Fourth Down Data
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MSU

Michigan State

SpartansBalanced
Big Ten Conference2-5#118 (-7.87)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

9· FOverall
Offense
6· FRating
5· FPer play
9· FConsistency
10· FBig plays
Defense
43· CRating
59· CPer play
73· BConsistency
Situational
57· CRed-zone O
65· CRed-zone D
5· F3rd down O
34· D3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
-0.049
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.004
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
-0.206
Defensive EPA/play
-0.001
lower = better
Off Success Rate
41.0%
Def Success Rate
44.2%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
20.3%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
22.7%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
-0.205
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
+0.051
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
1.23

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
-2.95
expected pts/game
Kicking
-0.44
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-0.45
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.72
own return game
Return Defense
-1.34
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#118
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
#100
market 18 higher
Recruiting Rank
—
no recruiting profile

Peer Context

Where Michigan State ranks among all FBS teams in 2020 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
7th
Opp-adjusted defense
57th
Offensive EPA/play
5th
Defensive EPA/play
60th
Offensive success rate
9th
Explosiveness
10th
Defensive havoc
34th
Points per drive
5th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Akron2018OA -0.161 / +0.022similar: TD drive rate, takeaway rate, rushing offense5082Virginia2022OA -0.103 / +0.066similar: turnover rate, pass defense, passing offense4453Florida State2018OA -0.108 / +0.043similar: rushing offense, defensive success rate, offensive EPA4274Charlotte2023OA -0.104 / +0.014similar: takeaway rate, offensive success rate, TD drive rate4235Akron2023OA -0.232 / -0.010similar: TD drive rate, rushing offense, defensive success rate413

2020 Schedule & Results

7 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
8vs Rutgers27-38L-13.5L44.5O
9@ Michigan27-24W+24.5W52U
10@ Iowa7-49L+7.0L46.5O
11vs Indiana0-24L+7.5L51.5U
13vs Northwestern29-20W+13.0W41.5O
14vs Ohio State12-52L+23.5L59.5O
15@ Penn State24-39L+15.0P47O

Betting Profile

ATS Record
2-4-1
33.3%
O/U Record
5-2
71.4%
Straight Up
2-5
28.6%
Home ATS1-3
Away ATS1-1
Favorite ATS0-1
Underdog ATS2-3
Last 5 ATS
LLWLP
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off9thRush Off3thRed Zone Off58th3rd Down Off5thPass Def59thRush Def70thRed Zone Def66th3rd Down Def34th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall-0.1895th-0.02266th
Red Zone+0.03058th-0.07266th
Third Down-0.3655th+0.14234th
No Garbage Time-0.2125th-0.00659th
First Half-0.2682th-0.00757th
Second Half-0.11413th-0.03867th
Early Downs-0.09217th-0.01563th
Passing Downs-0.2109th+0.02159th
Standard Downs-0.1753th-0.04670th
Goal to Go+0.01950th+0.03852th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 50.3%Rush 49.7%
Havoc/Game
13.1
Havoc Rate
16.9%
TO Margin
-1.3
Explosive/G
11.6
Yards/Game
330.3
Pts/Drive
1.23
3rd Down%
32.7%
3&Out%
22.0%

Team Statistics

2020 season totals across 7 games — Michigan State vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatMichigan StateOpponents
Scoring
Points126246
Points / Game18.035.1
First Downs
Total113149
Rushing2953
Passing7283
Penalty1213
Rushing
Attempts239280
Yards6401,101
Yards / Carry2.73.9
Yards / Game91.4157.3
Touchdowns220
Passing
Attempts242247
Completions132151
Completion %54.5%61.1%
Yards1,6721,676
Yards / Attempt6.96.8
Touchdowns118
Interceptions125
Passer Rating117.66124.77
Total Offense
Plays481527
Yards2,3122,777
Yards / Play4.85.3
Yards / Game330.3396.7
Punt Returns
Returns415
Yards32257
Average8.017.1
Touchdowns02
Kickoff Returns
Returns1917
Yards367412
Average19.324.2
Touchdowns00
Punting
Punts4638
Yards1,9591,654
Average42.643.5
Interception Returns
Returns512
Yards107171
Touchdowns02
Fumbles
Fumbles128
Lost86
Penalties
Penalties4944
Yards446353
Yards / Game63.750.4
Time of Possession
Per Game27:1032:50
Third Downs
Attempts113107
Conversions3741
Conversion %32.7%38.3%
Fourth Downs
Attempts1211
Conversions56
Conversion %41.7%54.5%
Red Zone
Trips1232
Scores (TD + FG)1125
Score %91.7%78.1%
Touchdowns720
TD %58.3%62.5%
Field Goals
Attempts129
Made97
Pct75.0%77.8%
PAT Kicking
Attempts1331
Made1331
Pct100.0%100.0%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts01
Made01
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →