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LSU
LSU
TigersBalancedSoutheastern Conference7-6#24 (+11.99)
Grades
Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.
82· BOverall
Offense
62· CRating
21· DPer play
15· DConsistency
12· FBig plays
Defense
92· A-Rating
87· BPer play
76· BConsistency
Situational
10· FRed-zone O
56· CRed-zone D
33· D3rd down O
75· B3rd down D
Analytical Fingerprint
SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.
Opp-Adj Offense
-0.015
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.133
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
-0.090
Defensive EPA/play
-0.114
lower = better
Off Success Rate
42.5%
Def Success Rate
43.2%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
20.5%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
23.2%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.024
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.172
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
1.79
Special Teams
Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.
Net ST Rating
+0.53
expected pts/game
Kicking
+0.04
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+0.59
vs opponent kicks
Returns
+0.09
own return game
Return Defense
-0.18
vs opponent returns
Performance vs Perception
Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.
Model Rank
#24
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
model 2 spots higher
Market (Vegas)
#36
model 12 higher
Recruiting Rank
#9
recruiting 15 spots higher
64 blue-chip recruits
Peer Context
Where LSU ranks among all FBS teams in 2025 (percentile).
Opp-adjusted offense47th
Opp-adjusted defense92th
Offensive EPA/play21th
Defensive EPA/play88th
Offensive success rate16th
Explosiveness13th
Defensive havoc65th
Points per drive21th
Historical Fingerprint
Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.
1NC State2022OA -0.072 / +0.114similar: rushing offense, run defense, offensive success rate4302Toledo2024OA -0.022 / +0.030similar: offensive success rate, pass defense, havoc rate3773Baylor2020OA -0.052 / +0.028similar: rushing offense, TD drive rate, defensive success rate3554Mississippi State2020OA -0.062 / +0.041similar: TD drive rate, rushing offense, run defense3455California2024OA -0.026 / +0.026similar: run defense, offensive success rate, defensive success rate343
2025 Schedule & Results
13 games
| Wk | Opponent | Score | W/L | Spread | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | @ Clemson | 17-10 | W | +4.5 | W | 56.5 | U |
| 2 | vs Louisiana Tech | 23-7 | W | -36.5 | L | 49.5 | U |
| 3 | vs Florida | 20-10 | W | -6.0 | W | 47.5 | U |
| 4 | vs Southeastern Louisiana | 56-10 | W | -49.0 | L | 60.5 | O |
| 5 | @ Ole Miss | 19-24 | L | +7.5 | W | 51.5 | U |
| 7 | vs South Carolina | 20-10 | W | -8.5 | W | 44 | U |
| 8 | @ Vanderbilt | 24-31 | L | +1.5 | L | 48 | O |
| 9 | vs Texas A&M | 25-49 | L | +2.5 | L | 49.5 | O |
| 11 | @ Alabama | 9-20 | L | +10.5 | L | 49.5 | U |
| 12 | vs Arkansas | 23-22 | W | -5.5 | L | 57.5 | U |
| 13 | vs Western Kentucky | 13-10 | W | -23.5 | L | 52 | U |
| 14 | @ Oklahoma | 13-17 | L | +7.5 | W | 29.5 | O |
| 18 | @ Houston | 35-38 | L | +1.5 | L | 42 | O |
Betting Profile
ATS Record
5-8
38.5%
O/U Record
5-8
38.5%
Straight Up
7-6
53.8%
Home ATS2-5
Away ATS3-3
Favorite ATS2-4
Underdog ATS3-4
Last 5 ATS
LLLWL
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.
Situational Profile
Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.
| Situation | OFF EPA | OFF Rank | DEF EPA | DEF Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | -0.077 | 26th | -0.100 | 85th |
| Red Zone | -0.220 | 10th | -0.034 | 56th |
| Third Down | -0.009 | 33th | -0.074 | 76th |
| No Garbage Time | -0.090 | 21th | -0.114 | 87th |
| First Half | -0.120 | 16th | -0.103 | 81th |
| Second Half | -0.033 | 38th | -0.097 | 81th |
| Early Downs | -0.080 | 18th | -0.082 | 77th |
| Passing Downs | -0.022 | 49th | -0.045 | 56th |
| Standard Downs | -0.111 | 8th | -0.131 | 92th |
| Goal to Go | -0.443 | 4th | -0.399 | 90th |
Style & Tendencies
Pass 54.0%Rush 46.0%
Havoc/Game
12.9
Havoc Rate
19.2%
TO Margin
+0.5
Explosive/G
12.2
Yards/Game
333.5
Pts/Drive
1.79
3rd Down%
37.0%
3&Out%
26.8%
Team Statistics
2025 season totals across 13 games — LSU vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
| Stat | LSU | Opponents |
|---|---|---|
| Scoring | ||
| Points | 297 | 258 |
| Points / Game | 22.8 | 19.8 |
| First Downs | ||
| Total | 244 | 243 |
| Rushing | 72 | 93 |
| Passing | 142 | 119 |
| Penalty | 30 | 31 |
| Rushing | ||
| Attempts | 378 | 433 |
| Yards | 1,352 | 1,613 |
| Yards / Carry | 3.6 | 3.7 |
| Yards / Game | 104.0 | 124.1 |
| Touchdowns | 10 | 15 |
| Passing | ||
| Attempts | 443 | 414 |
| Completions | 291 | 247 |
| Completion % | 65.7% | 59.7% |
| Yards | 2,984 | 2,660 |
| Yards / Attempt | 6.7 | 6.4 |
| Touchdowns | 20 | 14 |
| Interceptions | 7 | 17 |
| Passer Rating | 134.01 | 116.58 |
| Total Offense | ||
| Plays | 821 | 847 |
| Yards | 4,336 | 4,273 |
| Yards / Play | 5.3 | 5.0 |
| Yards / Game | 333.5 | 328.7 |
| Punt Returns | ||
| Returns | 18 | 25 |
| Yards | 153 | 368 |
| Average | 8.5 | 14.7 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 2 |
| Kickoff Returns | ||
| Returns | 23 | 13 |
| Yards | 562 | 288 |
| Average | 24.4 | 22.2 |
| Touchdowns | 1 | 0 |
| Punting | ||
| Punts | 63 | 59 |
| Yards | 2,834 | 2,509 |
| Average | 45.0 | 42.5 |
| Interception Returns | ||
| Returns | 17 | 7 |
| Yards | 235 | 16 |
| Touchdowns | 1 | 0 |
| Fumbles | ||
| Fumbles | 15 | 9 |
| Lost | 7 | 4 |
| Penalties | ||
| Penalties | 91 | 91 |
| Yards | 771 | 773 |
| Yards / Game | 59.3 | 59.5 |
| Time of Possession | ||
| Per Game | 30:16 | 29:44 |
| Third Downs | ||
| Attempts | 173 | 177 |
| Conversions | 64 | 61 |
| Conversion % | 37.0% | 34.5% |
| Fourth Downs | ||
| Attempts | 13 | 27 |
| Conversions | 8 | 14 |
| Conversion % | 61.5% | 51.9% |
| Red Zone | ||
| Trips | 44 | 35 |
| Scores (TD + FG) | 36 | 26 |
| Score % | 81.8% | 74.3% |
| Touchdowns | 23 | 22 |
| TD % | 52.3% | 62.9% |
| Field Goals | ||
| Attempts | 29 | 15 |
| Made | 24 | 11 |
| Pct | 82.8% | 73.3% |
| PAT Kicking | ||
| Attempts | 30 | 31 |
| Made | 29 | 31 |
| Pct | 96.7% | 100.0% |
| Two-Point Conversions | ||
| Attempts | 2 | 1 |
| Made | 1 | 1 |
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.