Fourth Down Data
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USM

Southern Miss

Golden EaglesBalanced
Sun Belt Conference8-5#97 (-7.75)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

28· DOverall
Offense
32· DRating
39· DPer play
20· DConsistency
56· CBig plays
Defense
34· DRating
59· CPer play
70· BConsistency
Situational
11· FRed-zone O
15· DRed-zone D
47· C3rd down O
83· B3rd down D
How grades work →2017 is the earliest season the model grades — first-year numbers run a touch noisier than later seasons.

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
-0.034
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.038
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
-0.041
Defensive EPA/play
-0.058
lower = better
Off Success Rate
43.8%
Def Success Rate
42.6%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
23.6%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
22.6%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.017
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
+0.058
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.00

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
-1.03
expected pts/game
Kicking
-0.14
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-0.82
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.09
own return game
Return Defense
+0.02
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#97
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
—
unavailable
Recruiting Rank
#75
recruiting 22 spots higher
0 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where Southern Miss ranks among all FBS teams in 2017 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
37th
Opp-adjusted defense
41th
Offensive EPA/play
39th
Defensive EPA/play
59th
Offensive success rate
22th
Explosiveness
56th
Defensive havoc
83th
Points per drive
41th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Missouri2022OA -0.024 / +0.119similar: passing offense, takeaway rate, run defense4142TCU2020OA -0.008 / +0.043similar: pass defense, offensive success rate, TD drive rate3713Arizona State2025OA +0.006 / +0.099similar: takeaway rate, rushing offense, defensive success rate3614Texas A&M2017OA -0.004 / +0.039similar: run defense, offensive success rate, defensive success rate3495Wake Forest2025OA -0.067 / +0.116similar: pass defense, havoc rate, turnover rate348

2017 Schedule & Results

13 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1vs Kentucky17-24L+13.0L48.5O
2vs Southern45-0W-28.5W--
3@ UL Monroe28-17W-7.5W55U
5vs North Texas28-43L-7.5L56.5O
6@ UTSA31-29W+10.5W50O
7vs UTEP24-0W-23.0W52.5U
8@ Louisiana Tech34-27W-1.0W55.5O
9vs UAB12-30L-11.5L51.5U
10@ Tennessee10-24L+7.0L48.5U
11@ Rice43-34W-10.5L49O
12vs Charlotte66-21W-17.5W48.5O
13@ Marshall28-27W+2.0W48O
18@ Florida State13-42L----

Betting Profile

ATS Record
7-5
58.3%
O/U Record
7-4
63.6%
Straight Up
8-4
66.7%
Home ATS3-2
Away ATS4-3
Favorite ATS5-3
Underdog ATS2-2
Last 5 ATS
LLLWW
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off49thRush Off47thRed Zone Off11th3rd Down Off47thPass Def63thRush Def64thRed Zone Def15th3rd Down Def83th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall-0.03544th-0.06965th
Red Zone-0.18611th+0.17415th
Third Down-0.02147th-0.24983th
No Garbage Time-0.04938th-0.04956th
First Half-0.03744th-0.10470th
Second Half-0.03346th-0.03254th
Early Downs-0.05043th-0.10780th
Passing Downs-0.02949th-0.06763th
Standard Downs-0.03947th-0.07064th
Goal to Go-0.26314th+0.15323th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 46.9%Rush 53.1%
Havoc/Game
14.6
Havoc Rate
21.9%
TO Margin
-0.1
Explosive/G
15.4
Yards/Game
424.6
Pts/Drive
2.00
3rd Down%
37.3%
3&Out%
22.9%

Team Statistics

2017 season totals across 13 games — Southern Miss vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatSouthern MissOpponents
Scoring
Points379318
Points / Game29.224.5
First Downs
Total276229
Rushing12095
Passing132107
Penalty2427
Rushing
Attempts498478
Yards2,3991,800
Yards / Carry4.83.8
Yards / Game184.5138.5
Touchdowns1921
Passing
Attempts439377
Completions246198
Completion %56.0%52.5%
Yards3,1212,515
Yards / Attempt7.16.7
Touchdowns2416
Interceptions79
Passer Rating130.61117.79
Total Offense
Plays937855
Yards5,5204,315
Yards / Play5.95.0
Yards / Game424.6331.9
Punt Returns
Returns1915
Yards11087
Average5.85.8
Touchdowns00
Kickoff Returns
Returns3932
Yards767781
Average19.724.4
Touchdowns00
Punting
Punts6782
Yards2,6873,371
Average40.141.1
Interception Returns
Returns97
Yards260133
Touchdowns32
Fumbles
Fumbles1717
Lost129
Penalties
Penalties9964
Yards872577
Yards / Game67.144.4
Time of Possession
Per Game30:1829:42
Third Downs
Attempts193188
Conversions7265
Conversion %37.3%34.6%
Fourth Downs
Attempts2318
Conversions128
Conversion %52.2%44.4%
Red Zone
Trips4442
Scores (TD + FG)3635
Score %81.8%83.3%
Touchdowns2329
TD %52.3%69.0%
Field Goals
Attempts2018
Made1715
Pct85.0%83.3%
PAT Kicking
Attempts4435
Made4233
Pct95.5%94.3%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts35
Made20
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →