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CMU
Central Michigan
ChippewasBalancedMid-American Conference9-4#48 (+3.36)
Grades
Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.
64· COverall
Offense
48· CRating
68· CPer play
46· CConsistency
33· DBig plays
Defense
57· CRating
49· CPer play
53· CConsistency
Situational
98· A+Red-zone O
26· DRed-zone D
48· C3rd down O
95· A3rd down D
Analytical Fingerprint
SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.
Opp-Adj Offense
+0.019
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.003
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.054
Defensive EPA/play
-0.017
lower = better
Off Success Rate
45.7%
Def Success Rate
44.9%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
23.1%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
24.3%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.071
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.125
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.37
Special Teams
Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.
Net ST Rating
+2.20
expected pts/game
Kicking
-0.61
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+0.80
vs opponent kicks
Returns
+1.42
own return game
Return Defense
+0.59
vs opponent returns
Performance vs Perception
Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.
Model Rank
#48
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
#90
model 42 higher
Recruiting Rank
#72
model 24 spots higher
0 blue-chip recruits
Peer Context
Where Central Michigan ranks among all FBS teams in 2021 (percentile).
Opp-adjusted offense58th
Opp-adjusted defense47th
Offensive EPA/play69th
Defensive EPA/play50th
Offensive success rate46th
Explosiveness33th
Defensive havoc96th
Points per drive60th
Historical Fingerprint
Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.
1Texas A&M2017OA -0.004 / +0.039similar: turnover rate, defensive EPA, TD drive rate3632Memphis2025OA +0.037 / +0.005similar: turnover rate, defensive success rate, defensive EPA3383Texas A&M2018OA +0.072 / +0.036similar: havoc rate, passing offense, pass defense3334Miami2020OA +0.021 / +0.005similar: offensive EPA, defensive EPA, TD drive rate3325Georgia Tech2024OA +0.026 / -0.008similar: passing offense, TD drive rate, offensive EPA331
2021 Schedule & Results
13 games
| Wk | Opponent | Score | W/L | Spread | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | @ Missouri | 24-34 | L | +14.3 | W | 60.5 | U |
| 2 | vs Robert Morris | 45-0 | W | - | - | - | - |
| 3 | @ LSU | 21-49 | L | +34.0 | W | 66.5 | O |
| 4 | vs Florida International | 31-27 | W | -12.0 | L | 55.5 | O |
| 5 | @ Miami (OH) | 17-28 | L | +1.0 | L | 56.5 | U |
| 6 | @ Ohio | 30-27 | W | -5.0 | L | 56.5 | O |
| 7 | vs Toledo | 26-23 | W | +4.5 | W | 52.5 | U |
| 8 | vs Northern Illinois | 38-39 | L | -5.0 | L | 57.75 | O |
| 10 | @ Western Michigan | 42-30 | W | -2.5 | W | 75 | O |
| 11 | vs Kent State | 54-30 | W | -1.0 | W | 59.25 | U |
| 12 | @ Ball State | 37-17 | W | -9.0 | W | 64 | U |
| 13 | vs Eastern Michigan | 31-10 | W | - | - | - | - |
| 18 | vs Washington State | 24-21 | W | - | - | - | - |
Betting Profile
ATS Record
8-4
66.7%
O/U Record
6-6
50.0%
Straight Up
9-4
69.2%
Home ATS4-2
Away ATS4-2
Favorite ATS3-3
Underdog ATS5-1
Last 5 ATS
WWWWW
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.
Situational Profile
Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.
| Situation | OFF EPA | OFF Rank | DEF EPA | DEF Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | +0.050 | 67th | -0.039 | 61th |
| Red Zone | +0.287 | 98th | +0.082 | 26th |
| Third Down | +0.076 | 49th | -0.267 | 96th |
| No Garbage Time | +0.054 | 71th | -0.021 | 50th |
| First Half | +0.071 | 74th | -0.068 | 68th |
| Second Half | +0.028 | 62th | -0.008 | 51th |
| Early Downs | +0.047 | 70th | +0.027 | 32th |
| Passing Downs | +0.019 | 56th | -0.078 | 69th |
| Standard Downs | +0.069 | 71th | -0.017 | 53th |
| Goal to Go | +0.057 | 67th | +0.144 | 29th |
Style & Tendencies
Pass 46.3%Rush 53.7%
Havoc/Game
16.8
Havoc Rate
23.8%
TO Margin
+0.1
Explosive/G
15.7
Yards/Game
440.7
Pts/Drive
2.37
3rd Down%
37.2%
3&Out%
20.5%
Team Statistics
2021 season totals across 13 games — Central Michigan vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
| Stat | Central Michigan | Opponents |
|---|---|---|
| Scoring | ||
| Points | 420 | 335 |
| Points / Game | 32.3 | 25.8 |
| First Downs | ||
| Total | 300 | 255 |
| Rushing | 132 | 102 |
| Passing | 151 | 130 |
| Penalty | 17 | 23 |
| Rushing | ||
| Attempts | 520 | 463 |
| Yards | 2,329 | 1,551 |
| Yards / Carry | 4.5 | 3.3 |
| Yards / Game | 179.2 | 119.3 |
| Touchdowns | 18 | 18 |
| Passing | ||
| Attempts | 448 | 426 |
| Completions | 273 | 261 |
| Completion % | 60.9% | 61.3% |
| Yards | 3,400 | 3,422 |
| Yards / Attempt | 7.6 | 8.0 |
| Touchdowns | 31 | 22 |
| Interceptions | 10 | 5 |
| Passer Rating | 143.06 | 143.44 |
| Total Offense | ||
| Plays | 968 | 889 |
| Yards | 5,729 | 4,973 |
| Yards / Play | 5.9 | 5.6 |
| Yards / Game | 440.7 | 382.5 |
| Punt Returns | ||
| Returns | 16 | 14 |
| Yards | 305 | 98 |
| Average | 19.1 | 7.0 |
| Touchdowns | 2 | 1 |
| Kickoff Returns | ||
| Returns | 30 | 44 |
| Yards | 643 | 845 |
| Average | 21.4 | 19.2 |
| Touchdowns | 1 | 0 |
| Punting | ||
| Punts | 58 | 72 |
| Yards | 2,355 | 2,937 |
| Average | 40.6 | 40.8 |
| Interception Returns | ||
| Returns | 5 | 10 |
| Yards | 31 | 53 |
| Touchdowns | 1 | 0 |
| Fumbles | ||
| Fumbles | 11 | 16 |
| Lost | 4 | 10 |
| Penalties | ||
| Penalties | 82 | 68 |
| Yards | 741 | 603 |
| Yards / Game | 57.0 | 46.4 |
| Time of Possession | ||
| Per Game | 31:03 | 28:57 |
| Third Downs | ||
| Attempts | 191 | 187 |
| Conversions | 71 | 56 |
| Conversion % | 37.2% | 29.9% |
| Fourth Downs | ||
| Attempts | 29 | 31 |
| Conversions | 17 | 14 |
| Conversion % | 58.6% | 45.2% |
| Red Zone | ||
| Trips | 51 | 41 |
| Scores (TD + FG) | 41 | 35 |
| Score % | 80.4% | 85.4% |
| Touchdowns | 35 | 25 |
| TD % | 68.6% | 61.0% |
| Field Goals | ||
| Attempts | 26 | 19 |
| Made | 17 | 14 |
| Pct | 65.4% | 73.7% |
| PAT Kicking | ||
| Attempts | 51 | 37 |
| Made | 49 | 35 |
| Pct | 96.1% | 94.6% |
| Two-Point Conversions | ||
| Attempts | 2 | 5 |
| Made | 1 | 3 |
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.