← All Teams
MEM
Memphis
TigersBalancedAmerican Conference6-6#85 (-1.90)
Grades
Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.
36· DOverall
Offense
55· CRating
66· CPer play
51· CConsistency
53· CBig plays
Defense
30· DRating
25· DPer play
55· CConsistency
Situational
28· DRed-zone O
36· DRed-zone D
83· B3rd down O
19· D3rd down D
Analytical Fingerprint
SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.
Opp-Adj Offense
+0.054
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.036
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.051
Defensive EPA/play
+0.049
lower = better
Off Success Rate
46.4%
Def Success Rate
45.5%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
24.4%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
25.1%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.002
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.052
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.42
Special Teams
Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.
Net ST Rating
-0.20
expected pts/game
Kicking
-0.45
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+0.10
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.26
own return game
Return Defense
+0.41
vs opponent returns
Performance vs Perception
Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.
Model Rank
#85
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
#54
market 31 higher
Recruiting Rank
#63
recruiting 22 spots higher
1 blue-chip recruits
Peer Context
Where Memphis ranks among all FBS teams in 2021 (percentile).
Opp-adjusted offense70th
Opp-adjusted defense29th
Offensive EPA/play67th
Defensive EPA/play26th
Offensive success rate52th
Explosiveness53th
Defensive havoc28th
Points per drive62th
Historical Fingerprint
Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.
1Old Dominion2018OA -0.024 / -0.145similar: havoc rate, rushing offense, run defense4372Arkansas State2020OA +0.026 / -0.039similar: turnover rate, TD drive rate, defensive EPA4123UCLA2019OA -0.012 / -0.052similar: offensive success rate, takeaway rate, havoc rate4054Miami2021OA +0.102 / +0.006similar: defensive EPA, run defense, TD drive rate3895Buffalo2017OA +0.003 / -0.072similar: run defense, TD drive rate, pass defense385
2021 Schedule & Results
12 games
| Wk | Opponent | Score | W/L | Spread | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | vs Nicholls State | 42-17 | W | -25.0 | P | - | - |
| 2 | @ Arkansas State | 55-50 | W | -5.5 | L | 64.5 | O |
| 3 | vs Mississippi State | 31-29 | W | +3.3 | W | 64 | U |
| 4 | vs UTSA | 28-31 | L | -3.0 | L | 66.5 | U |
| 5 | @ Temple | 31-34 | L | -11.0 | L | 59.5 | O |
| 6 | @ Tulsa | 29-35 | L | +3.0 | L | 61 | O |
| 7 | vs Navy | 35-17 | W | +1.0 | L | 63.5 | U |
| 8 | @ UCF | 7-24 | L | - | - | - | - |
| 10 | vs SMU | 28-25 | W | +5.5 | W | 70.5 | U |
| 11 | vs East Carolina | 29-30 | L | +9.5 | L | 60.5 | U |
| 12 | @ Houston | 13-31 | L | - | - | - | - |
| 13 | vs Tulane | 33-28 | W | -6.0 | L | 57.5 | O |
Betting Profile
ATS Record
3-8-1
27.3%
O/U Record
4-6-1
40.0%
Straight Up
6-6
50.0%
Home ATS3-3
Away ATS0-5
Favorite ATS1-5
Underdog ATS2-3
Last 5 ATS
LWLLL
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.
Situational Profile
Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.
| Situation | OFF EPA | OFF Rank | DEF EPA | DEF Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | +0.046 | 65th | +0.055 | 24th |
| Red Zone | -0.129 | 28th | +0.014 | 37th |
| Third Down | +0.256 | 84th | +0.235 | 20th |
| No Garbage Time | +0.045 | 63th | +0.058 | 26th |
| First Half | +0.149 | 90th | +0.033 | 35th |
| Second Half | -0.059 | 28th | +0.076 | 17th |
| Early Downs | -0.054 | 32th | -0.059 | 68th |
| Passing Downs | +0.183 | 92th | +0.173 | 7th |
| Standard Downs | -0.035 | 35th | -0.002 | 48th |
| Goal to Go | -0.113 | 37th | -0.085 | 62th |
Style & Tendencies
Pass 51.7%Rush 48.3%
Havoc/Game
13.3
Havoc Rate
16.8%
TO Margin
-0.3
Explosive/G
17.3
Yards/Game
435.8
Pts/Drive
2.42
3rd Down%
40.6%
3&Out%
15.5%
Team Statistics
2021 season totals across 12 games — Memphis vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
| Stat | Memphis | Opponents |
|---|---|---|
| Scoring | ||
| Points | 361 | 351 |
| Points / Game | 30.1 | 29.3 |
| First Downs | ||
| Total | 270 | 279 |
| Rushing | 89 | 125 |
| Passing | 150 | 138 |
| Penalty | 31 | 16 |
| Rushing | ||
| Attempts | 416 | 489 |
| Yards | 1,645 | 2,005 |
| Yards / Carry | 4.0 | 4.1 |
| Yards / Game | 137.1 | 167.1 |
| Touchdowns | 18 | 22 |
| Passing | ||
| Attempts | 445 | 436 |
| Completions | 268 | 277 |
| Completion % | 60.2% | 63.5% |
| Yards | 3,585 | 3,011 |
| Yards / Attempt | 8.1 | 6.9 |
| Touchdowns | 26 | 22 |
| Interceptions | 11 | 9 |
| Passer Rating | 142.23 | 134.07 |
| Total Offense | ||
| Plays | 861 | 925 |
| Yards | 5,230 | 5,016 |
| Yards / Play | 6.1 | 5.4 |
| Yards / Game | 435.8 | 418.0 |
| Punt Returns | ||
| Returns | 10 | 13 |
| Yards | 131 | 89 |
| Average | 13.1 | 6.8 |
| Touchdowns | 1 | 0 |
| Kickoff Returns | ||
| Returns | 31 | 27 |
| Yards | 678 | 489 |
| Average | 21.9 | 18.1 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 0 |
| Punting | ||
| Punts | 43 | 55 |
| Yards | 1,888 | 2,243 |
| Average | 43.9 | 40.8 |
| Interception Returns | ||
| Returns | 9 | 11 |
| Yards | 41 | 148 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 0 |
| Fumbles | ||
| Fumbles | 13 | 14 |
| Lost | 8 | 6 |
| Penalties | ||
| Penalties | 58 | 81 |
| Yards | 475 | 759 |
| Yards / Game | 39.6 | 63.3 |
| Time of Possession | ||
| Per Game | 28:06 | 33:02 |
| Third Downs | ||
| Attempts | 175 | 202 |
| Conversions | 71 | 97 |
| Conversion % | 40.6% | 48.0% |
| Fourth Downs | ||
| Attempts | 38 | 26 |
| Conversions | 22 | 17 |
| Conversion % | 57.9% | 65.4% |
| Red Zone | ||
| Trips | 45 | 49 |
| Scores (TD + FG) | 36 | 41 |
| Score % | 80.0% | 83.7% |
| Touchdowns | 26 | 29 |
| TD % | 57.8% | 59.2% |
| Field Goals | ||
| Attempts | 19 | 20 |
| Made | 12 | 15 |
| Pct | 63.2% | 75.0% |
| PAT Kicking | ||
| Attempts | 41 | 40 |
| Made | 37 | 40 |
| Pct | 90.2% | 100.0% |
| Two-Point Conversions | ||
| Attempts | 6 | 3 |
| Made | 3 | 1 |
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.