Fourth Down Data
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WAKE

Wake Forest

Demon DeaconsBalanced
Atlantic Coast Conference8-5#38 (+3.48)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

72· BOverall
Offense
87· BRating
86· BPer play
92· A-Consistency
64· CBig plays
Defense
42· CRating
41· CPer play
55· CConsistency
Situational
76· BRed-zone O
39· DRed-zone D
85· B3rd down O
21· D3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
+0.103
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.002
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.114
Defensive EPA/play
+0.002
lower = better
Off Success Rate
51.7%
Def Success Rate
44.6%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
24.6%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
25.3%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.112
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
+0.076
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.85

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
-0.42
expected pts/game
Kicking
-0.47
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+0.12
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.95
own return game
Return Defense
+0.89
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#38
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
#23
market 15 higher
Recruiting Rank
#59
model 21 spots higher
3 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where Wake Forest ranks among all FBS teams in 2022 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
82th
Opp-adjusted defense
51th
Offensive EPA/play
87th
Defensive EPA/play
42th
Offensive success rate
93th
Explosiveness
65th
Defensive havoc
73th
Points per drive
88th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Arkansas2022OA +0.169 / -0.023similar: havoc rate, offensive EPA, passing offense3612Texas2018OA +0.090 / +0.028similar: run defense, defensive EPA, offensive EPA3583SMU2019OA +0.086 / -0.055similar: offensive EPA, TD drive rate, run defense3544Arkansas State2020OA +0.026 / -0.039similar: run defense, passing offense, takeaway rate3405Minnesota2026OA +0.038 / -0.048similar: offensive success rate, TD drive rate, takeaway rate335

2022 Schedule & Results

13 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1vs VMI44-10W----
2@ Vanderbilt45-25W-13.5W65O
3vs Liberty37-36W-16.5L63.5O
4vs Clemson45-51L+7.0W55.5O
5@ Florida State31-21W+7.0W64U
6vs Army45-10W-16.5W65.5U
8vs Boston College43-15W-20.5W61U
9@ Louisville21-48L-3.5L64O
10@ NC State21-30L-4.5L54U
11vs North Carolina34-36L-3.5L77U
12vs Syracuse45-35W-10.0P55.5O
13@ Duke31-34L-3.5L66.5U
17@ Missouri27-17W----

Betting Profile

ATS Record
7-5-1
58.3%
O/U Record
5-8
38.5%
Straight Up
8-5
61.5%
Home ATS4-2
Away ATS3-3
Favorite ATS5-5
Underdog ATS2-0
Last 5 ATS
LLPLW
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off84thRush Off76thRed Zone Off76th3rd Down Off86thPass Def19thRush Def56thRed Zone Def39th3rd Down Def21th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall+0.08983th+0.01835th
Red Zone+0.12076th+0.03639th
Third Down+0.32186th+0.21221th
No Garbage Time+0.09482th+0.01638th
First Half+0.15490th-0.01550th
Second Half+0.02464th+0.05620th
Early Downs+0.06882th-0.05362th
Passing Downs+0.14884th+0.10119th
Standard Downs+0.06276th-0.03056th
Goal to Go+0.10672th+0.14321th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 48.4%Rush 51.6%
Havoc/Game
15.2
Havoc Rate
20.5%
TO Margin
-0.2
Explosive/G
16.5
Yards/Game
443.0
Pts/Drive
2.85
3rd Down%
46.2%
3&Out%
16.2%

Team Statistics

2022 season totals across 13 games — Wake Forest vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatWake ForestOpponents
Scoring
Points469368
Points / Game36.128.3
First Downs
Total330267
Rushing107105
Passing192147
Penalty3115
Rushing
Attempts505464
Yards1,7041,764
Yards / Carry3.43.8
Yards / Game131.1135.7
Touchdowns1714
Passing
Attempts473466
Completions302280
Completion %63.8%60.1%
Yards4,0553,489
Yards / Attempt8.67.5
Touchdowns4329
Interceptions137
Passer Rating160.36140.51
Total Offense
Plays978930
Yards5,7595,253
Yards / Play5.95.6
Yards / Game443.0404.1
Punt Returns
Returns189
Yards134105
Average7.411.7
Touchdowns00
Kickoff Returns
Returns1652
Yards3111,018
Average19.419.6
Touchdowns00
Punting
Punts5159
Yards1,9882,364
Average39.040.1
Interception Returns
Returns713
Yards88283
Touchdowns22
Fumbles
Fumbles1317
Lost69
Penalties
Penalties6294
Yards523834
Yards / Game40.264.2
Time of Possession
Per Game28:3231:22
Third Downs
Attempts184201
Conversions8583
Conversion %46.2%41.3%
Fourth Downs
Attempts3027
Conversions1513
Conversion %50.0%48.1%
Red Zone
Trips6751
Scores (TD + FG)5741
Score %85.1%80.4%
Touchdowns4529
TD %67.2%56.9%
Field Goals
Attempts1427
Made1218
Pct85.7%66.7%
PAT Kicking
Attempts6036
Made5934
Pct98.3%94.4%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts29
Made14
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →