Fourth Down Data
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CMU

Central Michigan

ChippewasBalanced
Mid-American Conference1-11#122 (-10.00)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

8· FOverall
Offense
0· FRating
1· FPer play
1· FConsistency
1· FBig plays
Defense
55· CRating
87· BPer play
67· CConsistency
Situational
30· DRed-zone O
61· CRed-zone D
0· F3rd down O
64· C3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
-0.237
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.049
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
-0.312
Defensive EPA/play
-0.124
lower = better
Off Success Rate
38.4%
Def Success Rate
43.6%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
17.7%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
21.2%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
-0.188
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.161
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
0.94

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
-1.60
expected pts/game
Kicking
-1.38
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-0.15
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.05
own return game
Return Defense
-0.01
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#122
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
—
unavailable
Recruiting Rank
#77
recruiting 45 spots higher
0 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where Central Michigan ranks among all FBS teams in 2018 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
0th
Opp-adjusted defense
68th
Offensive EPA/play
1th
Defensive EPA/play
88th
Offensive success rate
2th
Explosiveness
1th
Defensive havoc
52th
Points per drive
1th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Western Michigan2022OA -0.132 / +0.026similar: defensive success rate, offensive success rate, offensive EPA4462Southern Miss2021OA -0.274 / +0.086similar: offensive EPA, rushing offense, offensive success rate4223Charlotte2023OA -0.104 / +0.014similar: defensive success rate, turnover rate, run defense4174Akron2018OA -0.161 / +0.022similar: rushing offense, offensive success rate, offensive EPA4105Rutgers2022OA -0.152 / +0.067similar: passing offense, havoc rate, offensive EPA396

2018 Schedule & Results

12 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1@ Kentucky20-35L+17.5W49O
2vs Kansas7-31L-3.0L48.5U
3@ Northern Illinois16-24L+13.5W48U
4vs Maine17-5W----
5@ Michigan State20-31L+27.5W46O
6vs Buffalo24-34L+6.5L52O
7vs Ball State23-24L-2.5L54.5U
8vs Western Michigan10-35L+7.0L54U
9@ Akron10-17L+4.0L43.5U
10@ Eastern Michigan7-17L+14.0W46U
11vs Bowling Green13-24L-7.5L49.5U
13@ Toledo13-51L+19.0L58O

Betting Profile

ATS Record
4-7
36.4%
O/U Record
4-7
36.4%
Straight Up
1-11
8.3%
Home ATS0-5
Away ATS4-2
Favorite ATS0-3
Underdog ATS4-4
Last 5 ATS
LLWLL
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off0thRush Off2thRed Zone Off30th3rd Down Off0thPass Def91thRush Def78thRed Zone Def61th3rd Down Def65th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall-0.2850th-0.12491th
Red Zone-0.06730th-0.05561th
Third Down-0.5450th-0.02865th
No Garbage Time-0.3150th-0.11888th
First Half-0.3720th-0.21096th
Second Half-0.2031th-0.03563th
Early Downs-0.1914th-0.10788th
Passing Downs-0.3760th-0.20891th
Standard Downs-0.2232th-0.07778th
Goal to Go+0.13163th-0.12274th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 44.7%Rush 55.3%
Havoc/Game
13.8
Havoc Rate
18.5%
TO Margin
-0.4
Explosive/G
10.9
Yards/Game
254.7
Pts/Drive
0.94
3rd Down%
29.1%
3&Out%
36.1%

Team Statistics

2018 season totals across 12 games — Central Michigan vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatCentral MichiganOpponents
Scoring
Points180328
Points / Game15.027.3
First Downs
Total181245
Rushing85123
Passing7693
Penalty2029
Rushing
Attempts447554
Yards1,4422,456
Yards / Carry3.24.4
Yards / Game120.2204.7
Touchdowns828
Passing
Attempts362306
Completions176174
Completion %48.6%56.9%
Yards1,6141,808
Yards / Attempt4.55.9
Touchdowns1011
Interceptions1810
Passer Rating85.24111.82
Total Offense
Plays809860
Yards3,0564,264
Yards / Play3.85.0
Yards / Game254.7355.3
Punt Returns
Returns1746
Yards61392
Average3.68.5
Touchdowns00
Kickoff Returns
Returns3725
Yards702516
Average19.020.6
Touchdowns00
Punting
Punts9272
Yards3,5982,884
Average39.140.1
Interception Returns
Returns1018
Yards138150
Touchdowns02
Fumbles
Fumbles1424
Lost912
Penalties
Penalties9871
Yards851699
Yards / Game70.958.3
Time of Possession
Per Game26:4433:16
Third Downs
Attempts189178
Conversions5570
Conversion %29.1%39.3%
Fourth Downs
Attempts1316
Conversions67
Conversion %46.2%43.8%
Red Zone
Trips2647
Scores (TD + FG)2037
Score %76.9%78.7%
Touchdowns1428
TD %53.8%59.6%
Field Goals
Attempts1517
Made1211
Pct80.0%64.7%
PAT Kicking
Attempts1942
Made1841
Pct94.7%97.6%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts20
Made00
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →