Fourth Down Data
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MIZ

Missouri

TigersBalanced
Southeastern Conference7-6#38 (+7.04)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

71· BOverall
Offense
91· A-Rating
89· BPer play
92· A-Consistency
92· A-Big plays
Defense
36· DRating
31· DPer play
51· CConsistency
Situational
74· BRed-zone O
28· DRed-zone D
82· B3rd down O
13· F3rd down D
How grades work →2017 is the earliest season the model grades — first-year numbers run a touch noisier than later seasons.

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
+0.143
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.049
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.117
Defensive EPA/play
+0.050
lower = better
Off Success Rate
51.0%
Def Success Rate
44.8%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
27.2%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
22.5%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.067
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.049
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.80

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
+0.03
expected pts/game
Kicking
+0.74
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-0.81
vs opponent kicks
Returns
+0.14
own return game
Return Defense
-0.03
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#38
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
—
unavailable
Recruiting Rank
#36
recruiting 2 spots higher
9 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where Missouri ranks among all FBS teams in 2017 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
92th
Opp-adjusted defense
36th
Offensive EPA/play
90th
Defensive EPA/play
32th
Offensive success rate
93th
Explosiveness
93th
Defensive havoc
64th
Points per drive
88th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Texas State2025OA +0.157 / -0.060similar: defensive EPA, TD drive rate, takeaway rate4132Oklahoma2019OA +0.243 / -0.017similar: pass defense, defensive success rate, offensive success rate4073Florida State2025OA +0.075 / -0.008similar: defensive success rate, turnover rate, run defense4064Florida2020OA +0.063 / -0.013similar: defensive EPA, TD drive rate, offensive EPA3935Texas State2024OA +0.027 / -0.004similar: run defense, TD drive rate, offensive EPA384

2017 Schedule & Results

13 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1vs Missouri State72-43W-3.0L61.5U
2vs South Carolina13-31L-3.0L71U
3vs Purdue3-35L-6.0L76U
4vs Auburn14-51L+18.5L60O
6@ Kentucky34-40L+8.5W59.5O
7@ Georgia28-53L+28.5W58.5O
8vs Idaho68-21W-14.5W64.5O
9@ UConn52-12W-13.5W75U
10vs Florida45-16W-1.5W61.5U
11vs Tennessee50-17W-12.0W64O
12@ Vanderbilt45-17W-7.5W64.5U
13@ Arkansas48-45W-10.0L69.5O
18vs Texas16-33L----

Betting Profile

ATS Record
7-5
58.3%
O/U Record
6-6
50.0%
Straight Up
6-6
50.0%
Home ATS3-4
Away ATS4-1
Favorite ATS5-4
Underdog ATS2-1
Last 5 ATS
WWWWL
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off74thRush Off84thRed Zone Off75th3rd Down Off83thPass Def25thRush Def53thRed Zone Def28th3rd Down Def14th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall+0.07983th+0.01138th
Red Zone+0.12275th+0.11128th
Third Down+0.17183th+0.19414th
No Garbage Time+0.10689th+0.05029th
First Half+0.15692th+0.08526th
Second Half-0.00553th-0.07065th
Early Downs+0.08087th-0.07968th
Passing Downs+0.09374th+0.09325th
Standard Downs+0.07384th-0.03653th
Goal to Go+0.23183th-0.05652th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 46.9%Rush 53.1%
Havoc/Game
14.7
Havoc Rate
19.6%
TO Margin
-0.6
Explosive/G
15.0
Yards/Game
502.2
Pts/Drive
2.80
3rd Down%
45.1%
3&Out%
16.2%

Team Statistics

2017 season totals across 13 games — Missouri vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatMissouriOpponents
Scoring
Points488414
Points / Game37.531.8
First Downs
Total304267
Rushing133110
Passing150133
Penalty2124
Rushing
Attempts486521
Yards2,5162,075
Yards / Carry5.24.0
Yards / Game193.5159.6
Touchdowns1627
Passing
Attempts430441
Completions247263
Completion %57.4%59.6%
Yards4,0123,308
Yards / Attempt9.37.5
Touchdowns4420
Interceptions1412
Passer Rating163.07132.17
Total Offense
Plays916962
Yards6,5285,383
Yards / Play7.15.6
Yards / Game502.2414.1
Punt Returns
Returns1411
Yards23292
Average16.68.4
Touchdowns20
Kickoff Returns
Returns4239
Yards908851
Average21.621.8
Touchdowns01
Punting
Punts5873
Yards2,5703,184
Average44.343.6
Interception Returns
Returns1214
Yards140227
Touchdowns11
Fumbles
Fumbles1312
Lost115
Penalties
Penalties9677
Yards774648
Yards / Game59.549.8
Time of Possession
Per Game25:0134:59
Third Downs
Attempts173212
Conversions7892
Conversion %45.1%43.4%
Fourth Downs
Attempts1117
Conversions39
Conversion %27.3%52.9%
Red Zone
Trips5345
Scores (TD + FG)4841
Score %90.6%91.1%
Touchdowns3530
TD %66.0%66.7%
Field Goals
Attempts2025
Made1720
Pct85.0%80.0%
PAT Kicking
Attempts6248
Made5948
Pct95.2%100.0%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts12
Made01
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →