Fourth Down Data
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MRSH

Marshall

Thundering HerdBalanced
Sun Belt Conference6-7#114 (-5.75)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

16· DOverall
Offense
10· FRating
10· FPer play
30· DConsistency
13· FBig plays
Defense
51· CRating
76· BPer play
78· BConsistency
Situational
8· FRed-zone O
95· ARed-zone D
6· F3rd down O
87· B3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
-0.105
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.027
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
-0.117
Defensive EPA/play
-0.052
lower = better
Off Success Rate
44.0%
Def Success Rate
43.3%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
20.9%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
21.6%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
-0.066
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.059
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
1.51

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
-1.15
expected pts/game
Kicking
-1.12
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-0.11
vs opponent kicks
Returns
+0.18
own return game
Return Defense
-0.10
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#114
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
#62
market 52 higher
Recruiting Rank
#76
recruiting 38 spots higher
0 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where Marshall ranks among all FBS teams in 2023 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
13th
Opp-adjusted defense
64th
Offensive EPA/play
10th
Defensive EPA/play
77th
Offensive success rate
26th
Explosiveness
13th
Defensive havoc
79th
Points per drive
10th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Virginia2022OA -0.103 / +0.066similar: offensive EPA, defensive EPA, TD drive rate4482Eastern Michigan2017OA -0.078 / +0.060similar: defensive EPA, pass defense, takeaway rate4463Mississippi State2020OA -0.062 / +0.041similar: offensive success rate, offensive EPA, defensive EPA4404TCU2018OA -0.079 / +0.129similar: pass defense, turnover rate, offensive success rate4165Buffalo2025OA -0.180 / -0.001similar: offensive EPA, defensive EPA, defensive success rate409

2023 Schedule & Results

13 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1vs Albany21-17W-24.3L46.5U
2@ East Carolina31-13W-3.0W43.5O
4vs Virginia Tech24-17W-4.5W41.5U
5vs Old Dominion41-35W-14.0L47O
6@ NC State41-48L+6.5L44.5O
7@ Georgia State24-41L+1.0L55O
8vs James Madison9-20L----
9@ Coastal Carolina6-34L-4.0L45U
10@ App State9-31L+3.5L55U
11vs Georgia Southern38-33W+2.5W56.5O
12@ South Alabama0-28L+10.5L50.5U
13vs Arkansas State35-21W-2.5W53.5O
17vs UTSA17-35L----

Betting Profile

ATS Record
4-9
30.8%
O/U Record
6-7
46.2%
Straight Up
6-7
46.2%
Home ATS3-4
Away ATS1-5
Favorite ATS3-3
Underdog ATS1-6
Last 5 ATS
LWLWL
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off19thRush Off8thRed Zone Off8th3rd Down Off6thPass Def89thRush Def62thRed Zone Def96th3rd Down Def88th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall-0.1168th-0.05779th
Red Zone-0.2228th-0.25296th
Third Down-0.0986th-0.01588th
No Garbage Time-0.09114th-0.05579th
First Half-0.12710th-0.02364th
Second Half-0.10315th-0.09284th
Early Downs-0.10919th-0.01139th
Passing Downs-0.07819th-0.07289th
Standard Downs-0.1378th-0.04862th
Goal to Go+0.23587th+0.01649th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 48.5%Rush 51.5%
Havoc/Game
14.9
Havoc Rate
21.0%
TO Margin
-0.8
Explosive/G
13.5
Yards/Game
358.5
Pts/Drive
1.51
3rd Down%
31.3%
3&Out%
22.7%

Team Statistics

2023 season totals across 13 games — Marshall vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatMarshallOpponents
Scoring
Points296373
Points / Game22.828.7
First Downs
Total238241
Rushing8194
Passing127124
Penalty3023
Rushing
Attempts452467
Yards1,7202,022
Yards / Carry3.84.3
Yards / Game132.3155.5
Touchdowns2120
Passing
Attempts426423
Completions268249
Completion %62.9%58.9%
Yards2,9402,873
Yards / Attempt6.96.8
Touchdowns1223
Interceptions1813
Passer Rating121.73127.71
Total Offense
Plays878890
Yards4,6604,895
Yards / Play5.35.5
Yards / Game358.5376.5
Punt Returns
Returns930
Yards19351
Average2.111.7
Touchdowns02
Kickoff Returns
Returns3019
Yards789335
Average26.317.6
Touchdowns20
Punting
Punts6967
Yards2,8952,797
Average42.041.7
Interception Returns
Returns1318
Yards131143
Touchdowns20
Fumbles
Fumbles2312
Lost115
Penalties
Penalties8485
Yards757811
Yards / Game58.262.4
Time of Possession
Per Game29:2630:34
Third Downs
Attempts179188
Conversions5661
Conversion %31.3%32.4%
Fourth Downs
Attempts2528
Conversions612
Conversion %24.0%42.9%
Red Zone
Trips4250
Scores (TD + FG)3137
Score %73.8%74.0%
Touchdowns2223
TD %52.4%46.0%
Field Goals
Attempts2024
Made1219
Pct60.0%79.2%
PAT Kicking
Attempts3644
Made3644
Pct100.0%100.0%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts11
Made01
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →