← All Teams
PITT
Pittsburgh
PanthersBalancedAtlantic Coast Conference8-5#65 (-0.20)
Grades
Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.
52· COverall
Offense
20· DRating
16· DPer play
21· DConsistency
8· FBig plays
Defense
80· BRating
83· BPer play
93· AConsistency
Situational
10· FRed-zone O
84· BRed-zone D
21· D3rd down O
60· C3rd down D
Analytical Fingerprint
SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.
Opp-Adj Offense
-0.088
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.099
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
-0.110
Defensive EPA/play
-0.107
lower = better
Off Success Rate
42.4%
Def Success Rate
40.7%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
20.6%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
20.2%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
-0.003
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.116
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
1.55
Special Teams
Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.
Net ST Rating
-0.93
expected pts/game
Kicking
-0.29
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-0.45
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.09
own return game
Return Defense
-0.10
vs opponent returns
Performance vs Perception
Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.
Model Rank
#65
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
—
unavailable
Recruiting Rank
#38
recruiting 27 spots higher
7 blue-chip recruits
Peer Context
Where Pittsburgh ranks among all FBS teams in 2019 (percentile).
Opp-adjusted offense15th
Opp-adjusted defense84th
Offensive EPA/play16th
Defensive EPA/play84th
Offensive success rate17th
Explosiveness8th
Defensive havoc98th
Points per drive13th
Historical Fingerprint
Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.
1NC State2022OA -0.072 / +0.114similar: run defense, rushing offense, offensive EPA4082Marshall2023OA -0.105 / +0.027similar: rushing offense, TD drive rate, pass defense4043Michigan State2019OA -0.016 / +0.106similar: rushing offense, passing offense, defensive EPA4014Oklahoma2025OA -0.037 / +0.168similar: rushing offense, offensive EPA, pass defense3865Michigan2017OA -0.033 / +0.192similar: run defense, havoc rate, takeaway rate384
2019 Schedule & Results
13 games
| Wk | Opponent | Score | W/L | Spread | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | vs Virginia | 14-30 | L | -12.5 | L | 51 | O |
| 2 | vs Ohio | 20-10 | W | -4.0 | W | 54 | U |
| 3 | @ Penn State | 10-17 | L | +17.0 | W | 53.5 | U |
| 4 | vs UCF | 35-34 | W | +9.0 | W | 60.5 | O |
| 5 | vs Delaware | 17-14 | W | -28.5 | L | 50.5 | U |
| 6 | @ Duke | 33-30 | W | +3.5 | W | 48.5 | O |
| 8 | @ Syracuse | 27-20 | W | -3.5 | W | 52.5 | U |
| 9 | vs Miami | 12-16 | L | -4.5 | L | 43 | U |
| 10 | @ Georgia Tech | 20-10 | W | -9.5 | W | 44 | U |
| 12 | vs North Carolina | 34-27 | W | -4.0 | W | 48.5 | O |
| 13 | @ Virginia Tech | 0-28 | L | +4.0 | L | 43.5 | U |
| 14 | vs Boston College | 19-26 | L | -8.0 | L | 52 | U |
| 18 | @ Eastern Michigan | 34-30 | W | - | - | - | - |
Betting Profile
ATS Record
7-5
58.3%
O/U Record
4-8
33.3%
Straight Up
8-4
66.7%
Home ATS3-3
Away ATS4-2
Favorite ATS4-4
Underdog ATS3-1
Last 5 ATS
LWWLL
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.
Situational Profile
Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.
| Situation | OFF EPA | OFF Rank | DEF EPA | DEF Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | -0.112 | 13th | -0.109 | 87th |
| Red Zone | -0.260 | 10th | -0.212 | 85th |
| Third Down | -0.117 | 22th | -0.014 | 60th |
| No Garbage Time | -0.108 | 16th | -0.109 | 84th |
| First Half | -0.033 | 33th | -0.152 | 90th |
| Second Half | -0.202 | 4th | -0.066 | 76th |
| Early Downs | -0.114 | 12th | -0.133 | 93th |
| Passing Downs | -0.101 | 25th | -0.096 | 81th |
| Standard Downs | -0.118 | 16th | -0.118 | 89th |
| Goal to Go | -0.392 | 8th | +0.037 | 39th |
Style & Tendencies
Pass 53.8%Rush 46.2%
Havoc/Game
18.8
Havoc Rate
26.1%
TO Margin
-0.6
Explosive/G
14.8
Yards/Game
380.5
Pts/Drive
1.55
3rd Down%
39.8%
3&Out%
23.1%
Team Statistics
2019 season totals across 13 games — Pittsburgh vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
| Stat | Pittsburgh | Opponents |
|---|---|---|
| Scoring | ||
| Points | 275 | 292 |
| Points / Game | 21.2 | 22.5 |
| First Downs | ||
| Total | 269 | 236 |
| Rushing | 90 | 88 |
| Passing | 152 | 107 |
| Penalty | 27 | 41 |
| Rushing | ||
| Attempts | 441 | 472 |
| Yards | 1,544 | 1,410 |
| Yards / Carry | 3.5 | 3.0 |
| Yards / Game | 118.8 | 108.5 |
| Touchdowns | 11 | 12 |
| Passing | ||
| Attempts | 513 | 433 |
| Completions | 316 | 221 |
| Completion % | 61.6% | 51.0% |
| Yards | 3,402 | 2,658 |
| Yards / Attempt | 6.6 | 6.1 |
| Touchdowns | 17 | 19 |
| Interceptions | 10 | 9 |
| Passer Rating | 124.34 | 112.93 |
| Total Offense | ||
| Plays | 954 | 905 |
| Yards | 4,946 | 4,068 |
| Yards / Play | 5.2 | 4.5 |
| Yards / Game | 380.5 | 312.9 |
| Punt Returns | ||
| Returns | 34 | 27 |
| Yards | 199 | 279 |
| Average | 5.9 | 10.3 |
| Touchdowns | 1 | 1 |
| Kickoff Returns | ||
| Returns | 17 | 24 |
| Yards | 287 | 472 |
| Average | 16.9 | 19.7 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 0 |
| Punting | ||
| Punts | 69 | 85 |
| Yards | 2,860 | 3,670 |
| Average | 41.4 | 43.2 |
| Interception Returns | ||
| Returns | 9 | 10 |
| Yards | 132 | 105 |
| Touchdowns | 1 | 0 |
| Fumbles | ||
| Fumbles | 24 | 17 |
| Lost | 12 | 5 |
| Penalties | ||
| Penalties | 102 | 63 |
| Yards | 888 | 644 |
| Yards / Game | 68.3 | 49.5 |
| Time of Possession | ||
| Per Game | 30:40 | 29:20 |
| Third Downs | ||
| Attempts | 211 | 204 |
| Conversions | 84 | 68 |
| Conversion % | 39.8% | 33.3% |
| Fourth Downs | ||
| Attempts | 17 | 18 |
| Conversions | 8 | 10 |
| Conversion % | 47.1% | 55.6% |
| Red Zone | ||
| Trips | 38 | 46 |
| Scores (TD + FG) | 30 | 37 |
| Score % | 78.9% | 80.4% |
| Touchdowns | 18 | 21 |
| TD % | 47.4% | 45.7% |
| Field Goals | ||
| Attempts | 31 | 25 |
| Made | 22 | 21 |
| Pct | 71.0% | 84.0% |
| PAT Kicking | ||
| Attempts | 30 | 29 |
| Made | 29 | 29 |
| Pct | 96.7% | 100.0% |
| Two-Point Conversions | ||
| Attempts | 0 | 4 |
| Made | 0 | 1 |
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.