Fourth Down Data
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Texas Tech

Red RaidersBalanced
Big 12 Conference8-5#21 (+5.86)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

84· BOverall
Offense
65· CRating
55· CPer play
59· CConsistency
59· CBig plays
Defense
66· CRating
40· CPer play
57· CConsistency
Situational
95· ARed-zone O
75· BRed-zone D
76· B3rd down O
24· D3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
+0.017
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.036
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.009
Defensive EPA/play
+0.004
lower = better
Off Success Rate
47.4%
Def Success Rate
44.0%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
24.4%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
25.8%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.004
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.025
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.44

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
+2.00
expected pts/game
Kicking
+0.79
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+0.06
vs opponent kicks
Returns
+0.75
own return game
Return Defense
+0.41
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#21
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
model 5 spots higher
Market (Vegas)
#73
model 52 higher
Recruiting Rank
#60
model 39 spots higher
2 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where Texas Tech ranks among all FBS teams in 2022 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
54th
Opp-adjusted defense
65th
Offensive EPA/play
56th
Defensive EPA/play
41th
Offensive success rate
63th
Explosiveness
59th
Defensive havoc
50th
Points per drive
64th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Oklahoma State2019OA +0.084 / +0.036similar: offensive success rate, TD drive rate, havoc rate4042Oklahoma State2023OA +0.053 / +0.010similar: rushing offense, passing offense, offensive EPA3743Virginia2020OA +0.005 / -0.006similar: defensive EPA, TD drive rate, passing offense3624Memphis2020OA +0.003 / -0.004similar: TD drive rate, offensive EPA, pass defense3555East Carolina2024OA -0.003 / -0.003similar: takeaway rate, havoc rate, offensive EPA353

2022 Schedule & Results

13 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1vs Murray State63-10W-38.0W60.5O
2vs Houston33-30W-4.5L--
3@ NC State14-27L+10.0L56U
4vs Texas37-34W+6.5W60O
5@ Kansas State28-37L+8.0L57O
6@ Oklahoma State31-41L+9.0L66.5O
8vs West Virginia48-10W-6.5W65.5U
9vs Baylor17-45L-2.5L62.5U
10@ TCU24-34L+9.5L69.5U
11vs Kansas43-28W-3.5W64.5O
12@ Iowa State14-10W+3.5W48U
13vs Oklahoma51-48W+2.5W63.5O
18@ Ole Miss42-25W----

Betting Profile

ATS Record
7-6
53.8%
O/U Record
6-6
50.0%
Straight Up
8-5
61.5%
Home ATS5-2
Away ATS2-4
Favorite ATS3-2
Underdog ATS4-4
Last 5 ATS
LWWWW
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off61thRush Off49thRed Zone Off96th3rd Down Off77thPass Def30thRush Def56thRed Zone Def76th3rd Down Def24th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall+0.01156th-0.00344th
Red Zone+0.22496th-0.17676th
Third Down+0.21777th+0.18024th
No Garbage Time+0.01056th-0.00142th
First Half+0.05668th-0.01449th
Second Half-0.03444th+0.01037th
Early Downs-0.05237th+0.03222th
Passing Downs+0.05461th+0.05530th
Standard Downs-0.01249th-0.03556th
Goal to Go+0.24683th+0.03342th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 52.0%Rush 48.0%
Havoc/Game
13.8
Havoc Rate
18.3%
TO Margin
-0.5
Explosive/G
19.2
Yards/Game
461.4
Pts/Drive
2.44
3rd Down%
37.0%
3&Out%
16.1%

Team Statistics

2022 season totals across 13 games — Texas Tech vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatTexas TechOpponents
Scoring
Points445379
Points / Game34.229.2
First Downs
Total345267
Rushing136113
Passing181133
Penalty2821
Rushing
Attempts525516
Yards2,0722,194
Yards / Carry3.94.3
Yards / Game159.4168.8
Touchdowns2818
Passing
Attempts569425
Completions348251
Completion %61.2%59.1%
Yards3,9263,338
Yards / Attempt6.97.9
Touchdowns2623
Interceptions1810
Passer Rating127.87138.19
Total Offense
Plays1,094941
Yards5,9985,532
Yards / Play5.55.9
Yards / Game461.4425.5
Punt Returns
Returns1710
Yards110157
Average6.515.7
Touchdowns01
Kickoff Returns
Returns3026
Yards681369
Average22.714.2
Touchdowns10
Punting
Punts5060
Yards2,2152,507
Average44.341.8
Interception Returns
Returns1018
Yards47271
Touchdowns03
Fumbles
Fumbles2013
Lost79
Penalties
Penalties7480
Yards576737
Yards / Game44.356.7
Time of Possession
Per Game29:3629:57
Third Downs
Attempts211202
Conversions7878
Conversion %37.0%38.6%
Fourth Downs
Attempts5232
Conversions3311
Conversion %63.5%34.4%
Red Zone
Trips5858
Scores (TD + FG)5243
Score %89.7%74.1%
Touchdowns3927
TD %67.2%46.6%
Field Goals
Attempts2628
Made2122
Pct80.8%78.6%
PAT Kicking
Attempts4942
Made4841
Pct98.0%97.6%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts53
Made21
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →