Fourth Down Data
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MICH

Michigan

WolverinesRun-Heavy
Big Ten Conference8-5#12 (+17.92)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

91· A-Overall
Offense
66· CRating
22· DPer play
14· FConsistency
31· DBig plays
Defense
92· A-Rating
96· APer play
98· A+Consistency
Situational
25· DRed-zone O
57· CRed-zone D
10· F3rd down O
92· A-3rd down D
How grades work →2017 is the earliest season the model grades — first-year numbers run a touch noisier than later seasons.

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
-0.033
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.192
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
-0.103
Defensive EPA/play
-0.220
lower = better
Off Success Rate
41.5%
Def Success Rate
38.9%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
22.0%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
21.0%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.117
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.151
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
1.85

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
+1.08
expected pts/game
Kicking
+0.66
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+0.32
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.08
own return game
Return Defense
+0.17
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#12
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
model 14 spots higher
Market (Vegas)
—
unavailable
Recruiting Rank
#8
recruiting 4 spots higher
49 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where Michigan ranks among all FBS teams in 2017 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
38th
Opp-adjusted defense
97th
Offensive EPA/play
22th
Defensive EPA/play
97th
Offensive success rate
8th
Explosiveness
32th
Defensive havoc
100th
Points per drive
31th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Pittsburgh2019OA -0.088 / +0.099similar: run defense, havoc rate, takeaway rate3842Northern Illinois2017OA -0.083 / +0.118similar: defensive EPA, offensive EPA, passing offense3803Utah2023OA -0.066 / +0.115similar: TD drive rate, offensive EPA, defensive success rate3774Florida Atlantic2020OA -0.038 / +0.056similar: offensive success rate, defensive success rate, turnover rate3735San Diego State2020OA -0.027 / +0.060similar: offensive EPA, TD drive rate, defensive EPA371

2017 Schedule & Results

13 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1@ Florida33-17W-9.0L41.5O
2vs Cincinnati36-14W-32.5L50P
3vs Air Force29-13W-23.0L51.5U
4@ Purdue28-10W-13.5W51U
6vs Michigan State10-14L-13.0L40U
7@ Indiana27-20W-7.0P44O
8@ Penn State13-42L+7.5L42O
9vs Rutgers35-14W-22.0L43O
10vs Minnesota33-10W-16.5W38.5O
11@ Maryland35-10W-14.5W48U
12@ Wisconsin10-24L+6.5L41U
13vs Ohio State20-31L+12.5W49.5O
18@ South Carolina19-26L----

Betting Profile

ATS Record
4-7-1
36.4%
O/U Record
6-5-1
54.5%
Straight Up
7-5
58.3%
Home ATS2-4
Away ATS2-3
Favorite ATS3-5
Underdog ATS1-2
Last 5 ATS
LWWLW
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off33thRush Off8thRed Zone Off25th3rd Down Off11thPass Def95thRush Def91thRed Zone Def58th3rd Down Def92th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall-0.12314th-0.19996th
Red Zone-0.10525th-0.04558th
Third Down-0.34911th-0.34492th
No Garbage Time-0.10123th-0.22097th
First Half-0.08825th-0.21595th
Second Half-0.15912th-0.18592th
Early Downs-0.13311th-0.10780th
Passing Downs-0.07233th-0.25395th
Standard Downs-0.1548th-0.16591th
Goal to Go-0.26016th-0.28484th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 39.5%Rush 60.5%
Havoc/Game
17.6
Havoc Rate
28.1%
TO Margin
-0.3
Explosive/G
14.0
Yards/Game
348.9
Pts/Drive
1.85
3rd Down%
32.6%
3&Out%
25.8%

Team Statistics

2017 season totals across 13 games — Michigan vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatMichiganOpponents
Scoring
Points328245
Points / Game25.218.8
First Downs
Total227179
Rushing11579
Passing9675
Penalty1625
Rushing
Attempts529451
Yards2,3101,572
Yards / Carry4.43.5
Yards / Game177.7120.9
Touchdowns2616
Passing
Attempts346328
Completions185160
Completion %53.5%48.8%
Yards2,2261,951
Yards / Attempt6.45.9
Touchdowns911
Interceptions1010
Passer Rating110.31103.71
Total Offense
Plays875779
Yards4,5363,523
Yards / Play5.24.5
Yards / Game348.9271.0
Punt Returns
Returns4222
Yards328198
Average7.89.0
Touchdowns11
Kickoff Returns
Returns3137
Yards577555
Average18.615.0
Touchdowns00
Punting
Punts7897
Yards3,0854,021
Average39.641.5
Interception Returns
Returns1010
Yards206147
Touchdowns22
Fumbles
Fumbles1820
Lost117
Penalties
Penalties8670
Yards743599
Yards / Game57.246.1
Time of Possession
Per Game31:5728:03
Third Downs
Attempts190180
Conversions6247
Conversion %32.6%26.1%
Fourth Downs
Attempts1611
Conversions95
Conversion %56.3%45.5%
Red Zone
Trips4430
Scores (TD + FG)3725
Score %84.1%83.3%
Touchdowns2318
TD %52.3%60.0%
Field Goals
Attempts2419
Made1912
Pct79.2%63.2%
PAT Kicking
Attempts3829
Made3529
Pct92.1%100.0%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts11
Made00
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →