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TENN
Tennessee
VolunteersBalancedSoutheastern Conference8-5#44 (+5.60)
Grades
Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.
67· COverall
Offense
55· CRating
28· DPer play
56· CConsistency
45· CBig plays
Defense
72· BRating
73· BPer play
45· CConsistency
Situational
5· FRed-zone O
74· BRed-zone D
65· C3rd down O
54· C3rd down D
Analytical Fingerprint
SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.
Opp-Adj Offense
-0.013
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.086
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
-0.055
Defensive EPA/play
-0.066
lower = better
Off Success Rate
45.8%
Def Success Rate
46.5%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
23.6%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
24.2%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.011
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
+0.129
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.05
Special Teams
Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.
Net ST Rating
+0.84
expected pts/game
Kicking
+0.65
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-0.03
vs opponent kicks
Returns
+0.23
own return game
Return Defense
-0.00
vs opponent returns
Performance vs Perception
Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.
Model Rank
#44
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
—
unavailable
Recruiting Rank
#22
recruiting 22 spots higher
26 blue-chip recruits
Peer Context
Where Tennessee ranks among all FBS teams in 2019 (percentile).
Opp-adjusted offense44th
Opp-adjusted defense80th
Offensive EPA/play28th
Defensive EPA/play74th
Offensive success rate45th
Explosiveness46th
Defensive havoc49th
Points per drive41th
Historical Fingerprint
Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.
1Minnesota2018OA +0.042 / +0.079similar: havoc rate, takeaway rate, run defense4052Utah2017OA -0.009 / +0.071similar: TD drive rate, passing offense, havoc rate3723Louisiana2022OA -0.075 / +0.020similar: havoc rate, pass defense, defensive success rate3714Kentucky2022OA -0.025 / +0.143similar: turnover rate, TD drive rate, offensive EPA3655South Carolina2021OA -0.162 / +0.059similar: defensive EPA, havoc rate, turnover rate358
2019 Schedule & Results
13 games
| Wk | Opponent | Score | W/L | Spread | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | vs Georgia State | 30-38 | L | -4.0 | L | 56 | U |
| 2 | vs BYU | 26-29 | L | -3.0 | L | 51.5 | O |
| 3 | vs Chattanooga | 45-0 | W | -30.5 | W | 50 | U |
| 4 | @ Florida | 3-34 | L | +12.5 | L | 49.5 | U |
| 6 | vs Georgia | 14-43 | L | +24.0 | L | 51 | O |
| 7 | vs Mississippi State | 20-10 | W | +5.0 | W | 52.5 | U |
| 8 | @ Alabama | 13-35 | L | +35.0 | W | 62 | U |
| 9 | vs South Carolina | 41-21 | W | +4.0 | W | 45.5 | O |
| 10 | vs UAB | 30-7 | W | -14.0 | W | 49 | U |
| 11 | @ Kentucky | 17-13 | W | +1.5 | W | 42.5 | U |
| 13 | @ Missouri | 24-20 | W | +3.0 | W | 47 | U |
| 14 | vs Vanderbilt | 28-10 | W | -24.0 | L | 48 | U |
| 19 | vs Indiana | 23-22 | W | - | - | - | - |
Betting Profile
ATS Record
7-5
58.3%
O/U Record
3-9
25.0%
Straight Up
8-4
66.7%
Home ATS4-4
Away ATS3-1
Favorite ATS2-3
Underdog ATS5-2
Last 5 ATS
WWWWL
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.
Situational Profile
Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.
| Situation | OFF EPA | OFF Rank | DEF EPA | DEF Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | -0.083 | 21th | -0.070 | 76th |
| Red Zone | -0.320 | 5th | -0.132 | 74th |
| Third Down | +0.107 | 66th | -0.002 | 54th |
| No Garbage Time | -0.051 | 31th | -0.074 | 75th |
| First Half | -0.024 | 40th | -0.075 | 71th |
| Second Half | -0.146 | 12th | -0.065 | 75th |
| Early Downs | -0.077 | 21th | -0.112 | 87th |
| Passing Downs | +0.072 | 65th | -0.023 | 55th |
| Standard Downs | -0.171 | 6th | -0.095 | 81th |
| Goal to Go | -0.735 | 1th | -0.316 | 85th |
Style & Tendencies
Pass 43.8%Rush 56.2%
Havoc/Game
12.7
Havoc Rate
18.6%
TO Margin
-0.1
Explosive/G
13.5
Yards/Game
365.5
Pts/Drive
2.05
3rd Down%
43.2%
3&Out%
17.4%
Team Statistics
2019 season totals across 13 games — Tennessee vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
| Stat | Tennessee | Opponents |
|---|---|---|
| Scoring | ||
| Points | 314 | 282 |
| Points / Game | 24.2 | 21.7 |
| First Downs | ||
| Total | 241 | 257 |
| Rushing | 92 | 117 |
| Passing | 123 | 115 |
| Penalty | 26 | 25 |
| Rushing | ||
| Attempts | 461 | 493 |
| Yards | 1,874 | 1,826 |
| Yards / Carry | 4.1 | 3.7 |
| Yards / Game | 144.2 | 140.5 |
| Touchdowns | 13 | 17 |
| Passing | ||
| Attempts | 360 | 375 |
| Completions | 200 | 216 |
| Completion % | 55.6% | 57.6% |
| Yards | 2,878 | 2,522 |
| Yards / Attempt | 8.0 | 6.7 |
| Touchdowns | 19 | 14 |
| Interceptions | 13 | 15 |
| Passer Rating | 132.90 | 118.41 |
| Total Offense | ||
| Plays | 821 | 868 |
| Yards | 4,752 | 4,348 |
| Yards / Play | 5.8 | 5.0 |
| Yards / Game | 365.5 | 334.5 |
| Punt Returns | ||
| Returns | 15 | 14 |
| Yards | 235 | 87 |
| Average | 15.7 | 6.2 |
| Touchdowns | 3 | 0 |
| Kickoff Returns | ||
| Returns | 14 | 11 |
| Yards | 290 | 195 |
| Average | 20.7 | 17.7 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 0 |
| Punting | ||
| Punts | 52 | 59 |
| Yards | 2,129 | 2,457 |
| Average | 40.9 | 41.6 |
| Interception Returns | ||
| Returns | 15 | 13 |
| Yards | 174 | 92 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 1 |
| Fumbles | ||
| Fumbles | 16 | 10 |
| Lost | 7 | 4 |
| Penalties | ||
| Penalties | 83 | 83 |
| Yards | 683 | 737 |
| Yards / Game | 52.5 | 56.7 |
| Time of Possession | ||
| Per Game | 29:22 | 30:38 |
| Third Downs | ||
| Attempts | 176 | 183 |
| Conversions | 76 | 72 |
| Conversion % | 43.2% | 39.3% |
| Fourth Downs | ||
| Attempts | 12 | 28 |
| Conversions | 2 | 13 |
| Conversion % | 16.7% | 46.4% |
| Red Zone | ||
| Trips | 47 | 45 |
| Scores (TD + FG) | 37 | 37 |
| Score % | 78.7% | 82.2% |
| Touchdowns | 23 | 27 |
| TD % | 48.9% | 60.0% |
| Field Goals | ||
| Attempts | 27 | 19 |
| Made | 23 | 16 |
| Pct | 85.2% | 84.2% |
| PAT Kicking | ||
| Attempts | 35 | 32 |
| Made | 35 | 30 |
| Pct | 100.0% | 93.8% |
| Two-Point Conversions | ||
| Attempts | 0 | 1 |
| Made | 0 | 0 |
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.