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AKR
Akron
ZipsBalancedMid-American Conference4-8#104 (-5.97)
Grades
Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.
22· DOverall
Offense
3· FRating
3· FPer play
2· FConsistency
8· FBig plays
Defense
50· CRating
70· BPer play
62· CConsistency
Situational
39· DRed-zone O
70· BRed-zone D
7· F3rd down O
80· B3rd down D
Analytical Fingerprint
SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.
Opp-Adj Offense
-0.161
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.022
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
-0.206
Defensive EPA/play
-0.066
lower = better
Off Success Rate
37.1%
Def Success Rate
44.1%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
20.5%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
23.2%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
-0.140
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
+0.095
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
1.25
Special Teams
Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.
Net ST Rating
-0.12
expected pts/game
Kicking
-0.04
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+0.05
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.07
own return game
Return Defense
-0.06
vs opponent returns
Performance vs Perception
Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.
Model Rank
#104
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
—
unavailable
Recruiting Rank
#77
recruiting 27 spots higher
0 blue-chip recruits
Peer Context
Where Akron ranks among all FBS teams in 2018 (percentile).
Opp-adjusted offense4th
Opp-adjusted defense58th
Offensive EPA/play3th
Defensive EPA/play70th
Offensive success rate1th
Explosiveness8th
Defensive havoc37th
Points per drive4th
Historical Fingerprint
Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.
1Michigan State2020OA -0.049 / +0.004similar: TD drive rate, takeaway rate, rushing offense5072Central Michigan2018OA -0.237 / +0.049similar: rushing offense, offensive success rate, offensive EPA4103Michigan State2023OA -0.078 / -0.038similar: turnover rate, passing offense, TD drive rate3884Virginia2022OA -0.103 / +0.066similar: havoc rate, defensive success rate, passing offense3875Eastern Michigan2023OA -0.162 / -0.059similar: offensive EPA, passing offense, TD drive rate371
2018 Schedule & Results
12 games
| Wk | Opponent | Score | W/L | Spread | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | vs Morgan State | 41-7 | W | -42.5 | L | - | - |
| 3 | @ Northwestern | 39-34 | W | +21.5 | W | 45.5 | O |
| 4 | @ Iowa State | 13-26 | L | +19.5 | W | 47 | U |
| 6 | vs Miami (OH) | 17-41 | L | -5.0 | L | 47.5 | O |
| 7 | @ Buffalo | 6-24 | L | +12.0 | L | 55 | U |
| 8 | @ Kent State | 24-23 | W | -4.5 | L | 50 | U |
| 9 | vs Central Michigan | 17-10 | W | -4.0 | W | 43.5 | U |
| 10 | vs Northern Illinois | 26-36 | L | +6.0 | L | 37 | O |
| 11 | @ Eastern Michigan | 7-27 | L | +11.0 | L | 41.5 | U |
| 12 | vs Bowling Green | 6-21 | L | -6.5 | L | 48.5 | U |
| 13 | @ Ohio | 28-49 | L | +24.0 | W | 56.5 | O |
| 14 | @ South Carolina | 3-28 | L | +28.5 | W | 55 | U |
Betting Profile
ATS Record
5-7
41.7%
O/U Record
4-7
36.4%
Straight Up
4-8
33.3%
Home ATS1-4
Away ATS4-3
Favorite ATS1-4
Underdog ATS4-3
Last 5 ATS
LLLWW
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.
Situational Profile
Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.
| Situation | OFF EPA | OFF Rank | DEF EPA | DEF Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | -0.226 | 2th | -0.092 | 83th |
| Red Zone | -0.023 | 39th | -0.108 | 70th |
| Third Down | -0.208 | 7th | -0.112 | 81th |
| No Garbage Time | -0.235 | 2th | -0.079 | 75th |
| First Half | -0.193 | 8th | -0.073 | 70th |
| Second Half | -0.263 | 0th | -0.110 | 87th |
| Early Downs | -0.194 | 3th | -0.022 | 49th |
| Passing Downs | -0.105 | 18th | -0.096 | 72th |
| Standard Downs | -0.310 | 1th | -0.090 | 81th |
| Goal to Go | -0.201 | 14th | +0.339 | 12th |
Style & Tendencies
Pass 49.0%Rush 51.0%
Havoc/Game
13.7
Havoc Rate
17.6%
TO Margin
-0.4
Explosive/G
11.7
Yards/Game
294.4
Pts/Drive
1.25
3rd Down%
29.0%
3&Out%
22.8%
Team Statistics
2018 season totals across 12 games — Akron vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
| Stat | Akron | Opponents |
|---|---|---|
| Scoring | ||
| Points | 227 | 326 |
| Points / Game | 18.9 | 27.2 |
| First Downs | ||
| Total | 201 | 256 |
| Rushing | 69 | 127 |
| Passing | 105 | 111 |
| Penalty | 27 | 18 |
| Rushing | ||
| Attempts | 390 | 531 |
| Yards | 1,143 | 2,364 |
| Yards / Carry | 2.9 | 4.5 |
| Yards / Game | 95.3 | 197.0 |
| Touchdowns | 5 | 24 |
| Passing | ||
| Attempts | 374 | 367 |
| Completions | 187 | 222 |
| Completion % | 50.0% | 60.5% |
| Yards | 2,390 | 2,293 |
| Yards / Attempt | 6.4 | 6.2 |
| Touchdowns | 16 | 13 |
| Interceptions | 14 | 10 |
| Passer Rating | 110.31 | 119.21 |
| Total Offense | ||
| Plays | 764 | 898 |
| Yards | 3,533 | 4,657 |
| Yards / Play | 4.6 | 5.2 |
| Yards / Game | 294.4 | 388.1 |
| Punt Returns | ||
| Returns | 17 | 23 |
| Yards | 150 | 140 |
| Average | 8.8 | 6.1 |
| Touchdowns | 1 | 1 |
| Kickoff Returns | ||
| Returns | 23 | 18 |
| Yards | 330 | 420 |
| Average | 14.3 | 23.3 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 0 |
| Punting | ||
| Punts | 76 | 69 |
| Yards | 2,995 | 2,763 |
| Average | 39.4 | 40.0 |
| Interception Returns | ||
| Returns | 10 | 14 |
| Yards | 209 | 73 |
| Touchdowns | 2 | 2 |
| Fumbles | ||
| Fumbles | 24 | 14 |
| Lost | 12 | 11 |
| Penalties | ||
| Penalties | 80 | 76 |
| Yards | 733 | 759 |
| Yards / Game | 61.1 | 63.3 |
| Time of Possession | ||
| Per Game | 28:10 | 31:50 |
| Third Downs | ||
| Attempts | 169 | 189 |
| Conversions | 49 | 70 |
| Conversion % | 29.0% | 37.0% |
| Fourth Downs | ||
| Attempts | 17 | 24 |
| Conversions | 5 | 12 |
| Conversion % | 29.4% | 50.0% |
| Red Zone | ||
| Trips | 21 | 53 |
| Scores (TD + FG) | 20 | 43 |
| Score % | 95.2% | 81.1% |
| Touchdowns | 12 | 30 |
| TD % | 57.1% | 56.6% |
| Field Goals | ||
| Attempts | 22 | 19 |
| Made | 16 | 13 |
| Pct | 72.7% | 68.4% |
| PAT Kicking | ||
| Attempts | 24 | 39 |
| Made | 23 | 39 |
| Pct | 95.8% | 100.0% |
| Two-Point Conversions | ||
| Attempts | 2 | 2 |
| Made | 0 | 0 |
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.