Fourth Down Data
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FSU

Florida State

SeminolesRun-Heavy
Atlantic Coast Conference5-7#61 (+0.84)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

55· COverall
Offense
58· CRating
82· BPer play
61· CConsistency
81· BBig plays
Defense
59· CRating
38· DPer play
48· CConsistency
Situational
62· CRed-zone O
21· DRed-zone D
99· A+3rd down O
37· D3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
+0.075
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.008
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.098
Defensive EPA/play
+0.012
lower = better
Off Success Rate
48.0%
Def Success Rate
44.7%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
25.1%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
23.6%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.086
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.012
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.66

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
-0.82
expected pts/game
Kicking
-0.68
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-0.12
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.08
own return game
Return Defense
+0.05
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#61
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
#13
market 48 higher
Recruiting Rank
#18
recruiting 43 spots higher
38 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where Florida State ranks among all FBS teams in 2025 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
78th
Opp-adjusted defense
47th
Offensive EPA/play
83th
Defensive EPA/play
39th
Offensive success rate
70th
Explosiveness
82th
Defensive havoc
50th
Points per drive
78th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1UCLA2020OA +0.029 / +0.008similar: turnover rate, defensive success rate, run defense4572Missouri2017OA +0.143 / -0.049similar: turnover rate, defensive success rate, run defense4063Louisville2020OA +0.021 / -0.013similar: havoc rate, rushing offense, defensive EPA3994UCF2022OA +0.098 / -0.025similar: takeaway rate, TD drive rate, turnover rate3855Buffalo2018OA +0.077 / -0.060similar: turnover rate, offensive success rate, offensive EPA374

2025 Schedule & Results

12 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1vs Alabama31-17W-2.5W49U
2vs East Texas A&M77-3W-44.5W57.5O
4vs Kent State66-10W-45.0W69.5O
5@ Virginia38-46L----
6vs Miami22-28L+3.5L54.5U
7vs Pittsburgh31-34L-10.0L57.5O
8@ Stanford13-20L-18.0L54.5U
10vs Wake Forest42-7W-11.0W51U
11@ Clemson10-24L+1.5L56.5U
12vs Virginia Tech34-14W-14.0W55U
13@ NC State11-21L----
14@ Florida21-40L+3.0L45.5O

Betting Profile

ATS Record
5-7
41.7%
O/U Record
5-7
41.7%
Straight Up
5-7
41.7%
Home ATS5-2
Away ATS0-5
Favorite ATS5-4
Underdog ATS0-3
Last 5 ATS
WLLWL
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off96thRush Off61thRed Zone Off63th3rd Down Off100thPass Def25thRush Def65thRed Zone Def21th3rd Down Def38th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall+0.11087th-0.01047th
Red Zone+0.05863th+0.13821th
Third Down+0.622100th+0.11938th
No Garbage Time+0.10084th+0.00640th
First Half+0.14690th-0.02753th
Second Half+0.07577th+0.00841th
Early Downs+0.00353th-0.14592th
Passing Downs+0.27296th+0.07125th
Standard Downs+0.03161th-0.05365th
Goal to Go-0.02052th+0.16629th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 40.1%Rush 59.9%
Havoc/Game
12.3
Havoc Rate
18.1%
TO Margin
-0.4
Explosive/G
15.2
Yards/Game
472.1
Pts/Drive
2.66
3rd Down%
50.9%
3&Out%
13.0%

Team Statistics

2025 season totals across 12 games — Florida State vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatFlorida StateOpponents
Scoring
Points396264
Points / Game33.022.0
First Downs
Total291223
Rushing15299
Passing116102
Penalty2322
Rushing
Attempts506461
Yards2,6241,657
Yards / Carry5.23.6
Yards / Game218.7138.1
Touchdowns3112
Passing
Attempts339326
Completions200203
Completion %59.0%62.3%
Yards3,0412,289
Yards / Attempt9.07.0
Touchdowns2020
Interceptions912
Passer Rating148.51134.13
Total Offense
Plays845787
Yards5,6653,946
Yards / Play6.75.0
Yards / Game472.1328.8
Punt Returns
Returns123
Yards13927
Average11.69.0
Touchdowns00
Kickoff Returns
Returns114
Yards25434
Average23.18.5
Touchdowns00
Punting
Punts2854
Yards1,1972,257
Average42.841.8
Interception Returns
Returns129
Yards149175
Touchdowns00
Fumbles
Fumbles1612
Lost102
Penalties
Penalties6576
Yards544642
Yards / Game45.353.5
Time of Possession
Per Game28:4631:14
Third Downs
Attempts159172
Conversions8166
Conversion %50.9%38.4%
Fourth Downs
Attempts2927
Conversions1618
Conversion %55.2%66.7%
Red Zone
Trips5735
Scores (TD + FG)4631
Score %80.7%88.6%
Touchdowns3723
TD %64.9%65.7%
Field Goals
Attempts1915
Made1213
Pct63.2%86.7%
PAT Kicking
Attempts4830
Made4829
Pct100.0%96.7%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts32
Made32
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →