Fourth Down Data
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MTSU

Middle Tennessee

Blue RaidersBalanced
Conference USA7-6#70 (-0.21)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

48· COverall
Offense
31· DRating
28· DPer play
45· CConsistency
29· DBig plays
Defense
60· CRating
89· BPer play
85· BConsistency
Situational
62· CRed-zone O
22· DRed-zone D
19· D3rd down O
92· A-3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
-0.066
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.065
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
-0.060
Defensive EPA/play
-0.125
lower = better
Off Success Rate
45.3%
Def Success Rate
41.3%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
22.9%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
23.6%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.065
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
+0.055
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
1.97

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
+1.39
expected pts/game
Kicking
+0.01
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+0.34
vs opponent kicks
Returns
+0.45
own return game
Return Defense
+0.59
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#70
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
#97
model 27 higher
Recruiting Rank
#72
model 2 spots higher
0 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where Middle Tennessee ranks among all FBS teams in 2021 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
26th
Opp-adjusted defense
77th
Offensive EPA/play
29th
Defensive EPA/play
90th
Offensive success rate
42th
Explosiveness
29th
Defensive havoc
88th
Points per drive
33th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Central Michigan2017OA -0.059 / +0.044similar: pass defense, defensive success rate, rushing offense4122Washington State2017OA -0.126 / +0.165similar: havoc rate, pass defense, offensive EPA3923Clemson2023OA -0.056 / +0.214similar: run defense, offensive EPA, pass defense3744Northwestern2020OA -0.022 / +0.067similar: offensive EPA, defensive success rate, pass defense3735Toledo2025OA -0.058 / +0.113similar: pass defense, defensive success rate, run defense372

2021 Schedule & Results

13 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1vs Monmouth (NJ)50-15W----
2@ Virginia Tech14-35L+19.5L53.5U
3@ UTSA13-27L+3.0P55.75O
4@ Charlotte39-42L----
5vs Marshall34-28W+10.0W65.75U
6@ Liberty13-41L+19.5L58U
8@ UConn44-13W----
9vs Southern Miss35-10W-13.5W48U
10@ Western Kentucky21-48L+14.8L68.5O
11vs Florida International50-10W-10.0W56O
12vs Old Dominion17-24L-3.5L50.5U
13@ Florida Atlantic27-17W+3.5W49.5U
16@ Toledo31-24W----

Betting Profile

ATS Record
7-4-1
63.6%
O/U Record
6-6
50.0%
Straight Up
7-6
53.8%
Home ATS3-1
Away ATS4-3
Favorite ATS3-1
Underdog ATS4-3
Last 5 ATS
LWLWW
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off36thRush Off18thRed Zone Off63th3rd Down Off19thPass Def98thRush Def81thRed Zone Def22th3rd Down Def92th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall-0.07123th-0.15595th
Red Zone+0.03963th+0.11522th
Third Down-0.09319th-0.22092th
No Garbage Time-0.06328th-0.12491th
First Half-0.04833th-0.14690th
Second Half-0.09517th-0.16492th
Early Downs-0.08023th-0.12792th
Passing Downs-0.05236th-0.26998th
Standard Downs-0.08218th-0.09181th
Goal to Go-0.26018th+0.15725th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 50.3%Rush 49.7%
Havoc/Game
16.3
Havoc Rate
21.9%
TO Margin
+0.8
Explosive/G
13.8
Yards/Game
357.5
Pts/Drive
1.97
3rd Down%
31.5%
3&Out%
22.9%

Team Statistics

2021 season totals across 13 games — Middle Tennessee vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatMiddle TennesseeOpponents
Scoring
Points388334
Points / Game29.825.7
First Downs
Total258264
Rushing101111
Passing136135
Penalty2118
Rushing
Attempts457450
Yards1,6081,768
Yards / Carry3.53.9
Yards / Game123.7136.0
Touchdowns1517
Passing
Attempts463491
Completions296287
Completion %63.9%58.5%
Yards3,0403,075
Yards / Attempt6.66.3
Touchdowns2823
Interceptions1317
Passer Rating133.43119.59
Total Offense
Plays920941
Yards4,6484,843
Yards / Play5.15.1
Yards / Game357.5372.5
Punt Returns
Returns2325
Yards337231
Average14.79.2
Touchdowns20
Kickoff Returns
Returns1649
Yards333937
Average20.819.1
Touchdowns00
Punting
Punts6965
Yards3,0602,741
Average44.342.2
Interception Returns
Returns1713
Yards314164
Touchdowns31
Fumbles
Fumbles1922
Lost815
Penalties
Penalties8681
Yards744666
Yards / Game57.251.2
Time of Possession
Per Game30:0629:47
Third Downs
Attempts184190
Conversions5870
Conversion %31.5%36.8%
Fourth Downs
Attempts3126
Conversions1514
Conversion %48.4%53.8%
Red Zone
Trips4542
Scores (TD + FG)3736
Score %82.2%85.7%
Touchdowns2829
TD %62.2%69.0%
Field Goals
Attempts1417
Made1012
Pct71.4%70.6%
PAT Kicking
Attempts4740
Made4640
Pct97.9%100.0%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts42
Made22
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →