Fourth Down Data
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NCSU

NC State

WolfpackBalanced
Atlantic Coast Conference8-5#37 (+3.78)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

73· BOverall
Offense
25· DRating
17· DPer play
19· DConsistency
12· FBig plays
Defense
92· A-Rating
79· BPer play
94· AConsistency
Situational
5· FRed-zone O
35· DRed-zone D
23· D3rd down O
44· C3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
-0.072
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.114
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
-0.133
Defensive EPA/play
-0.106
lower = better
Off Success Rate
41.8%
Def Success Rate
40.0%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
20.7%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
22.8%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
-0.027
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.109
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
1.78

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
+1.60
expected pts/game
Kicking
+0.99
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-0.03
vs opponent kicks
Returns
+0.34
own return game
Return Defense
+0.31
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#37
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
#42
model 5 higher
Recruiting Rank
#32
recruiting 5 spots higher
14 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where NC State ranks among all FBS teams in 2022 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
31th
Opp-adjusted defense
87th
Offensive EPA/play
17th
Defensive EPA/play
80th
Offensive success rate
16th
Explosiveness
13th
Defensive havoc
86th
Points per drive
29th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1LSU2025OA -0.015 / +0.133similar: rushing offense, run defense, offensive success rate4302Pittsburgh2019OA -0.088 / +0.099similar: run defense, rushing offense, offensive EPA4083Toledo2024OA -0.022 / +0.030similar: offensive success rate, defensive EPA, run defense3814Michigan State2019OA -0.016 / +0.106similar: rushing offense, defensive EPA, offensive EPA3715Baylor2020OA -0.052 / +0.028similar: TD drive rate, defensive EPA, pass defense370

2022 Schedule & Results

13 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1@ East Carolina21-20W-11.5L51.5U
2vs Charleston Southern55-3W----
3vs Texas Tech27-14W-10.0W56U
4vs UConn41-10W-38.5L49.5O
5@ Clemson20-30L+6.5L42.75O
6vs Florida State19-17W-3.5L50.5U
7@ Syracuse9-24L+3.5L42U
9vs Virginia Tech22-21W----
10vs Wake Forest30-21W+4.5W54U
11vs Boston College20-21L-19.0L42U
12@ Louisville10-25L+6.5W56O
13@ North Carolina30-27W----
18vs Maryland12-16L----

Betting Profile

ATS Record
3-9
25.0%
O/U Record
4-8
33.3%
Straight Up
8-5
61.5%
Home ATS2-5
Away ATS1-4
Favorite ATS1-6
Underdog ATS2-3
Last 5 ATS
WLLWL
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off10thRush Off19thRed Zone Off5th3rd Down Off23thPass Def61thRush Def96thRed Zone Def36th3rd Down Def44th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall-0.14213th-0.12588th
Red Zone-0.3675th+0.05136th
Third Down-0.08123th+0.07044th
No Garbage Time-0.13815th-0.11083th
First Half-0.09031th-0.18793th
Second Half-0.1947th-0.06569th
Early Downs-0.08721th-0.15894th
Passing Downs-0.18110th-0.03961th
Standard Downs-0.11919th-0.18596th
Goal to Go-0.5694th-0.08556th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 51.6%Rush 48.4%
Havoc/Game
14.8
Havoc Rate
21.9%
TO Margin
+0.5
Explosive/G
13.1
Yards/Game
339.8
Pts/Drive
1.78
3rd Down%
36.2%
3&Out%
29.6%

Team Statistics

2022 season totals across 13 games — NC State vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatNC StateOpponents
Scoring
Points316249
Points / Game24.319.2
First Downs
Total265215
Rushing9665
Passing137125
Penalty3225
Rushing
Attempts442390
Yards1,4791,309
Yards / Carry3.33.4
Yards / Game113.8100.7
Touchdowns813
Passing
Attempts471461
Completions269264
Completion %57.1%57.3%
Yards2,9392,941
Yards / Attempt6.26.4
Touchdowns2315
Interceptions819
Passer Rating122.25113.35
Total Offense
Plays913851
Yards4,4184,250
Yards / Play4.85.0
Yards / Game339.8326.9
Punt Returns
Returns1922
Yards164181
Average8.68.2
Touchdowns10
Kickoff Returns
Returns1925
Yards438467
Average23.118.7
Touchdowns01
Punting
Punts6976
Yards2,9033,142
Average42.141.3
Interception Returns
Returns198
Yards17271
Touchdowns10
Fumbles
Fumbles1810
Lost83
Penalties
Penalties9499
Yards727855
Yards / Game55.965.8
Time of Possession
Per Game31:2328:31
Third Downs
Attempts196192
Conversions7163
Conversion %36.2%32.8%
Fourth Downs
Attempts2022
Conversions88
Conversion %40.0%36.4%
Red Zone
Trips4536
Scores (TD + FG)3931
Score %86.7%86.1%
Touchdowns2021
TD %44.4%58.3%
Field Goals
Attempts3121
Made2916
Pct93.5%76.2%
PAT Kicking
Attempts3128
Made3127
Pct100.0%96.4%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts21
Made00
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →