Fourth Down Data
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AKR

Akron

ZipsBalanced
Mid-American Conference2-10#131 (-9.74)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

4· FOverall
Offense
1· FRating
1· FPer play
2· FConsistency
1· FBig plays
Defense
26· DRating
73· BPer play
81· BConsistency
Situational
50· CRed-zone O
13· FRed-zone D
5· F3rd down O
59· C3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
-0.232
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.010
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
-0.221
Defensive EPA/play
-0.049
lower = better
Off Success Rate
39.3%
Def Success Rate
43.0%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
17.5%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
23.2%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
-0.172
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.003
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
1.27

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
-0.95
expected pts/game
Kicking
-0.90
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-0.08
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.17
own return game
Return Defense
+0.19
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#131
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
#108
market 23 higher
Recruiting Rank
#76
recruiting 55 spots higher
0 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where Akron ranks among all FBS teams in 2023 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
0th
Opp-adjusted defense
45th
Offensive EPA/play
1th
Defensive EPA/play
74th
Offensive success rate
3th
Explosiveness
1th
Defensive havoc
24th
Points per drive
3th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Florida State2018OA -0.108 / +0.043similar: offensive success rate, rushing offense, defensive success rate4262Michigan State2020OA -0.049 / +0.004similar: TD drive rate, rushing offense, offensive EPA4133Michigan State2023OA -0.078 / -0.038similar: TD drive rate, rushing offense, passing offense4064New Mexico2021OA -0.227 / +0.012similar: offensive success rate, offensive EPA, rushing offense3905Virginia Tech2022OA -0.094 / +0.007similar: takeaway rate, defensive success rate, defensive EPA368

2023 Schedule & Results

12 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1@ Temple21-24L+10.0W56.5U
2vs Morgan State24-21W-23.0L47U
3@ Kentucky3-35L+26.0L49.5U
4@ Indiana27-29L+17.0W46.5O
5vs Buffalo10-13L-2.5L55.5U
6vs Northern Illinois14-55L+6.5L43O
7@ Central Michigan10-17L+12.0W44.5U
8@ Bowling Green14-41L+7.5L39.5O
10vs Kent State31-27W+17.5L41U
11@ Miami (OH)0-19L+3.5W39O
12@ Eastern Michigan27-30L+14.0W41U
13vs Ohio14-25L----

Betting Profile

ATS Record
5-6-1
45.5%
O/U Record
5-7
41.7%
Straight Up
2-10
16.7%
Home ATS1-3
Away ATS4-3
Favorite ATS0-2
Underdog ATS5-4
Last 5 ATS
LPLWW
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off0thRush Off10thRed Zone Off51th3rd Down Off5thPass Def44thRush Def75thRed Zone Def13th3rd Down Def60th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall-0.2031th-0.03166th
Red Zone+0.00451th+0.17713th
Third Down-0.1075th+0.13760th
No Garbage Time-0.2231th-0.04974th
First Half-0.11913th-0.07382th
Second Half-0.2772th+0.01347th
Early Downs-0.13710th-0.11584th
Passing Downs-0.3300th+0.04544th
Standard Downs-0.12610th-0.07775th
Goal to Go-0.00145th+0.14432th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 55.1%Rush 44.9%
Havoc/Game
11.4
Havoc Rate
16.7%
TO Margin
-0.8
Explosive/G
9.7
Yards/Game
278.6
Pts/Drive
1.27
3rd Down%
33.5%
3&Out%
29.5%

Team Statistics

2023 season totals across 12 games — Akron vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatAkronOpponents
Scoring
Points195336
Points / Game16.328.0
First Downs
Total200215
Rushing8594
Passing9795
Penalty1826
Rushing
Attempts346443
Yards9721,773
Yards / Carry2.84.0
Yards / Game81.0147.8
Touchdowns1223
Passing
Attempts425333
Completions258186
Completion %60.7%55.9%
Yards2,3712,247
Yards / Attempt5.66.7
Touchdowns1019
Interceptions156
Passer Rating108.27127.76
Total Offense
Plays771776
Yards3,3434,020
Yards / Play4.35.2
Yards / Game278.6335.0
Punt Returns
Returns1614
Yards9325
Average5.81.8
Touchdowns00
Kickoff Returns
Returns3630
Yards632517
Average17.617.2
Touchdowns00
Punting
Punts6457
Yards2,4002,496
Average37.543.8
Interception Returns
Returns615
Yards191223
Touchdowns11
Fumbles
Fumbles1013
Lost66
Penalties
Penalties8357
Yards721540
Yards / Game60.145.0
Time of Possession
Per Game29:3330:25
Third Downs
Attempts170166
Conversions5761
Conversion %33.5%36.7%
Fourth Downs
Attempts2323
Conversions812
Conversion %34.8%52.2%
Red Zone
Trips2939
Scores (TD + FG)2336
Score %79.3%92.3%
Touchdowns1529
TD %51.7%74.4%
Field Goals
Attempts1619
Made912
Pct56.3%63.2%
PAT Kicking
Attempts2438
Made2436
Pct100.0%94.7%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts26
Made03
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →