Fourth Down Data
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South Alabama

JaguarsBalanced
Sun Belt Conference5-7#100 (-3.77)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

25· DOverall
Offense
27· DRating
28· DPer play
23· DConsistency
45· CBig plays
Defense
63· CRating
86· BPer play
63· CConsistency
Situational
26· DRed-zone O
80· BRed-zone D
48· C3rd down O
82· B3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
-0.078
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.022
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
-0.061
Defensive EPA/play
-0.113
lower = better
Off Success Rate
42.6%
Def Success Rate
43.9%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
23.8%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
23.4%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.052
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.136
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
1.98

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
-3.35
expected pts/game
Kicking
-0.70
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-0.49
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-1.38
own return game
Return Defense
-0.77
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#100
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
#92
market 8 higher
Recruiting Rank
#72
recruiting 28 spots higher
0 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where South Alabama ranks among all FBS teams in 2021 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
22th
Opp-adjusted defense
62th
Offensive EPA/play
28th
Defensive EPA/play
87th
Offensive success rate
14th
Explosiveness
45th
Defensive havoc
59th
Points per drive
35th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Northwestern2020OA -0.022 / +0.067similar: offensive EPA, passing offense, turnover rate4112East Carolina2021OA +0.052 / -0.024similar: pass defense, turnover rate, defensive success rate3763Troy2025OA -0.100 / +0.021similar: passing offense, havoc rate, offensive success rate3484Florida Atlantic2021OA -0.078 / +0.062similar: defensive success rate, TD drive rate, offensive EPA3485Middle Tennessee2018OA +0.025 / +0.049similar: TD drive rate, rushing offense, defensive EPA342

2021 Schedule & Results

12 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1vs Southern Miss31-7W-1.0W56.5U
2@ Bowling Green22-19W-14.5L52U
3vs Alcorn State28-21W----
5vs Louisiana18-20L+12.5W53U
6@ Texas State31-33L-3.0W50O
7vs Georgia Southern41-14W----
8@ UL Monroe31-41L-13.5L51O
9vs Arkansas State31-13W-9.0W66U
10@ Troy24-31L+4.0L48O
11@ App State7-31L+22.5L52.5U
12@ Tennessee14-60L+15.0W56U
13vs Coastal Carolina21-27L----

Betting Profile

ATS Record
5-6
45.5%
O/U Record
5-6
45.5%
Straight Up
5-7
41.7%
Home ATS5-0
Away ATS0-6
Favorite ATS3-3
Underdog ATS2-3
Last 5 ATS
WLLLW
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off11thRush Off53thRed Zone Off26th3rd Down Off48thPass Def74thRush Def73thRed Zone Def81th3rd Down Def83th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall-0.06128th-0.08684th
Red Zone-0.14826th-0.18281th
Third Down+0.07348th-0.12783th
No Garbage Time-0.06129th-0.09383th
First Half-0.05631th-0.08677th
Second Half-0.06724th-0.08780th
Early Downs+0.00153th-0.08476th
Passing Downs-0.18011th-0.10374th
Standard Downs+0.00953th-0.07773th
Goal to Go-0.16730th+0.06439th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 48.1%Rush 51.9%
Havoc/Game
13.2
Havoc Rate
19.4%
TO Margin
+0.4
Explosive/G
15.5
Yards/Game
367.4
Pts/Drive
1.98
3rd Down%
30.3%
3&Out%
22.4%

Team Statistics

2021 season totals across 12 games — South Alabama vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatSouth AlabamaOpponents
Scoring
Points299317
Points / Game24.926.4
First Downs
Total229218
Rushing7896
Passing131103
Penalty2019
Rushing
Attempts439441
Yards1,3371,755
Yards / Carry3.04.0
Yards / Game111.4146.3
Touchdowns1521
Passing
Attempts407346
Completions273206
Completion %67.1%59.5%
Yards3,0722,501
Yards / Attempt7.57.2
Touchdowns2213
Interceptions1115
Passer Rating142.91123.98
Total Offense
Plays846787
Yards4,4094,256
Yards / Play5.25.4
Yards / Game367.4354.7
Punt Returns
Returns1221
Yards58177
Average4.88.4
Touchdowns00
Kickoff Returns
Returns1928
Yards319782
Average16.827.9
Touchdowns02
Punting
Punts5458
Yards2,2922,443
Average42.442.1
Interception Returns
Returns1511
Yards173198
Touchdowns13
Fumbles
Fumbles1317
Lost910
Penalties
Penalties5878
Yards526683
Yards / Game43.856.9
Time of Possession
Per Game32:0927:41
Third Downs
Attempts175159
Conversions5354
Conversion %30.3%34.0%
Fourth Downs
Attempts4623
Conversions2814
Conversion %60.9%60.9%
Red Zone
Trips5041
Scores (TD + FG)3731
Score %74.0%75.6%
Touchdowns3024
TD %60.0%58.5%
Field Goals
Attempts1714
Made1210
Pct70.6%71.4%
PAT Kicking
Attempts3538
Made3335
Pct94.3%92.1%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts54
Made13
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →