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SMU
SMU
MustangsBalancedAtlantic Coast Conference10-3#39 (+6.75)
Grades
Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.
71· BOverall
Offense
83· BRating
86· BPer play
65· CConsistency
76· BBig plays
Defense
44· CRating
30· DPer play
51· CConsistency
Situational
48· CRed-zone O
63· CRed-zone D
83· B3rd down O
24· D3rd down D
Analytical Fingerprint
SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.
Opp-Adj Offense
+0.086
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.055
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.111
Defensive EPA/play
+0.052
lower = better
Off Success Rate
48.4%
Def Success Rate
45.9%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
25.4%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
23.8%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.059
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.101
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.87
Special Teams
Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.
Net ST Rating
-0.20
expected pts/game
Kicking
-1.22
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+0.51
vs opponent kicks
Returns
+0.34
own return game
Return Defense
+0.17
vs opponent returns
Performance vs Perception
Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.
Model Rank
#39
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
—
unavailable
Recruiting Rank
#75
model 36 spots higher
0 blue-chip recruits
Peer Context
Where SMU ranks among all FBS teams in 2019 (percentile).
Opp-adjusted offense80th
Opp-adjusted defense28th
Offensive EPA/play87th
Defensive EPA/play31th
Offensive success rate72th
Explosiveness77th
Defensive havoc92th
Points per drive90th
Historical Fingerprint
Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.
1Texas2018OA +0.090 / +0.028similar: offensive EPA, run defense, takeaway rate4292Liberty2019OA +0.049 / -0.100similar: defensive success rate, pass defense, offensive EPA4183NC State2017OA +0.101 / +0.021similar: takeaway rate, turnover rate, offensive EPA4104Baylor2024OA +0.032 / -0.011similar: offensive success rate, passing offense, rushing offense3985Western Michigan2019OA +0.041 / -0.042similar: offensive EPA, passing offense, TD drive rate391
2019 Schedule & Results
13 games
| Wk | Opponent | Score | W/L | Spread | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | @ Arkansas State | 37-30 | W | -7.0 | L | 63.5 | O |
| 2 | vs North Texas | 49-27 | W | -3.5 | W | 72.5 | O |
| 3 | vs Texas State | 47-17 | W | -17.5 | W | 62 | O |
| 4 | @ TCU | 41-38 | W | +7.5 | W | 54.5 | O |
| 5 | @ South Florida | 48-21 | W | -7.0 | W | 62 | O |
| 6 | vs Tulsa | 43-37 | W | -12.0 | L | 63.5 | O |
| 8 | vs Temple | 45-21 | W | -9.0 | W | 60.5 | O |
| 9 | @ Houston | 34-31 | W | -12.0 | L | 65.5 | U |
| 10 | @ Memphis | 48-54 | L | +6.5 | W | 72 | O |
| 11 | vs East Carolina | 59-51 | W | -23.0 | L | 74 | O |
| 13 | @ Navy | 28-35 | L | +3.5 | L | 69 | U |
| 14 | vs Tulane | 37-20 | W | -3.5 | W | 72 | U |
| 17 | @ Florida Atlantic | 28-52 | L | - | - | - | - |
Betting Profile
ATS Record
7-5
58.3%
O/U Record
9-3
75.0%
Straight Up
9-3
75.0%
Home ATS4-2
Away ATS3-3
Favorite ATS5-4
Underdog ATS2-1
Last 5 ATS
LWLLW
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.
Situational Profile
Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.
| Situation | OFF EPA | OFF Rank | DEF EPA | DEF Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | +0.103 | 87th | +0.049 | 30th |
| Red Zone | -0.035 | 49th | -0.059 | 63th |
| Third Down | +0.197 | 84th | +0.153 | 24th |
| No Garbage Time | +0.095 | 81th | +0.043 | 34th |
| First Half | +0.055 | 65th | -0.078 | 73th |
| Second Half | +0.161 | 96th | +0.170 | 2th |
| Early Downs | +0.051 | 72th | +0.116 | 5th |
| Passing Downs | +0.087 | 68th | +0.016 | 43th |
| Standard Downs | +0.112 | 88th | +0.068 | 22th |
| Goal to Go | -0.065 | 47th | +0.570 | 0th |
Style & Tendencies
Pass 48.5%Rush 51.5%
Havoc/Game
18.3
Havoc Rate
23.3%
TO Margin
+0.3
Explosive/G
17.9
Yards/Game
489.8
Pts/Drive
2.87
3rd Down%
43.9%
3&Out%
19.0%
Team Statistics
2019 season totals across 13 games — SMU vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
| Stat | SMU | Opponents |
|---|---|---|
| Scoring | ||
| Points | 544 | 434 |
| Points / Game | 41.8 | 33.4 |
| First Downs | ||
| Total | 322 | 302 |
| Rushing | 119 | 105 |
| Passing | 162 | 167 |
| Penalty | 41 | 30 |
| Rushing | ||
| Attempts | 534 | 522 |
| Yards | 2,351 | 2,033 |
| Yards / Carry | 4.4 | 3.9 |
| Yards / Game | 180.8 | 156.4 |
| Touchdowns | 35 | 16 |
| Passing | ||
| Attempts | 503 | 482 |
| Completions | 313 | 289 |
| Completion % | 62.2% | 60.0% |
| Yards | 4,017 | 3,752 |
| Yards / Attempt | 8.0 | 7.8 |
| Touchdowns | 35 | 34 |
| Interceptions | 11 | 9 |
| Passer Rating | 147.90 | 144.89 |
| Total Offense | ||
| Plays | 1,037 | 1,004 |
| Yards | 6,368 | 5,785 |
| Yards / Play | 6.1 | 5.8 |
| Yards / Game | 489.8 | 445.0 |
| Punt Returns | ||
| Returns | 23 | 14 |
| Yards | 186 | 67 |
| Average | 8.1 | 4.8 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 0 |
| Kickoff Returns | ||
| Returns | 43 | 63 |
| Yards | 1,121 | 1,135 |
| Average | 26.1 | 18.0 |
| Touchdowns | 2 | 1 |
| Punting | ||
| Punts | 64 | 63 |
| Yards | 2,499 | 2,695 |
| Average | 39.0 | 42.8 |
| Interception Returns | ||
| Returns | 9 | 11 |
| Yards | 91 | 150 |
| Touchdowns | 1 | 0 |
| Fumbles | ||
| Fumbles | 15 | 25 |
| Lost | 6 | 12 |
| Penalties | ||
| Penalties | 83 | 101 |
| Yards | 743 | 964 |
| Yards / Game | 57.2 | 74.2 |
| Time of Possession | ||
| Per Game | 28:52 | 31:08 |
| Third Downs | ||
| Attempts | 212 | 210 |
| Conversions | 93 | 79 |
| Conversion % | 43.9% | 37.6% |
| Fourth Downs | ||
| Attempts | 30 | 32 |
| Conversions | 22 | 15 |
| Conversion % | 73.3% | 46.9% |
| Red Zone | ||
| Trips | 72 | 48 |
| Scores (TD + FG) | 55 | 41 |
| Score % | 76.4% | 85.4% |
| Touchdowns | 44 | 27 |
| TD % | 61.1% | 56.3% |
| Field Goals | ||
| Attempts | 16 | 26 |
| Made | 12 | 20 |
| Pct | 75.0% | 76.9% |
| PAT Kicking | ||
| Attempts | 65 | 51 |
| Made | 58 | 50 |
| Pct | 89.2% | 98.0% |
| Two-Point Conversions | ||
| Attempts | 7 | 2 |
| Made | 6 | 2 |
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.