Fourth Down Data
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UVA

Virginia

CavaliersBalanced
Atlantic Coast Conference3-7#113 (-5.87)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

17· DOverall
Offense
7· FRating
11· FPer play
21· DConsistency
21· DBig plays
Defense
70· BRating
75· BPer play
67· CConsistency
Situational
14· FRed-zone O
81· BRed-zone D
17· D3rd down O
84· B3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
-0.103
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.066
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
-0.166
Defensive EPA/play
-0.091
lower = better
Off Success Rate
42.2%
Def Success Rate
44.0%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
21.3%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
20.9%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
-0.076
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.060
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
1.32

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
-2.91
expected pts/game
Kicking
-1.22
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-0.61
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.29
own return game
Return Defense
-0.78
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#113
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
#79
market 34 higher
Recruiting Rank
#50
recruiting 63 spots higher
6 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where Virginia ranks among all FBS teams in 2022 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
19th
Opp-adjusted defense
76th
Offensive EPA/play
11th
Defensive EPA/play
76th
Offensive success rate
19th
Explosiveness
21th
Defensive havoc
36th
Points per drive
9th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Eastern Michigan2017OA -0.078 / +0.060similar: defensive EPA, run defense, defensive success rate4762Charlotte2023OA -0.104 / +0.014similar: defensive success rate, pass defense, offensive EPA4563Marshall2023OA -0.105 / +0.027similar: offensive EPA, defensive EPA, TD drive rate4484Mississippi State2020OA -0.062 / +0.041similar: defensive EPA, passing offense, defensive success rate4475Michigan State2020OA -0.049 / +0.004similar: turnover rate, pass defense, passing offense445

2022 Schedule & Results

10 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1vs Richmond34-17W-21.5L61U
2@ Illinois3-24L+4.0L57.5U
3vs Old Dominion16-14W+9.5W54U
4@ Syracuse20-22L----
5@ Duke17-38L+3.0L52O
6vs Louisville17-34L+1.0L48.5O
8@ Georgia Tech16-9W----
9vs Miami12-14L+2.0P48.25U
10vs North Carolina28-31L+7.5W59P
11vs Pittsburgh7-37L+4.3L40O

Betting Profile

ATS Record
3-6-1
33.3%
O/U Record
3-6-1
33.3%
Straight Up
3-7
30.0%
Home ATS1-4
Away ATS2-2
Favorite ATS0-2
Underdog ATS3-4
Last 5 ATS
LWPWL
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off51thRush Off4thRed Zone Off14th3rd Down Off17thPass Def57thRush Def87thRed Zone Def82th3rd Down Def85th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall-0.15512th-0.09181th
Red Zone-0.23214th-0.20682th
Third Down-0.12817th-0.11885th
No Garbage Time-0.16311th-0.08573th
First Half-0.1838th-0.08876th
Second Half-0.12616th-0.09581th
Early Downs-0.17410th-0.08778th
Passing Downs-0.00551th-0.03357th
Standard Downs-0.2394th-0.12287th
Goal to Go-0.4716th-0.40290th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 51.0%Rush 49.0%
Havoc/Game
13.0
Havoc Rate
17.3%
TO Margin
-0.9
Explosive/G
13.5
Yards/Game
344.1
Pts/Drive
1.32
3rd Down%
32.1%
3&Out%
22.5%

Team Statistics

2022 season totals across 10 games — Virginia vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatVirginiaOpponents
Scoring
Points170240
Points / Game17.024.0
First Downs
Total191209
Rushing7485
Passing92104
Penalty2520
Rushing
Attempts329407
Yards1,2311,532
Yards / Carry3.73.8
Yards / Game123.1153.2
Touchdowns1312
Passing
Attempts342312
Completions185191
Completion %54.1%61.2%
Yards2,2102,044
Yards / Attempt6.56.6
Touchdowns710
Interceptions125
Passer Rating108.11123.62
Total Offense
Plays671719
Yards3,4413,576
Yards / Play5.15.0
Yards / Game344.1357.6
Punt Returns
Returns1325
Yards63314
Average4.812.6
Touchdowns00
Kickoff Returns
Returns2013
Yards440324
Average22.024.9
Touchdowns00
Punting
Punts5453
Yards2,3062,225
Average42.742.0
Interception Returns
Returns512
Yards4067
Touchdowns03
Fumbles
Fumbles1212
Lost108
Penalties
Penalties7068
Yards622590
Yards / Game62.259.0
Time of Possession
Per Game27:3432:26
Third Downs
Attempts137153
Conversions4456
Conversion %32.1%36.6%
Fourth Downs
Attempts1814
Conversions78
Conversion %38.9%57.1%
Red Zone
Trips3234
Scores (TD + FG)2430
Score %75.0%88.2%
Touchdowns1615
TD %50.0%44.1%
Field Goals
Attempts1823
Made1119
Pct61.1%82.6%
PAT Kicking
Attempts2026
Made1725
Pct85.0%96.2%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts22
Made01
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →