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LIB
Liberty
FlamesBalancedConference USA8-5#88 (-5.69)
Grades
Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.
35· DOverall
Offense
52· CRating
85· BPer play
78· BConsistency
69· CBig plays
Defense
26· DRating
37· DPer play
50· CConsistency
Situational
68· CRed-zone O
77· BRed-zone D
73· B3rd down O
20· D3rd down D
Analytical Fingerprint
SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.
Opp-Adj Offense
+0.049
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.100
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.110
Defensive EPA/play
+0.036
lower = better
Off Success Rate
47.9%
Def Success Rate
46.0%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
24.9%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
23.6%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.074
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.018
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.67
Special Teams
Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.
Net ST Rating
-0.43
expected pts/game
Kicking
-0.04
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-0.45
vs opponent kicks
Returns
+0.06
own return game
Return Defense
-0.00
vs opponent returns
Performance vs Perception
Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.
Model Rank
#88
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
—
unavailable
Recruiting Rank
#75
recruiting 13 spots higher
0 blue-chip recruits
Peer Context
Where Liberty ranks among all FBS teams in 2019 (percentile).
Opp-adjusted offense71th
Opp-adjusted defense13th
Offensive EPA/play86th
Defensive EPA/play37th
Offensive success rate66th
Explosiveness70th
Defensive havoc46th
Points per drive84th
Historical Fingerprint
Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.
1Baylor2024OA +0.032 / -0.011similar: defensive EPA, rushing offense, offensive EPA4582SMU2019OA +0.086 / -0.055similar: defensive success rate, pass defense, offensive EPA4183SMU2020OA +0.035 / -0.008similar: takeaway rate, offensive EPA, rushing offense3944Texas2018OA +0.090 / +0.028similar: turnover rate, defensive EPA, offensive EPA3935SMU2017OA +0.140 / -0.078similar: takeaway rate, pass defense, TD drive rate375
2019 Schedule & Results
13 games
| Wk | Opponent | Score | W/L | Spread | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | vs Syracuse | 0-24 | L | +5.5 | W | 58.5 | U |
| 2 | @ Louisiana | 14-35 | L | +14.0 | L | 65.5 | U |
| 3 | vs Buffalo | 35-17 | W | +6.0 | W | 55 | U |
| 4 | vs Hampton | 62-27 | W | -25.5 | W | 58 | O |
| 5 | vs New Mexico | 17-10 | W | -7.5 | L | 72 | U |
| 6 | @ New Mexico State | 20-13 | W | -4.5 | W | 62.5 | U |
| 8 | vs Maine | 59-44 | W | - | - | - | - |
| 9 | @ Rutgers | 34-44 | L | -7.5 | L | 44 | O |
| 10 | @ Massachusetts | 63-21 | W | -24.0 | W | 72 | O |
| 11 | @ BYU | 24-31 | L | +17.5 | W | 62.5 | U |
| 13 | @ Virginia | 27-55 | L | +16.0 | L | 58 | O |
| 14 | vs New Mexico State | 49-28 | W | -14.5 | W | 68 | O |
| 17 | @ Georgia Southern | 23-16 | W | - | - | - | - |
Betting Profile
ATS Record
7-4
63.6%
O/U Record
5-6
45.5%
Straight Up
8-4
66.7%
Home ATS3-1
Away ATS4-3
Favorite ATS4-2
Underdog ATS3-2
Last 5 ATS
LWWLW
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.
Situational Profile
Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.
| Situation | OFF EPA | OFF Rank | DEF EPA | DEF Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | +0.081 | 78th | +0.071 | 22th |
| Red Zone | +0.069 | 69th | -0.141 | 77th |
| Third Down | +0.142 | 74th | +0.167 | 20th |
| No Garbage Time | +0.120 | 87th | +0.047 | 32th |
| First Half | +0.153 | 89th | +0.029 | 38th |
| Second Half | +0.000 | 46th | +0.117 | 9th |
| Early Downs | +0.137 | 95th | +0.012 | 46th |
| Passing Downs | +0.006 | 47th | +0.193 | 13th |
| Standard Downs | +0.118 | 90th | +0.000 | 51th |
| Goal to Go | -0.062 | 47th | -0.124 | 63th |
Style & Tendencies
Pass 51.0%Rush 49.0%
Havoc/Game
13.3
Havoc Rate
18.1%
TO Margin
+0.2
Explosive/G
14.5
Yards/Game
439.4
Pts/Drive
2.67
3rd Down%
40.7%
3&Out%
17.0%
Team Statistics
2019 season totals across 13 games — Liberty vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
| Stat | Liberty | Opponents |
|---|---|---|
| Scoring | ||
| Points | 427 | 365 |
| Points / Game | 32.8 | 28.1 |
| First Downs | ||
| Total | 289 | 273 |
| Rushing | 99 | 118 |
| Passing | 161 | 124 |
| Penalty | 29 | 31 |
| Rushing | ||
| Attempts | 435 | 541 |
| Yards | 1,956 | 2,466 |
| Yards / Carry | 4.5 | 4.6 |
| Yards / Game | 150.5 | 189.7 |
| Touchdowns | 25 | 18 |
| Passing | ||
| Attempts | 452 | 385 |
| Completions | 257 | 230 |
| Completion % | 56.9% | 59.7% |
| Yards | 3,756 | 2,853 |
| Yards / Attempt | 8.3 | 7.4 |
| Touchdowns | 29 | 27 |
| Interceptions | 8 | 12 |
| Passer Rating | 144.29 | 138.90 |
| Total Offense | ||
| Plays | 887 | 926 |
| Yards | 5,712 | 5,319 |
| Yards / Play | 6.4 | 5.7 |
| Yards / Game | 439.4 | 409.2 |
| Punt Returns | ||
| Returns | 19 | 15 |
| Yards | 10 | 123 |
| Average | 0.5 | 8.2 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 0 |
| Kickoff Returns | ||
| Returns | 40 | 25 |
| Yards | 970 | 487 |
| Average | 24.3 | 19.5 |
| Touchdowns | 1 | 0 |
| Punting | ||
| Punts | 55 | 60 |
| Yards | 2,245 | 2,659 |
| Average | 40.8 | 44.3 |
| Interception Returns | ||
| Returns | 12 | 8 |
| Yards | 147 | 116 |
| Touchdowns | 1 | 0 |
| Fumbles | ||
| Fumbles | 17 | 12 |
| Lost | 8 | 6 |
| Penalties | ||
| Penalties | 88 | 100 |
| Yards | 801 | 857 |
| Yards / Game | 61.6 | 65.9 |
| Time of Possession | ||
| Per Game | 27:36 | 32:16 |
| Third Downs | ||
| Attempts | 167 | 194 |
| Conversions | 68 | 82 |
| Conversion % | 40.7% | 42.3% |
| Fourth Downs | ||
| Attempts | 16 | 24 |
| Conversions | 5 | 11 |
| Conversion % | 31.3% | 45.8% |
| Red Zone | ||
| Trips | 56 | 52 |
| Scores (TD + FG) | 47 | 42 |
| Score % | 83.9% | 80.8% |
| Touchdowns | 39 | 29 |
| TD % | 69.6% | 55.8% |
| Field Goals | ||
| Attempts | 19 | 21 |
| Made | 13 | 15 |
| Pct | 68.4% | 71.4% |
| PAT Kicking | ||
| Attempts | 55 | 42 |
| Made | 52 | 42 |
| Pct | 94.5% | 100.0% |
| Two-Point Conversions | ||
| Attempts | 1 | 4 |
| Made | 0 | 1 |
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.