← All Teams
SMU
SMU
MustangsBalancedAtlantic Coast Conference1-0
Early-season ratings are provisional. Opponent adjustment relies on a thin schedule graph until teams are connected through more games; expect movement through late September.
Analytical Fingerprint
SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.
Opp-Adj Offense
+0.087
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.044
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.232
Defensive EPA/play
-0.047
lower = better
Off Success Rate
52.2%
Def Success Rate
39.7%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
22.4%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
19.1%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.278
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
0.000
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.45
Performance vs Perception
Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.
Model Rank
#17
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
model 9 spots higher
Market (Vegas)
—
unavailable
Recruiting Rank
—
no recruiting profile
Peer Context
Where SMU ranks among all FBS teams in 2026 (percentile).
Opp-adjusted offense98th
Opp-adjusted defense77th
Offensive EPA/play77th
Defensive EPA/play46th
Offensive success rate67th
Explosiveness42th
Defensive havoc55th
Points per drive45th
Historical Fingerprint
Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.
1TCU2025OA +0.044 / -0.003similar: offensive EPA, offensive success rate, defensive success rate3472USC2017OA +0.017 / +0.044similar: defensive success rate, offensive EPA, turnover rate3413Miami2023OA +0.054 / +0.007similar: turnover rate, offensive success rate, defensive EPA3374Houston2026OA +0.008 / -0.042similar: offensive success rate, TD drive rate, turnover rate3285BYU2019OA +0.026 / -0.004similar: rushing offense, run defense, takeaway rate328
2026 Schedule & Results
12 games
| Wk | Opponent | Score | W/L | Spread | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | @ Florida State | 27-24 | W | - | - | - | - |
| 2 | vs UC Davis | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 3 | @ Louisville | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 4 | vs Missouri State | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 5 | vs Boston College | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 7 | vs Virginia | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 8 | vs California | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 9 | @ Syracuse | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 10 | vs Virginia Tech | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 11 | vs Wake Forest | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 12 | @ Notre Dame | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 13 | @ Stanford | - | - | - | - | - | - |
Style & Tendencies
Pass 53.7%Rush 46.3%
Havoc/Game
-
Havoc Rate
20.6%
TO Margin
-
Explosive/G
-
Yards/Game
-
Pts/Drive
2.45
3rd Down%
-
3&Out%
0.0%