistency
53· CBig plays
Defense
84· BRating
89· BPer play
59· CConsistency
Situational
21· DRed-zone O
83· BRed-zone D
27· D3rd down O
87· B3rd down D
Analytical Fingerprint
SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.
Opp-Adj Offense
-0.025
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.143
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
-0.068
Defensive EPA/play
-0.142
lower = better
Off Success Rate
43.7%
Def Success Rate
44.5%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
24.0%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
19.8%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.074
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.186
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
1.86
Special Teams
Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.
Net ST Rating
-0.46
expected pts/game
Kicking
-0.51
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+0.10
vs opponent kicks
Returns
+0.51
own return game
Return Defense
-0.56
vs opponent returns
Performance vs Perception
Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.
Model Rank
#60
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
#69
model 9 higher
Recruiting Rank
#26
recruiting 34 spots higher
18 blue-chip recruits
Peer Context
Where Kentucky ranks among all FBS teams in 2022 (percentile).
Opp-adjusted offense41th
Opp-adjusted defense94th
Offensive EPA/play33th
Defensive EPA/play90th
Offensive success rate32th
Explosiveness53th
Defensive havoc27th
Points per drive32th
Historical Fingerprint
Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.
1Troy2022OA +0.038 / +0.141similar: pass defense, passing offense, defensive EPA3962Western Kentucky2019OA -0.013 / +0.057similar: run defense, pass defense, passing offense3683Tennessee2019OA -0.013 / +0.086similar: turnover rate, TD drive rate, offensive EPA3654TCU2018OA -0.079 / +0.129similar: offensive success rate, takeaway rate, defensive EPA3465Penn State2021OA -0.022 / +0.125similar: pass defense, defensive EPA, offensive EPA332
2022 Schedule & Results
13 games
| Wk | Opponent | Score | W/L | Spread | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | vs Miami (OH) | 37-13 | W | -16.5 | W | 54 | U |
| 2 | @ Florida | 26-16 | W | +6.0 | W | 51.5 | U |
| 3 | vs Youngstown State | 31-0 | W | - | - | - | - |
| 4 | vs Northern Illinois | 31-23 | W | -26.5 | L | 53 | O |
| 5 | @ Ole Miss | 19-22 | L | +7.0 | W | 53.5 | U |
| 6 | vs South Carolina | 14-24 | L | -6.0 | L | 46 | U |
| 7 | vs Mississippi State | 27-17 | W | +4.0 | W | 49 | U |
| 9 | @ Tennessee | 6-44 | L | +12.0 | L | 61 | U |
| 10 | @ Missouri | 21-17 | W | -1.5 | W | 42 | U |
| 11 | vs Vanderbilt | 21-24 | L | -18.0 | L | 48 | U |
| 12 | vs Georgia | 6-16 | L | +22.5 | W | 49.5 | U |
| 13 | vs Louisville | 26-13 | W | -3.0 | W | 43.5 | U |
| 18 | vs Iowa | 0-21 | L | +2.5 | L | 31 | U |
Betting Profile
ATS Record
7-5
58.3%
O/U Record
1-11
8.3%
Straight Up
7-6
53.8%
Home ATS4-4
Away ATS3-1
Favorite ATS3-3
Underdog ATS4-2
Last 5 ATS
WLWWL
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.
Situational Profile
Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.
| Situation | OFF EPA | OFF Rank | DEF EPA | DEF Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | -0.070 | 32th | -0.142 | 93th |
| Red Zone | -0.166 | 21th | -0.221 | 84th |
| Third Down | -0.049 | 27th | -0.130 | 87th |
| No Garbage Time | -0.064 | 36th | -0.138 | 90th |
| First Half | -0.114 | 24th | -0.146 | 86th |
| Second Half | -0.024 | 47th | -0.137 | 88th |
| Early Downs | -0.052 | 38th | -0.069 | 72th |
| Passing Downs | -0.098 | 29th | -0.220 | 93th |
| Standard Downs | -0.054 | 31th | -0.096 | 77th |
| Goal to Go | -0.089 | 39th | -0.098 | 58th |
Style & Tendencies
Pass 43.0%Rush 57.0%
Havoc/Game
10.4
Havoc Rate
16.3%
TO Margin
-0.2
Explosive/G
14.1
Yards/Game
324.7
Pts/Drive
1.86
3rd Down%
34.1%
3&Out%
14.1%
Team Statistics
2022 season totals across 13 games — Kentucky vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
| Stat | Kentucky | Opponents |
|---|---|---|
| Scoring | ||
| Points | 265 | 250 |
| Points / Game | 20.4 | 19.2 |
| First Downs | ||
| Total | 229 | 197 |
| Rushing | 90 | 86 |
| Passing | 116 | 98 |
| Penalty | 23 | 13 |
| Rushing | ||
| Attempts | 463 | 433 |
| Yards | 1,511 | 1,828 |
| Yards / Carry | 3.3 | 4.2 |
| Yards / Game | 116.2 | 140.6 |
| Touchdowns | 9 | 16 |
| Passing | ||
| Attempts | 349 | 347 |
| Completions | 224 | 206 |
| Completion % | 64.2% | 59.4% |
| Yards | 2,710 | 2,220 |
| Yards / Attempt | 7.8 | 6.4 |
| Touchdowns | 21 | 10 |
| Interceptions | 13 | 10 |
| Passer Rating | 141.82 | 116.85 |
| Total Offense | ||
| Plays | 812 | 780 |
| Yards | 4,221 | 4,048 |
| Yards / Play | 5.2 | 5.2 |
| Yards / Game | 324.7 | 311.4 |
| Punt Returns | ||
| Returns | 22 | 12 |
| Yards | 114 | 167 |
| Average | 5.2 | 13.9 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 0 |
| Kickoff Returns | ||
| Returns | 27 | 14 |
| Yards | 506 | 334 |
| Average | 18.7 | 23.9 |
| Touchdowns | 1 | 0 |
| Punting | ||
| Punts | 53 | 59 |
| Yards | 2,128 | 2,492 |
| Average | 40.2 | 42.2 |
| Interception Returns | ||
| Returns | 10 | 13 |
| Yards | 144 | 251 |
| Touchdowns | 1 | 3 |
| Fumbles | ||
| Fumbles | 14 | 10 |
| Lost | 6 | 6 |
| Penalties | ||
| Penalties | 74 | 74 |
| Yards | 514 | 644 |
| Yards / Game | 39.5 | 49.5 |
| Time of Possession | ||
| Per Game | 33:09 | 26:51 |
| Third Downs | ||
| Attempts | 170 | 171 |
| Conversions | 58 | 57 |
| Conversion % | 34.1% | 33.3% |
| Fourth Downs | ||
| Attempts | 26 | 30 |
| Conversions | 16 | 12 |
| Conversion % | 61.5% | 40.0% |
| Red Zone | ||
| Trips | 47 | 33 |
| Scores (TD + FG) | 37 | 27 |
| Score % | 78.7% | 81.8% |
| Touchdowns | 25 | 18 |
| TD % | 53.2% | 54.5% |
| Field Goals | ||
| Attempts | 24 | 16 |
| Made | 16 | 15 |
| Pct | 66.7% | 93.8% |
| PAT Kicking | ||
| Attempts | 27 | 24 |
| Made | 25 | 23 |
| Pct | 92.6% | 95.8% |
| Two-Point Conversions | ||
| Attempts | 5 | 5 |
| Made | 0 | 2 |
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.