Fourth Down Data
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VT

Virginia Tech

HokiesBalanced
Atlantic Coast Conference1-0#6 (+10.73)
Early-season ratings are provisional. Opponent adjustment relies on a thin schedule graph until teams are connected through more games; expect movement through late September.

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

95· AOverall
Offense
90· A-Rating
87· BPer play
91· A-Consistency
48· CBig plays
Defense
67· CRating
93· APer play
96· AConsistency
Situational
72· BRed-zone O
77· BRed-zone D
20· D3rd down O
53· C3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
+0.026
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.045
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.300
Defensive EPA/play
-0.610
lower = better
Off Success Rate
55.6%
Def Success Rate
17.9%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
23.1%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
0.0%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.910
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
0.000
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
6.20

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
+1.90
expected pts/game
Kicking
+0.09
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+1.38
vs opponent kicks
Returns
+0.46
own return game
Return Defense
-0.02
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#6
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
model 20 spots higher
Market (Vegas)
—
unavailable
Recruiting Rank
—
no recruiting profile

Peer Context

Where Virginia Tech ranks among all FBS teams in 2026 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
67th
Opp-adjusted defense
77th
Offensive EPA/play
88th
Defensive EPA/play
94th
Offensive success rate
78th
Explosiveness
49th
Defensive havoc
100th
Points per drive
98th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Syracuse2026OA +0.031 / +0.060similar: run defense, TD drive rate, defensive EPA3532Ohio State2017OA +0.212 / +0.167similar: passing offense, TD drive rate, havoc rate3453Iowa State2020OA +0.039 / +0.038similar: turnover rate, rushing offense, passing offense3414Western Michigan2021OA +0.092 / +0.023similar: havoc rate, offensive EPA, turnover rate3155Clemson2020OA +0.058 / +0.078similar: offensive EPA, havoc rate, TD drive rate311

2026 Schedule & Results

12 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1vs VMI73-3W-54.5W59.5O
2vs Old Dominion------
3@ Maryland------
4@ Boston College------
5vs Pittsburgh------
6@ California------
7vs Georgia Tech------
8@ Clemson------
10@ SMU------
11vs Stanford------
12@ Miami------
13vs Virginia------

Betting Profile

ATS Record
1-0
100.0%
O/U Record
1-0
100.0%
Straight Up
1-0
100.0%
Home ATS1-0
Away ATS0-0
Favorite ATS1-0
Underdog ATS0-0
Last 5 ATS
W
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off43thRush Off85thRed Zone Off72th3rd Down Off20thPass Def74thRush Def85thRed Zone Def78th3rd Down Def53th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall+0.19375th-0.30486th
Red Zone+0.31872th-0.59578th
Third Down-0.29720th-0.14153th
No Garbage Time+0.29588th-0.36684th
First Half+0.29586th-0.36682th
Second Half+0.10259th-0.24374th
Early Downs+0.29791th-0.36187th
Passing Downs-0.01743th-0.24474th
Standard Downs+0.23185th-0.37985th
Goal to Go+0.43863th-0th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 44.4%Rush 55.6%
Havoc/Game
26.0
Havoc Rate
46.4%
TO Margin
-1.0
Explosive/G
6.0
Yards/Game
619.0
Pts/Drive
6.20
3rd Down%
37.5%
3&Out%
0.0%

Team Statistics

2026 season totals across 1 games — Virginia Tech vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatVirginia TechOpponents
Scoring
Points733
Points / Game73.03.0
First Downs
Total306
Rushing161
Passing123
Penalty22
Rushing
Attempts4043
Yards268-4
Yards / Carry6.7-0.1
Yards / Game268.0-4.0
Touchdowns60
Passing
Attempts3213
Completions275
Completion %84.4%38.5%
Yards35187
Yards / Attempt11.06.7
Touchdowns30
Interceptions01
Passer Rating207.4579.29
Total Offense
Plays7256
Yards61983
Yards / Play8.61.5
Yards / Game619.083.0
Punt Returns
Returns70
Yards790
Average11.3—
Touchdowns10
Kickoff Returns
Returns10
Yards270
Average27.0—
Touchdowns00
Punting
Punts112
Yards42391
Average42.032.6
Interception Returns
Returns10
Yards00
Touchdowns00
Fumbles
Fumbles22
Lost20
Penalties
Penalties117
Yards9345
Yards / Game93.045.0
Time of Possession
Per Game28:3331:27
Third Downs
Attempts817
Conversions32
Conversion %37.5%11.8%
Fourth Downs
Attempts20
Conversions10
Conversion %50.0%—
Red Zone
Trips51
Scores (TD + FG)50
Score %100.0%0.0%
Touchdowns40
TD %80.0%0.0%
Field Goals
Attempts12
Made11
Pct100.0%50.0%
PAT Kicking
Attempts100
Made100
Pct100.0%—
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts00
Made00
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →