Fourth Down Data
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WAKE

Wake Forest

Demon DeaconsBalanced
Atlantic Coast Conference9-4#41 (+6.02)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

70· BOverall
Offense
43· CRating
23· DPer play
11· FConsistency
50· CBig plays
Defense
86· BRating
87· BPer play
95· AConsistency
Situational
23· DRed-zone O
78· BRed-zone D
67· C3rd down O
44· C3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
-0.067
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.116
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
-0.084
Defensive EPA/play
-0.113
lower = better
Off Success Rate
41.3%
Def Success Rate
39.7%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
22.7%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
19.6%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.029
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
+0.271
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
1.94

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
+0.01
expected pts/game
Kicking
-0.56
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+0.34
vs opponent kicks
Returns
+0.23
own return game
Return Defense
+0.01
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#41
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
#67
model 26 higher
Recruiting Rank
#65
model 24 spots higher
3 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where Wake Forest ranks among all FBS teams in 2025 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
25th
Opp-adjusted defense
88th
Offensive EPA/play
22th
Defensive EPA/play
87th
Offensive success rate
11th
Explosiveness
50th
Defensive havoc
78th
Points per drive
33th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1TCU2020OA -0.008 / +0.043similar: defensive EPA, takeaway rate, defensive success rate4172UAB2019OA -0.120 / +0.036similar: TD drive rate, offensive EPA, passing offense3673Temple2019OA -0.103 / +0.056similar: offensive EPA, pass defense, run defense3674Utah2023OA -0.066 / +0.115similar: takeaway rate, defensive success rate, offensive EPA3675Michigan2017OA -0.033 / +0.192similar: offensive EPA, run defense, defensive success rate359

2025 Schedule & Results

13 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1vs Kennesaw State10-9W----
2vs Western Carolina42-10W+7.5L52.5O
3vs NC State24-34L----
5vs Georgia Tech29-30L+14.0W52.5O
6@ Virginia Tech30-23W+6.0W51.5O
7@ Oregon State39-14W-24.5W45.5O
9vs SMU13-12W+3.5W53.5U
10@ Florida State7-42L+11.0L51U
11@ Virginia16-9W+6.5W48U
12vs North Carolina28-12W-7.5W41.5U
13vs Delaware52-14W-17.5W50.5O
14@ Duke32-49L+7.5L58.5O
19@ Mississippi State43-29W----

Betting Profile

ATS Record
9-4
69.2%
O/U Record
7-6
53.8%
Straight Up
9-4
69.2%
Home ATS5-2
Away ATS4-2
Favorite ATS4-1
Underdog ATS5-3
Last 5 ATS
WWWLW
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off33thRush Off16thRed Zone Off24th3rd Down Off67thPass Def77thRush Def78thRed Zone Def79th3rd Down Def44th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall-0.07727th-0.09282th
Red Zone-0.12624th-0.13779th
Third Down+0.17467th+0.09544th
No Garbage Time-0.08024th-0.12188th
First Half-0.06724th-0.16593th
Second Half-0.08919th-0.01850th
Early Downs-0.09415th-0.09079th
Passing Downs-0.08033th-0.10777th
Standard Downs-0.07516th-0.08378th
Goal to Go-0.4654th-0.07858th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 47.2%Rush 52.8%
Havoc/Game
14.8
Havoc Rate
20.4%
TO Margin
-0.5
Explosive/G
13.5
Yards/Game
393.8
Pts/Drive
1.94
3rd Down%
40.2%
3&Out%
22.1%

Team Statistics

2025 season totals across 13 games — Wake Forest vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatWake ForestOpponents
Scoring
Points365287
Points / Game28.122.1
First Downs
Total247243
Rushing11093
Passing119115
Penalty1835
Rushing
Attempts454467
Yards2,0301,581
Yards / Carry4.53.4
Yards / Game156.2121.6
Touchdowns2318
Passing
Attempts406457
Completions232270
Completion %57.1%59.1%
Yards3,0902,690
Yards / Attempt7.65.9
Touchdowns1812
Interceptions114
Passer Rating130.29115.44
Total Offense
Plays860924
Yards5,1204,271
Yards / Play6.04.6
Yards / Game393.8328.5
Punt Returns
Returns2313
Yards254154
Average11.011.8
Touchdowns10
Kickoff Returns
Returns1914
Yards526309
Average27.722.1
Touchdowns20
Punting
Punts6467
Yards2,4022,938
Average37.543.9
Interception Returns
Returns411
Yards8145
Touchdowns01
Fumbles
Fumbles2616
Lost1011
Penalties
Penalties9674
Yards903667
Yards / Game69.551.3
Time of Possession
Per Game29:0430:56
Third Downs
Attempts189205
Conversions7673
Conversion %40.2%35.6%
Fourth Downs
Attempts2131
Conversions1213
Conversion %57.1%41.9%
Red Zone
Trips4253
Scores (TD + FG)3243
Score %76.2%81.1%
Touchdowns2225
TD %52.4%47.2%
Field Goals
Attempts2229
Made1823
Pct81.8%79.3%
PAT Kicking
Attempts3630
Made3528
Pct97.2%93.3%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts81
Made51
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →