Fourth Down Data
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LOU

Louisville

CardinalsBalanced
Atlantic Coast Conference4-7#73 (-1.09)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

43· COverall
Offense
64· CRating
72· BPer play
64· CConsistency
93· ABig plays
Defense
32· DRating
41· CPer play
41· CConsistency
Situational
46· CRed-zone O
50· CRed-zone D
96· A3rd down O
22· D3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
+0.021
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.013
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.083
Defensive EPA/play
+0.048
lower = better
Off Success Rate
47.5%
Def Success Rate
47.4%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
28.6%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
24.9%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.036
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.013
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.51

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
-0.87
expected pts/game
Kicking
-0.07
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-1.11
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.25
own return game
Return Defense
+0.57
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#73
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
#49
market 24 higher
Recruiting Rank
#23
recruiting 50 spots higher
7 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where Louisville ranks among all FBS teams in 2020 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
72th
Opp-adjusted defense
38th
Offensive EPA/play
73th
Defensive EPA/play
41th
Offensive success rate
58th
Explosiveness
94th
Defensive havoc
52th
Points per drive
69th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1UAB2022OA -0.012 / -0.013similar: passing offense, defensive EPA, havoc rate4142Florida State2025OA +0.075 / -0.008similar: havoc rate, rushing offense, defensive EPA3993Missouri2017OA +0.143 / -0.049similar: takeaway rate, defensive success rate, defensive EPA3754Oklahoma State2019OA +0.084 / +0.036similar: offensive EPA, havoc rate, run defense3625UCF2022OA +0.098 / -0.025similar: defensive success rate, offensive EPA, run defense362

2020 Schedule & Results

11 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
2vs Western Kentucky35-21W-11.5W57.75U
3vs Miami34-47L-2.5L64.5O
4@ Pittsburgh20-23L+3.0P55.5U
6@ Georgia Tech27-46L----
7@ Notre Dame7-12L+17.0W64.5U
8vs Florida State48-16W-4.8W61O
9vs Virginia Tech35-42L+3.5L67.5O
11@ Virginia17-31L-19.5W55U
12vs Syracuse30-0W----
13@ Boston College27-34L+1.0L54.75O
15vs Wake Forest45-21W-2.0W62.25O

Betting Profile

ATS Record
5-5-1
50.0%
O/U Record
6-5
54.5%
Straight Up
4-7
36.4%
Home ATS4-2
Away ATS1-3
Favorite ATS4-2
Underdog ATS1-3
Last 5 ATS
LLWLW
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off93thRush Off30thRed Zone Off46th3rd Down Off97thPass Def37thRush Def66thRed Zone Def51th3rd Down Def23th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall+0.07368th+0.02452th
Red Zone-0.03146th-0.00651th
Third Down+0.52397th+0.22023th
No Garbage Time+0.08973th+0.04246th
First Half+0.06564th-0.03770th
Second Half+0.08173th+0.09127th
Early Downs-0.06927th-0.05273th
Passing Downs+0.27693th+0.09837th
Standard Downs-0.05330th-0.02366th
Goal to Go+0.19273th-0.14474th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 42.9%Rush 57.1%
Havoc/Game
12.7
Havoc Rate
19.1%
TO Margin
-1.1
Explosive/G
18.3
Yards/Game
444.2
Pts/Drive
2.51
3rd Down%
44.8%
3&Out%
12.0%

Team Statistics

2020 season totals across 11 games — Louisville vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatLouisvilleOpponents
Scoring
Points325293
Points / Game29.526.6
First Downs
Total230200
Rushing9999
Passing11587
Penalty1614
Rushing
Attempts420414
Yards2,2001,979
Yards / Carry5.24.8
Yards / Game200.0179.9
Touchdowns2119
Passing
Attempts315289
Completions202155
Completion %64.1%53.6%
Yards2,6862,081
Yards / Attempt8.57.2
Touchdowns2015
Interceptions125
Passer Rating149.09127.79
Total Offense
Plays735703
Yards4,8864,060
Yards / Play6.65.8
Yards / Game444.2369.1
Punt Returns
Returns76
Yards2267
Average3.111.2
Touchdowns00
Kickoff Returns
Returns3338
Yards659702
Average20.018.5
Touchdowns00
Punting
Punts3745
Yards1,4211,945
Average38.443.2
Interception Returns
Returns512
Yards75143
Touchdowns01
Fumbles
Fumbles1813
Lost127
Penalties
Penalties6868
Yards572551
Yards / Game52.050.1
Time of Possession
Per Game31:3028:30
Third Downs
Attempts143148
Conversions6459
Conversion %44.8%39.9%
Fourth Downs
Attempts2420
Conversions138
Conversion %54.2%40.0%
Red Zone
Trips4441
Scores (TD + FG)3934
Score %88.6%82.9%
Touchdowns2925
TD %65.9%61.0%
Field Goals
Attempts1517
Made1316
Pct86.7%94.1%
PAT Kicking
Attempts4030
Made4029
Pct100.0%96.7%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts15
Made02
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →