Fourth Down Data
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ECU

East Carolina

PiratesBalanced
American Conference7-5#60 (+1.42)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

55· COverall
Offense
54· CRating
45· CPer play
17· DConsistency
54· CBig plays
Defense
55· CRating
52· CPer play
66· CConsistency
Situational
8· FRed-zone O
58· CRed-zone D
29· D3rd down O
87· B3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
+0.052
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.024
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
-0.004
Defensive EPA/play
-0.027
lower = better
Off Success Rate
43.7%
Def Success Rate
43.6%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
24.4%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
23.3%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.022
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
+0.047
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.20

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
+0.14
expected pts/game
Kicking
+0.26
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+0.36
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.76
own return game
Return Defense
+0.28
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#60
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
#93
model 33 higher
Recruiting Rank
#72
model 12 spots higher
0 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where East Carolina ranks among all FBS teams in 2021 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
68th
Opp-adjusted defense
37th
Offensive EPA/play
46th
Defensive EPA/play
53th
Offensive success rate
26th
Explosiveness
54th
Defensive havoc
77th
Points per drive
50th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Louisiana2022OA -0.075 / +0.020similar: takeaway rate, pass defense, offensive success rate3902South Alabama2021OA -0.078 / +0.022similar: pass defense, turnover rate, defensive success rate3763Troy2020OA -0.011 / +0.020similar: TD drive rate, offensive EPA, passing offense3524Florida International2025OA -0.074 / -0.025similar: TD drive rate, offensive EPA, defensive EPA3505Southern Miss2017OA -0.034 / -0.038similar: defensive success rate, offensive success rate, offensive EPA347

2021 Schedule & Results

12 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1@ App State19-33L----
2vs South Carolina17-20L-3.5L54.5U
3@ Marshall42-38W+10.0W58O
4vs Charleston Southern31-28W----
5vs Tulane52-29W+4.0W64.5O
6@ UCF16-20L+10.0W67U
8@ Houston24-31L+13.5W58U
9vs South Florida29-14W----
10vs Temple45-3W-15.5W53.75U
11@ Memphis30-29W+5.8W59P
12@ Navy38-35W+14.0L58U
13vs Cincinnati13-35L----

Betting Profile

ATS Record
7-4
63.6%
O/U Record
3-7-1
30.0%
Straight Up
7-5
58.3%
Home ATS3-2
Away ATS4-2
Favorite ATS2-2
Underdog ATS5-2
Last 5 ATS
WWWLL
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off23thRush Off70thRed Zone Off8th3rd Down Off29thPass Def85thRush Def25thRed Zone Def59th3rd Down Def88th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall+0.00347th-0.03155th
Red Zone-0.3118th-0.07659th
Third Down-0.01829th-0.15088th
No Garbage Time-0.01144th-0.02652th
First Half+0.01650th+0.03135th
Second Half-0.01042th-0.09983th
Early Downs-0.04034th+0.01037th
Passing Downs-0.10023th-0.17585th
Standard Downs+0.05870th+0.05125th
Goal to Go-0.4265th+0.22716th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 47.2%Rush 52.8%
Havoc/Game
14.0
Havoc Rate
20.4%
TO Margin
0.0
Explosive/G
17.1
Yards/Game
433.2
Pts/Drive
2.20
3rd Down%
34.6%
3&Out%
20.8%

Team Statistics

2021 season totals across 12 games — East Carolina vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatEast CarolinaOpponents
Scoring
Points356315
Points / Game29.726.3
First Downs
Total264233
Rushing102100
Passing141115
Penalty2118
Rushing
Attempts475412
Yards1,9451,940
Yards / Carry4.14.7
Yards / Game162.1161.7
Touchdowns2020
Passing
Attempts424378
Completions261225
Completion %61.6%59.5%
Yards3,2532,782
Yards / Attempt7.77.4
Touchdowns2117
Interceptions1115
Passer Rating137.16128.25
Total Offense
Plays899790
Yards5,1984,722
Yards / Play5.86.0
Yards / Game433.2393.5
Punt Returns
Returns128
Yards8135
Average6.84.4
Touchdowns00
Kickoff Returns
Returns2138
Yards418866
Average19.922.8
Touchdowns02
Punting
Punts5559
Yards2,2952,516
Average41.742.6
Interception Returns
Returns1511
Yards147143
Touchdowns21
Fumbles
Fumbles2011
Lost117
Penalties
Penalties6368
Yards591594
Yards / Game49.349.5
Time of Possession
Per Game32:3328:42
Third Downs
Attempts191152
Conversions6649
Conversion %34.6%32.2%
Fourth Downs
Attempts3617
Conversions2611
Conversion %72.2%64.7%
Red Zone
Trips4541
Scores (TD + FG)3932
Score %86.7%78.0%
Touchdowns2225
TD %48.9%61.0%
Field Goals
Attempts2319
Made1910
Pct82.6%52.6%
PAT Kicking
Attempts4136
Made3935
Pct95.1%97.2%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts25
Made12
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →