Fourth Down Data
← All Teams
UL

Louisiana

Ragin' CajunsBalanced
Sun Belt Conference6-7#39 (+3.38)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

71· BOverall
Offense
34· DRating
34· DPer play
33· DConsistency
35· DBig plays
Defense
62· CRating
64· CPer play
40· CConsistency
Situational
26· DRed-zone O
54· CRed-zone D
35· D3rd down O
67· C3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
-0.075
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.020
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
-0.064
Defensive EPA/play
-0.059
lower = better
Off Success Rate
44.2%
Def Success Rate
46.3%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
22.6%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
22.0%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
-0.005
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
+0.095
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.00

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
+3.47
expected pts/game
Kicking
+0.70
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+0.68
vs opponent kicks
Returns
+1.50
own return game
Return Defense
+0.58
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#39
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
#72
model 33 higher
Recruiting Rank
#75
model 36 spots higher
0 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where Louisiana ranks among all FBS teams in 2022 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
29th
Opp-adjusted defense
59th
Offensive EPA/play
34th
Defensive EPA/play
64th
Offensive success rate
36th
Explosiveness
36th
Defensive havoc
47th
Points per drive
39th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1South Carolina2021OA -0.162 / +0.059similar: takeaway rate, havoc rate, run defense3972East Carolina2021OA +0.052 / -0.024similar: takeaway rate, pass defense, offensive success rate3903Florida International2019OA -0.030 / -0.046similar: passing offense, TD drive rate, havoc rate3854East Carolina2020OA -0.035 / +0.005similar: run defense, takeaway rate, defensive EPA3775Washington2026OA -0.025 / +0.023similar: pass defense, defensive EPA, offensive EPA373

2022 Schedule & Results

13 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1vs Southeastern Louisiana24-7W-13.5W59.5U
2vs Eastern Michigan49-21W-11.5W56.5O
3@ Rice21-33L-11.0L50.5O
4@ UL Monroe17-21L-9.0L51U
5vs South Alabama17-20L+9.0W47.5U
7@ Marshall23-13W----
8vs Arkansas State38-18W-2.5L43O
9@ Southern Miss24-39L----
10vs Troy17-23L-3.0W59.5U
11vs Georgia Southern36-17W----
12@ Florida State17-49L+24.0L52O
13@ Texas State41-13W-5.5W45O
17@ Houston16-23L----

Betting Profile

ATS Record
7-5-1
58.3%
O/U Record
6-7
46.2%
Straight Up
6-7
46.2%
Home ATS5-1
Away ATS2-4
Favorite ATS5-3
Underdog ATS2-2
Last 5 ATS
LWLWP
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off33thRush Off33thRed Zone Off26th3rd Down Off36thPass Def33thRush Def81thRed Zone Def54th3rd Down Def68th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall-0.06236th-0.06167th
Red Zone-0.13226th-0.05154th
Third Down+0.00336th-0.03968th
No Garbage Time-0.07531th-0.05764th
First Half-0.08333th-0.11581th
Second Half-0.04139th+0.00139th
Early Downs-0.05535th-0.08779th
Passing Downs-0.08633th+0.03433th
Standard Downs-0.04933th-0.10681th
Goal to Go-0.28116th+0.12524th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 49.2%Rush 50.8%
Havoc/Game
12.8
Havoc Rate
18.2%
TO Margin
+0.3
Explosive/G
14.3
Yards/Game
364.4
Pts/Drive
2.00
3rd Down%
38.4%
3&Out%
19.3%

Team Statistics

2022 season totals across 13 games — Louisiana vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatLouisianaOpponents
Scoring
Points340297
Points / Game26.222.8
First Downs
Total255248
Rushing114101
Passing125119
Penalty1628
Rushing
Attempts456464
Yards1,8441,841
Yards / Carry4.04.0
Yards / Game141.8141.6
Touchdowns1018
Passing
Attempts442424
Completions253244
Completion %57.2%57.5%
Yards2,8932,861
Yards / Attempt6.56.7
Touchdowns2718
Interceptions1015
Passer Rating127.85121.16
Total Offense
Plays898888
Yards4,7374,702
Yards / Play5.35.3
Yards / Game364.4361.7
Punt Returns
Returns2917
Yards433117
Average14.96.9
Touchdowns20
Kickoff Returns
Returns2735
Yards474538
Average17.615.4
Touchdowns00
Punting
Punts5268
Yards2,2582,777
Average43.440.8
Interception Returns
Returns1510
Yards232173
Touchdowns11
Fumbles
Fumbles2012
Lost98
Penalties
Penalties8588
Yards724690
Yards / Game55.753.1
Time of Possession
Per Game29:2730:29
Third Downs
Attempts185190
Conversions7175
Conversion %38.4%39.5%
Fourth Downs
Attempts3328
Conversions1714
Conversion %51.5%50.0%
Red Zone
Trips4440
Scores (TD + FG)3435
Score %77.3%87.5%
Touchdowns2425
TD %54.5%62.5%
Field Goals
Attempts2714
Made2012
Pct74.1%85.7%
PAT Kicking
Attempts3933
Made3829
Pct97.4%87.9%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts15
Made01
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →