Fourth Down Data
← All Teams
PITT

Pittsburgh

PanthersBalanced
Atlantic Coast Conference7-6#61 (+1.44)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

55· COverall
Offense
52· CRating
38· DPer play
28· DConsistency
55· CBig plays
Defense
55· CRating
61· CPer play
95· AConsistency
Situational
66· CRed-zone O
78· BRed-zone D
23· D3rd down O
45· C3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
-0.009
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.012
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
-0.016
Defensive EPA/play
-0.033
lower = better
Off Success Rate
45.2%
Def Success Rate
41.1%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
24.0%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
23.2%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.016
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.153
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.25

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
+0.94
expected pts/game
Kicking
+1.05
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-0.21
vs opponent kicks
Returns
+0.05
own return game
Return Defense
+0.05
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#61
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
#70
model 9 higher
Recruiting Rank
#53
recruiting 8 spots higher
6 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where Pittsburgh ranks among all FBS teams in 2024 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
36th
Opp-adjusted defense
63th
Offensive EPA/play
38th
Defensive EPA/play
62th
Offensive success rate
40th
Explosiveness
55th
Defensive havoc
88th
Points per drive
51th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1North Texas2021OA -0.044 / +0.014similar: turnover rate, TD drive rate, rushing offense3422UTSA2024OA +0.005 / +0.018similar: run defense, defensive success rate, passing offense3313Virginia2020OA +0.005 / -0.006similar: pass defense, rushing offense, havoc rate3294Purdue2017OA +0.012 / +0.097similar: offensive EPA, takeaway rate, run defense3255Texas Tech2022OA +0.017 / +0.036similar: takeaway rate, passing offense, rushing offense324

2024 Schedule & Results

13 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1vs Kent State55-24W-24.0W55.5O
2@ Cincinnati28-27W+2.0W59.25U
3vs West Virginia38-34W+2.0W64.5O
4vs Youngstown State73-17W----
6@ North Carolina34-24W-3.0W64U
7vs California17-15W-3.5L59.5U
9vs Syracuse41-13W----
10@ SMU25-48L+7.5L58.5O
11vs Virginia19-24L-7.5L57.5U
12vs Clemson20-24L+10.0W54U
13@ Louisville9-37L+8.0L57U
14@ Boston College23-34L+4.5L48.5O
18@ Toledo46-48L----

Betting Profile

ATS Record
6-6
50.0%
O/U Record
5-7
41.7%
Straight Up
7-6
53.8%
Home ATS4-2
Away ATS2-4
Favorite ATS3-3
Underdog ATS3-3
Last 5 ATS
LWLLL
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off56thRush Off43thRed Zone Off67th3rd Down Off23thPass Def24thRush Def85thRed Zone Def78th3rd Down Def46th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall+0.00950th-0.02161th
Red Zone+0.08767th-0.16278th
Third Down-0.02123th+0.09246th
No Garbage Time-0.02633th-0.01654th
First Half-0.06929th+0.00442th
Second Half+0.08575th-0.04771th
Early Downs-0.01652th-0.12690th
Passing Downs+0.05656th+0.09824th
Standard Downs-0.01643th-0.09585th
Goal to Go+0.20878th-0.17881th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 54.3%Rush 45.7%
Havoc/Game
17.5
Havoc Rate
22.9%
TO Margin
-0.2
Explosive/G
14.1
Yards/Game
408.7
Pts/Drive
2.25
3rd Down%
38.3%
3&Out%
18.0%

Team Statistics

2024 season totals across 13 games — Pittsburgh vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatPittsburghOpponents
Scoring
Points428369
Points / Game32.928.4
First Downs
Total301265
Rushing10289
Passing158155
Penalty4121
Rushing
Attempts421476
Yards1,8431,466
Yards / Carry4.43.1
Yards / Game141.8112.8
Touchdowns1618
Passing
Attempts500478
Completions302283
Completion %60.4%59.2%
Yards3,4703,450
Yards / Attempt6.97.2
Touchdowns2922
Interceptions1613
Passer Rating131.44129.58
Total Offense
Plays921954
Yards5,3134,916
Yards / Play5.85.2
Yards / Game408.7378.2
Punt Returns
Returns2526
Yards225121
Average9.04.7
Touchdowns20
Kickoff Returns
Returns3516
Yards713372
Average20.423.3
Touchdowns00
Punting
Punts5864
Yards2,5342,670
Average43.741.7
Interception Returns
Returns1316
Yards191364
Touchdowns44
Fumbles
Fumbles2112
Lost45
Penalties
Penalties92103
Yards798977
Yards / Game61.475.2
Time of Possession
Per Game26:2533:35
Third Downs
Attempts175197
Conversions6767
Conversion %38.3%34.0%
Fourth Downs
Attempts2134
Conversions1121
Conversion %52.4%61.8%
Red Zone
Trips4843
Scores (TD + FG)4334
Score %89.6%79.1%
Touchdowns3525
TD %72.9%58.1%
Field Goals
Attempts2420
Made2117
Pct87.5%85.0%
PAT Kicking
Attempts4541
Made4540
Pct100.0%97.6%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts108
Made54
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →