Fourth Down Data
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NU

Northwestern

WildcatsRun-Heavy
Big Ten Conference7-2#28 (+5.25)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

78· BOverall
Offense
26· DRating
27· DPer play
26· DConsistency
12· FBig plays
Defense
99· A+Rating
95· APer play
84· BConsistency
Situational
56· CRed-zone O
98· A+Red-zone D
62· C3rd down O
97· A+3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
-0.022
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.067
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
-0.047
Defensive EPA/play
-0.173
lower = better
Off Success Rate
45.3%
Def Success Rate
42.6%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
20.9%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
21.1%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.125
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
+0.054
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
1.90

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
+0.51
expected pts/game
Kicking
+0.20
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-0.12
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.32
own return game
Return Defense
+0.75
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#28
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
#10
AP 18 spots higher
Market (Vegas)
#45
model 17 higher
Recruiting Rank
—
no recruiting profile

Peer Context

Where Northwestern ranks among all FBS teams in 2020 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
26th
Opp-adjusted defense
98th
Offensive EPA/play
27th
Defensive EPA/play
96th
Offensive success rate
29th
Explosiveness
12th
Defensive havoc
64th
Points per drive
29th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1South Alabama2021OA -0.078 / +0.022similar: offensive EPA, passing offense, turnover rate4112Clemson2023OA -0.056 / +0.214similar: pass defense, turnover rate, takeaway rate3853Sam Houston2024OA -0.024 / +0.065similar: pass defense, offensive EPA, offensive success rate3774Middle Tennessee2021OA -0.066 / +0.065similar: offensive EPA, defensive success rate, pass defense3735Iowa2017OA -0.004 / +0.093similar: offensive EPA, pass defense, rushing offense368

2020 Schedule & Results

9 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
8vs Maryland43-3W-11.0W54.5U
9@ Iowa21-20W+2.5W46.5U
10vs Nebraska21-13W-3.5W54.5U
11@ Purdue27-20W-3.0W50.5U
12vs Wisconsin17-7W+7.5W44U
13@ Michigan State20-29L-13.0L41.5O
15vs Illinois28-10W-13.5W41U
16@ Ohio State10-22L+19.0W56U
18vs Auburn35-19W----

Betting Profile

ATS Record
8-1
88.9%
O/U Record
2-7
22.2%
Straight Up
7-2
77.8%
Home ATS5-0
Away ATS3-1
Favorite ATS5-1
Underdog ATS3-0
Last 5 ATS
WLWWW
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off46thRush Off18thRed Zone Off57th3rd Down Off63thPass Def93thRush Def90thRed Zone Def99th3rd Down Def98th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall-0.04427th-0.15097th
Red Zone+0.02357th-0.48899th
Third Down+0.13763th-0.45698th
No Garbage Time-0.04428th-0.17798th
First Half-0.01841th-0.12790th
Second Half-0.07327th-0.17391th
Early Downs-0.11212th-0.11084th
Passing Downs+0.02246th-0.17393th
Standard Downs-0.07918th-0.13690th
Goal to Go+0.43091th-0.52796th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 41.9%Rush 58.1%
Havoc/Game
14.2
Havoc Rate
19.8%
TO Margin
+0.4
Explosive/G
14.8
Yards/Game
360.7
Pts/Drive
1.90
3rd Down%
39.3%
3&Out%
20.9%

Team Statistics

2020 season totals across 9 games — Northwestern vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatNorthwesternOpponents
Scoring
Points222143
Points / Game24.715.9
First Downs
Total183171
Rushing7178
Passing9780
Penalty1513
Rushing
Attempts394295
Yards1,4651,313
Yards / Carry3.74.5
Yards / Game162.8145.9
Touchdowns165
Passing
Attempts284337
Completions174175
Completion %61.3%51.9%
Yards1,7811,758
Yards / Attempt6.35.2
Touchdowns128
Interceptions814
Passer Rating122.2595.27
Total Offense
Plays678632
Yards3,2463,071
Yards / Play4.84.9
Yards / Game360.7341.2
Punt Returns
Returns1011
Yards6632
Average6.62.9
Touchdowns00
Kickoff Returns
Returns1024
Yards235437
Average23.518.2
Touchdowns00
Punting
Punts4546
Yards1,8831,921
Average41.841.8
Interception Returns
Returns148
Yards27104
Touchdowns00
Fumbles
Fumbles1212
Lost75
Penalties
Penalties4554
Yards364433
Yards / Game40.448.1
Time of Possession
Per Game31:1328:34
Third Downs
Attempts150134
Conversions5940
Conversion %39.3%29.9%
Fourth Downs
Attempts2618
Conversions1810
Conversion %69.2%55.6%
Red Zone
Trips3327
Scores (TD + FG)2619
Score %78.8%70.4%
Touchdowns218
TD %63.6%29.6%
Field Goals
Attempts1222
Made916
Pct75.0%72.7%
PAT Kicking
Attempts2811
Made2711
Pct96.4%100.0%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts02
Made00
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →