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OKST
Oklahoma State
CowboysRun-HeavyBig 12 Conference8-5#22 (+13.07)
Grades
Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.
83· BOverall
Offense
80· BRating
72· BPer play
66· CConsistency
58· CBig plays
Defense
81· BRating
53· CPer play
55· CConsistency
Situational
53· CRed-zone O
49· CRed-zone D
41· C3rd down O
63· C3rd down D
Analytical Fingerprint
SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.
Opp-Adj Offense
+0.084
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.036
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.062
Defensive EPA/play
-0.003
lower = better
Off Success Rate
47.7%
Def Success Rate
45.5%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
24.3%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
25.4%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.065
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.056
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.33
Special Teams
Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.
Net ST Rating
-0.16
expected pts/game
Kicking
+0.51
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-0.78
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.09
own return game
Return Defense
+0.21
vs opponent returns
Performance vs Perception
Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.
Model Rank
#22
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
model 4 spots higher
Market (Vegas)
—
unavailable
Recruiting Rank
#37
model 15 spots higher
8 blue-chip recruits
Peer Context
Where Oklahoma State ranks among all FBS teams in 2019 (percentile).
Opp-adjusted offense79th
Opp-adjusted defense66th
Offensive EPA/play72th
Defensive EPA/play54th
Offensive success rate63th
Explosiveness59th
Defensive havoc51th
Points per drive60th
Historical Fingerprint
Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.
1Texas Tech2022OA +0.017 / +0.036similar: offensive success rate, TD drive rate, havoc rate4042Michigan2025OA +0.091 / +0.024similar: TD drive rate, offensive EPA, pass defense3923Memphis2026OA +0.102 / -0.012similar: offensive EPA, passing offense, turnover rate3764Boise State2023OA +0.080 / -0.028similar: defensive success rate, passing offense, turnover rate3745Nevada2026OA +0.038 / +0.011similar: defensive EPA, turnover rate, offensive EPA364
2019 Schedule & Results
13 games
| Wk | Opponent | Score | W/L | Spread | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | @ Oregon State | 52-36 | W | +4.5 | W | 55.5 | U |
| 2 | vs McNeese State | 56-14 | W | -42.0 | P | 64.5 | O |
| 3 | @ Tulsa | 40-21 | W | -14.0 | W | 64 | U |
| 4 | @ Texas | 30-36 | L | +7.0 | W | 71.5 | U |
| 5 | vs Kansas State | 26-13 | W | -4.0 | W | 60 | U |
| 6 | @ Texas Tech | 35-45 | L | -9.0 | L | 62.5 | O |
| 8 | vs Baylor | 27-45 | L | -5.5 | L | 68.5 | O |
| 9 | @ Iowa State | 34-27 | W | +11.5 | W | 64.5 | U |
| 10 | vs TCU | 34-27 | W | -1.0 | W | 58.5 | O |
| 12 | vs Kansas | 31-13 | W | -17.5 | W | 68.5 | U |
| 13 | @ West Virginia | 20-13 | W | -7.0 | P | 56.5 | U |
| 14 | vs Oklahoma | 16-34 | L | +14.0 | L | 69 | U |
| 18 | @ Texas A&M | 21-24 | L | - | - | - | - |
Betting Profile
ATS Record
7-3-2
70.0%
O/U Record
4-8
33.3%
Straight Up
7-5
58.3%
Home ATS3-2
Away ATS4-1
Favorite ATS4-2
Underdog ATS3-1
Last 5 ATS
WWWPL
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.
Situational Profile
Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.
| Situation | OFF EPA | OFF Rank | DEF EPA | DEF Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | +0.057 | 69th | +0.015 | 42th |
| Red Zone | -0.009 | 54th | -0.004 | 50th |
| Third Down | -0.009 | 41th | -0.025 | 63th |
| No Garbage Time | +0.062 | 71th | -0.003 | 51th |
| First Half | +0.094 | 77th | -0.018 | 54th |
| Second Half | +0.016 | 51th | +0.048 | 28th |
| Early Downs | +0.081 | 81th | +0.062 | 20th |
| Passing Downs | +0.043 | 55th | +0.073 | 31th |
| Standard Downs | +0.063 | 76th | -0.015 | 57th |
| Goal to Go | +0.049 | 61th | -0.197 | 68th |
Style & Tendencies
Pass 39.2%Rush 60.8%
Havoc/Game
13.8
Havoc Rate
18.8%
TO Margin
-0.1
Explosive/G
16.2
Yards/Game
453.9
Pts/Drive
2.33
3rd Down%
38.9%
3&Out%
17.4%
Team Statistics
2019 season totals across 13 games — Oklahoma State vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
| Stat | Oklahoma State | Opponents |
|---|---|---|
| Scoring | ||
| Points | 422 | 348 |
| Points / Game | 32.5 | 26.8 |
| First Downs | ||
| Total | 285 | 271 |
| Rushing | 142 | 117 |
| Passing | 110 | 135 |
| Penalty | 33 | 19 |
| Rushing | ||
| Attempts | 562 | 479 |
| Yards | 2,985 | 2,060 |
| Yards / Carry | 5.3 | 4.3 |
| Yards / Game | 229.6 | 158.5 |
| Touchdowns | 27 | 18 |
| Passing | ||
| Attempts | 362 | 447 |
| Completions | 232 | 270 |
| Completion % | 64.1% | 60.4% |
| Yards | 2,916 | 3,300 |
| Yards / Attempt | 8.1 | 7.4 |
| Touchdowns | 23 | 23 |
| Interceptions | 12 | 12 |
| Passer Rating | 146.09 | 134.03 |
| Total Offense | ||
| Plays | 924 | 926 |
| Yards | 5,901 | 5,360 |
| Yards / Play | 6.4 | 5.8 |
| Yards / Game | 453.9 | 412.3 |
| Punt Returns | ||
| Returns | 20 | 11 |
| Yards | 164 | 18 |
| Average | 8.2 | 1.6 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 0 |
| Kickoff Returns | ||
| Returns | 30 | 36 |
| Yards | 540 | 702 |
| Average | 18.0 | 19.5 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 0 |
| Punting | ||
| Punts | 59 | 69 |
| Yards | 2,287 | 2,925 |
| Average | 38.8 | 42.4 |
| Interception Returns | ||
| Returns | 12 | 12 |
| Yards | 121 | 121 |
| Touchdowns | 2 | 0 |
| Fumbles | ||
| Fumbles | 16 | 12 |
| Lost | 8 | 7 |
| Penalties | ||
| Penalties | 67 | 96 |
| Yards | 612 | 884 |
| Yards / Game | 47.1 | 68.0 |
| Time of Possession | ||
| Per Game | 28:51 | 31:09 |
| Third Downs | ||
| Attempts | 185 | 191 |
| Conversions | 72 | 75 |
| Conversion % | 38.9% | 39.3% |
| Fourth Downs | ||
| Attempts | 21 | 21 |
| Conversions | 11 | 8 |
| Conversion % | 52.4% | 38.1% |
| Red Zone | ||
| Trips | 45 | 45 |
| Scores (TD + FG) | 41 | 39 |
| Score % | 91.1% | 86.7% |
| Touchdowns | 27 | 28 |
| TD % | 60.0% | 62.2% |
| Field Goals | ||
| Attempts | 26 | 20 |
| Made | 20 | 16 |
| Pct | 76.9% | 80.0% |
| PAT Kicking | ||
| Attempts | 49 | 38 |
| Made | 48 | 38 |
| Pct | 98.0% | 100.0% |
| Two-Point Conversions | ||
| Attempts | 3 | 5 |
| Made | 1 | 2 |
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.