Fourth Down Data
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UVA

Virginia

CavaliersBalanced
Atlantic Coast Conference5-5#75 (-1.16)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

42· COverall
Offense
43· CRating
60· CPer play
56· CConsistency
80· BBig plays
Defense
51· CRating
40· CPer play
64· CConsistency
Situational
65· CRed-zone O
94· ARed-zone D
43· C3rd down O
32· D3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
+0.005
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.006
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.042
Defensive EPA/play
+0.049
lower = better
Off Success Rate
47.4%
Def Success Rate
46.0%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
26.4%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
24.8%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
-0.008
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
+0.063
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.25

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
-0.28
expected pts/game
Kicking
-0.15
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-0.31
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.11
own return game
Return Defense
+0.29
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#75
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
#74
market 1 higher
Recruiting Rank
#34
recruiting 41 spots higher
2 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where Virginia ranks among all FBS teams in 2020 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
59th
Opp-adjusted defense
48th
Offensive EPA/play
60th
Defensive EPA/play
41th
Offensive success rate
56th
Explosiveness
80th
Defensive havoc
82th
Points per drive
58th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1East Carolina2024OA -0.003 / -0.003similar: TD drive rate, defensive EPA, takeaway rate3632Texas Tech2022OA +0.017 / +0.036similar: defensive EPA, TD drive rate, passing offense3623UL Monroe2018OA +0.035 / -0.075similar: TD drive rate, passing offense, rushing offense3334Michigan State2021OA +0.076 / -0.001similar: pass defense, defensive EPA, run defense3305Pittsburgh2024OA -0.009 / +0.012similar: pass defense, rushing offense, havoc rate329

2020 Schedule & Results

10 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
4vs Duke38-20W-5.5W45.5O
5@ Clemson23-41L+28.5W55O
6vs NC State21-38L-7.5L59.5U
7@ Wake Forest23-40L-2.5L61O
8@ Miami14-19L+12.5W57.5U
9vs North Carolina44-41W+7.0W61.5O
11vs Louisville31-17W-3.0W66U
12vs Abilene Christian55-15W----
14vs Boston College43-32W-4.0W54.5O
15@ Virginia Tech15-33L+2.5L64U

Betting Profile

ATS Record
6-3
66.7%
O/U Record
5-4
55.6%
Straight Up
5-5
50.0%
Home ATS4-1
Away ATS2-2
Favorite ATS3-2
Underdog ATS3-1
Last 5 ATS
WWWL
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off56thRush Off66thRed Zone Off66th3rd Down Off44thPass Def39thRush Def52thRed Zone Def95th3rd Down Def32th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall+0.04864th+0.04641th
Red Zone+0.07666th-0.30395th
Third Down+0.01844th+0.14632th
No Garbage Time+0.04259th+0.04939th
First Half+0.08370th+0.10127th
Second Half+0.01649th-0.01962th
Early Downs+0.04068th+0.05231th
Passing Downs+0.06956th+0.09339th
Standard Downs+0.03866th+0.02052th
Goal to Go+0.01149th+0.16630th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 50.9%Rush 49.1%
Havoc/Game
15.4
Havoc Rate
21.6%
TO Margin
-0.1
Explosive/G
18.8
Yards/Game
423.3
Pts/Drive
2.25
3rd Down%
37.1%
3&Out%
21.3%

Team Statistics

2020 season totals across 10 games — Virginia vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatVirginiaOpponents
Scoring
Points307296
Points / Game30.729.6
First Downs
Total236204
Rushing9569
Passing116124
Penalty2511
Rushing
Attempts366370
Yards1,6271,385
Yards / Carry4.43.7
Yards / Game162.7138.5
Touchdowns1614
Passing
Attempts379323
Completions221203
Completion %58.3%62.8%
Yards2,6063,044
Yards / Attempt6.99.4
Touchdowns2219
Interceptions1411
Passer Rating127.84154.61
Total Offense
Plays745693
Yards4,2334,429
Yards / Play5.76.4
Yards / Game423.3442.9
Punt Returns
Returns1412
Yards7172
Average5.16.0
Touchdowns00
Kickoff Returns
Returns2316
Yards533316
Average23.219.8
Touchdowns00
Punting
Punts4339
Yards1,7801,597
Average41.440.9
Interception Returns
Returns1114
Yards17580
Touchdowns21
Fumbles
Fumbles713
Lost57
Penalties
Penalties5379
Yards483667
Yards / Game48.366.7
Time of Possession
Per Game31:0428:56
Third Downs
Attempts143144
Conversions5360
Conversion %37.1%41.7%
Fourth Downs
Attempts2515
Conversions165
Conversion %64.0%33.3%
Red Zone
Trips4138
Scores (TD + FG)3430
Score %82.9%78.9%
Touchdowns2520
TD %61.0%52.6%
Field Goals
Attempts1323
Made1019
Pct76.9%82.6%
PAT Kicking
Attempts3632
Made3531
Pct97.2%96.9%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts32
Made11
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →