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TA&M
Texas A&M
AggiesBalancedSoutheastern Conference7-6#47 (+6.26)
Grades
Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.
65· COverall
Offense
57· CRating
48· CPer play
32· DConsistency
33· DBig plays
Defense
68· CRating
50· CPer play
75· BConsistency
Situational
44· CRed-zone O
3· FRed-zone D
39· D3rd down O
76· B3rd down D
How grades work →2017 is the earliest season the model grades — first-year numbers run a touch noisier than later seasons.
Analytical Fingerprint
SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.
Opp-Adj Offense
-0.004
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.039
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
-0.028
Defensive EPA/play
-0.020
lower = better
Off Success Rate
44.2%
Def Success Rate
42.9%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
22.1%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
23.0%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
-0.009
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
+0.002
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.07
Special Teams
Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.
Net ST Rating
+1.73
expected pts/game
Kicking
+0.57
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+1.10
vs opponent kicks
Returns
+0.16
own return game
Return Defense
-0.10
vs opponent returns
Performance vs Perception
Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.
Model Rank
#47
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
—
unavailable
Recruiting Rank
#10
recruiting 37 spots higher
44 blue-chip recruits
Peer Context
Where Texas A&M ranks among all FBS teams in 2017 (percentile).
Opp-adjusted offense51th
Opp-adjusted defense62th
Offensive EPA/play48th
Defensive EPA/play50th
Offensive success rate26th
Explosiveness34th
Defensive havoc80th
Points per drive46th
Historical Fingerprint
Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.
1LSU2021OA -0.022 / +0.029similar: TD drive rate, pass defense, run defense4702LSU2020OA -0.020 / -0.012similar: offensive EPA, passing offense, pass defense3743Wake Forest2019OA -0.003 / -0.009similar: rushing offense, pass defense, defensive EPA3734Virginia2019OA +0.029 / +0.008similar: defensive EPA, rushing offense, passing offense3675Minnesota2025OA +0.003 / +0.015similar: defensive EPA, offensive success rate, rushing offense364
2017 Schedule & Results
13 games
| Wk | Opponent | Score | W/L | Spread | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | @ UCLA | 44-45 | L | +3.5 | W | 63 | O |
| 2 | vs Nicholls State | 24-14 | W | -36.5 | L | - | - |
| 3 | vs Louisiana | 45-21 | W | -23.5 | W | 63.5 | O |
| 4 | @ Arkansas | 50-43 | W | -2.0 | W | 58 | O |
| 5 | vs South Carolina | 24-17 | W | -8.0 | L | 50.5 | U |
| 6 | vs Alabama | 19-27 | L | +25.0 | W | 56.5 | U |
| 7 | @ Florida | 19-17 | W | +3.5 | W | 49.5 | U |
| 9 | vs Mississippi State | 14-35 | L | +3.5 | L | 55.5 | U |
| 10 | vs Auburn | 27-42 | L | +14.5 | L | 51.5 | O |
| 11 | vs New Mexico | 55-14 | W | -19.0 | W | 53 | O |
| 12 | @ Ole Miss | 31-24 | W | -2.5 | W | 69 | U |
| 13 | @ LSU | 21-45 | L | +11.0 | L | 51 | O |
| 18 | vs Wake Forest | 52-55 | L | - | - | - | - |
Betting Profile
ATS Record
7-5
58.3%
O/U Record
6-5
54.5%
Straight Up
7-5
58.3%
Home ATS4-4
Away ATS3-1
Favorite ATS4-2
Underdog ATS3-3
Last 5 ATS
LLWWL
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.
Situational Profile
Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.
| Situation | OFF EPA | OFF Rank | DEF EPA | DEF Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | -0.037 | 43th | -0.017 | 51th |
| Red Zone | -0.025 | 44th | +0.298 | 3th |
| Third Down | -0.047 | 40th | -0.198 | 77th |
| No Garbage Time | -0.010 | 54th | -0.011 | 50th |
| First Half | -0.102 | 21th | -0.013 | 46th |
| Second Half | +0.022 | 66th | -0.022 | 50th |
| Early Downs | -0.101 | 21th | -0.014 | 44th |
| Passing Downs | +0.093 | 73th | -0.077 | 65th |
| Standard Downs | -0.115 | 18th | +0.016 | 32th |
| Goal to Go | +0.052 | 61th | +0.658 | 2th |
Style & Tendencies
Pass 47.0%Rush 53.0%
Havoc/Game
16.1
Havoc Rate
21.5%
TO Margin
+0.2
Explosive/G
14.8
Yards/Game
406.8
Pts/Drive
2.07
3rd Down%
38.0%
3&Out%
29.0%
Team Statistics
2017 season totals across 13 games — Texas A&M vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
| Stat | Texas A&M | Opponents |
|---|---|---|
| Scoring | ||
| Points | 425 | 399 |
| Points / Game | 32.7 | 30.7 |
| First Downs | ||
| Total | 260 | 256 |
| Rushing | 96 | 108 |
| Passing | 139 | 127 |
| Penalty | 25 | 21 |
| Rushing | ||
| Attempts | 506 | 530 |
| Yards | 2,023 | 2,221 |
| Yards / Carry | 4.0 | 4.2 |
| Yards / Game | 155.6 | 170.8 |
| Touchdowns | 26 | 19 |
| Passing | ||
| Attempts | 449 | 413 |
| Completions | 253 | 247 |
| Completion % | 56.3% | 59.8% |
| Yards | 3,266 | 3,089 |
| Yards / Attempt | 7.3 | 7.5 |
| Touchdowns | 22 | 28 |
| Interceptions | 12 | 10 |
| Passer Rating | 128.27 | 140.16 |
| Total Offense | ||
| Plays | 955 | 943 |
| Yards | 5,289 | 5,310 |
| Yards / Play | 5.5 | 5.6 |
| Yards / Game | 406.8 | 408.5 |
| Punt Returns | ||
| Returns | 14 | 18 |
| Yards | 240 | 146 |
| Average | 17.1 | 8.1 |
| Touchdowns | 2 | 2 |
| Kickoff Returns | ||
| Returns | 42 | 43 |
| Yards | 905 | 963 |
| Average | 21.5 | 22.4 |
| Touchdowns | 1 | 1 |
| Punting | ||
| Punts | 84 | 86 |
| Yards | 3,776 | 3,519 |
| Average | 45.0 | 40.9 |
| Interception Returns | ||
| Returns | 10 | 12 |
| Yards | 75 | 131 |
| Touchdowns | 2 | 1 |
| Fumbles | ||
| Fumbles | 17 | 21 |
| Lost | 7 | 12 |
| Penalties | ||
| Penalties | 67 | 70 |
| Yards | 588 | 583 |
| Yards / Game | 45.2 | 44.8 |
| Time of Possession | ||
| Per Game | 29:11 | 30:49 |
| Third Downs | ||
| Attempts | 205 | 193 |
| Conversions | 78 | 67 |
| Conversion % | 38.0% | 34.7% |
| Fourth Downs | ||
| Attempts | 14 | 12 |
| Conversions | 7 | 8 |
| Conversion % | 50.0% | 66.7% |
| Red Zone | ||
| Trips | 56 | 54 |
| Scores (TD + FG) | 48 | 49 |
| Score % | 85.7% | 90.7% |
| Touchdowns | 35 | 38 |
| TD % | 62.5% | 70.4% |
| Field Goals | ||
| Attempts | 22 | 20 |
| Made | 18 | 13 |
| Pct | 81.8% | 65.0% |
| PAT Kicking | ||
| Attempts | 52 | 48 |
| Made | 51 | 48 |
| Pct | 98.1% | 100.0% |
| Two-Point Conversions | ||
| Attempts | 1 | 3 |
| Made | 0 | 3 |
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.