Fourth Down Data
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ARST

Arkansas State

Red WolvesBalanced
Sun Belt Conference4-7#97 (-4.47)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

25· DOverall
Offense
67· CRating
73· BPer play
66· CConsistency
89· BBig plays
Defense
16· DRating
21· DPer play
43· CConsistency
Situational
52· CRed-zone O
45· CRed-zone D
66· C3rd down O
40· C3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
+0.026
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.039
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.089
Defensive EPA/play
+0.106
lower = better
Off Success Rate
47.7%
Def Success Rate
48.4%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
27.2%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
27.3%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
-0.017
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
+0.089
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.49

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
-1.97
expected pts/game
Kicking
-1.17
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-0.49
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-1.16
own return game
Return Defense
+0.86
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#97
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
#53
market 44 higher
Recruiting Rank
#38
recruiting 59 spots higher
0 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where Arkansas State ranks among all FBS teams in 2020 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
78th
Opp-adjusted defense
12th
Offensive EPA/play
73th
Defensive EPA/play
22th
Offensive success rate
61th
Explosiveness
90th
Defensive havoc
38th
Points per drive
67th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Memphis2021OA +0.054 / -0.036similar: turnover rate, TD drive rate, defensive EPA4122UCLA2019OA -0.012 / -0.052similar: pass defense, havoc rate, takeaway rate3593Old Dominion2018OA -0.024 / -0.145similar: offensive success rate, defensive EPA, rushing offense3504TCU2025OA +0.044 / -0.003similar: offensive EPA, offensive success rate, TD drive rate3505Delaware2025OA -0.084 / -0.156similar: turnover rate, defensive EPA, defensive success rate344

2020 Schedule & Results

11 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1@ Memphis24-37L+19.0W74U
2@ Kansas State35-31W+10.5W57O
5@ Coastal Carolina23-52L-3.0L65O
6vs Central Arkansas50-27W-3.5W73O
7vs Georgia State59-52W+13.5L69.5U
8@ App State17-45L----
9vs Troy10-38L-2.5L71.5U
10@ Louisiana20-27L+14.0W66U
12@ Texas State45-47L-6.0L68.5O
13vs South Alabama31-38L-7.0L63.5O
14vs UL Monroe48-15W-21.0W69.5U

Betting Profile

ATS Record
6-5
54.5%
O/U Record
6-5
54.5%
Straight Up
4-7
36.4%
Home ATS3-2
Away ATS3-3
Favorite ATS3-4
Underdog ATS3-1
Last 5 ATS
LWLLW
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off70thRush Off70thRed Zone Off52th3rd Down Off66thPass Def13thRush Def18thRed Zone Def45th3rd Down Def41th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall+0.08072th+0.11515th
Red Zone-0.01252th+0.01145th
Third Down+0.16166th+0.10841th
No Garbage Time+0.10375th+0.09722th
First Half+0.04659th+0.08030th
Second Half+0.11784th+0.14914th
Early Downs+0.00955th+0.09413th
Passing Downs+0.13470th+0.18613th
Standard Downs+0.05070th+0.07718th
Goal to Go-0.06535th-0.15676th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 54.5%Rush 45.5%
Havoc/Game
13.3
Havoc Rate
17.2%
TO Margin
-0.4
Explosive/G
20.0
Yards/Game
489.7
Pts/Drive
2.49
3rd Down%
39.9%
3&Out%
16.2%

Team Statistics

2020 season totals across 11 games — Arkansas State vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatArkansas StateOpponents
Scoring
Points362409
Points / Game32.937.2
First Downs
Total269260
Rushing7388
Passing170153
Penalty2619
Rushing
Attempts386433
Yards1,3791,717
Yards / Carry3.64.0
Yards / Game125.4156.1
Touchdowns718
Passing
Attempts463388
Completions275249
Completion %59.4%64.2%
Yards4,0083,454
Yards / Attempt8.78.9
Touchdowns3933
Interceptions96
Passer Rating156.02163.93
Total Offense
Plays849821
Yards5,3875,171
Yards / Play6.36.3
Yards / Game489.7470.1
Punt Returns
Returns610
Yards1163
Average1.86.3
Touchdowns00
Kickoff Returns
Returns3629
Yards711494
Average19.817.0
Touchdowns00
Punting
Punts4342
Yards1,6931,688
Average39.440.2
Interception Returns
Returns69
Yards11592
Touchdowns10
Fumbles
Fumbles1217
Lost76
Penalties
Penalties7068
Yards631639
Yards / Game57.458.1
Time of Possession
Per Game28:4231:18
Third Downs
Attempts173163
Conversions6968
Conversion %39.9%41.7%
Fourth Downs
Attempts3025
Conversions1512
Conversion %50.0%48.0%
Red Zone
Trips4147
Scores (TD + FG)3238
Score %78.0%80.9%
Touchdowns2630
TD %63.4%63.8%
Field Goals
Attempts1820
Made1113
Pct61.1%65.0%
PAT Kicking
Attempts4552
Made4350
Pct95.6%96.2%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts21
Made10
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →