Fourth Down Data
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UNT

North Texas

Mean GreenRun-Heavy
American Conference6-7#94 (-3.18)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

30· DOverall
Offense
35· DRating
35· DPer play
52· CConsistency
39· DBig plays
Defense
41· CRating
54· CPer play
78· BConsistency
Situational
31· DRed-zone O
83· BRed-zone D
36· D3rd down O
73· B3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
-0.044
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.014
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
-0.039
Defensive EPA/play
-0.029
lower = better
Off Success Rate
46.9%
Def Success Rate
43.6%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
23.4%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
23.2%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
-0.010
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
+0.069
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.06

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
-1.44
expected pts/game
Kicking
-0.02
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-1.01
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.41
own return game
Return Defense
+0.00
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#94
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
#105
model 11 higher
Recruiting Rank
#72
recruiting 22 spots higher
0 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where North Texas ranks among all FBS teams in 2021 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
34th
Opp-adjusted defense
56th
Offensive EPA/play
35th
Defensive EPA/play
54th
Offensive success rate
56th
Explosiveness
39th
Defensive havoc
68th
Points per drive
46th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Purdue2023OA -0.050 / +0.010similar: offensive EPA, takeaway rate, havoc rate3542Pittsburgh2024OA -0.009 / +0.012similar: turnover rate, TD drive rate, rushing offense3423East Carolina2024OA -0.003 / -0.003similar: defensive success rate, rushing offense, defensive EPA3364Auburn2023OA -0.094 / +0.044similar: turnover rate, defensive EPA, havoc rate3335Virginia2020OA +0.005 / -0.006similar: offensive success rate, rushing offense, pass defense316

2021 Schedule & Results

13 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1vs Northwestern State44-14W-18.0W--
2@ SMU12-35L+22.0L71.5U
3vs UAB6-40L+13.0L57U
4@ Louisiana Tech17-24L+11.0W65.5U
6@ Missouri35-48L+11.0L66O
7vs Marshall21-49L----
8vs Liberty26-35L+21.5W60.25O
9@ Rice30-24W+2.5W56.5U
10@ Southern Miss38-14W-4.5W47.75O
11vs UTEP20-17W+1.0W55U
12@ Florida International49-7W-10.0W58U
13vs UTSA45-23W+10.5W59.5O
17@ Miami (OH)14-27L----

Betting Profile

ATS Record
9-4
69.2%
O/U Record
5-7
41.7%
Straight Up
6-7
46.2%
Home ATS4-2
Away ATS5-2
Favorite ATS3-0
Underdog ATS6-4
Last 5 ATS
WWWWL
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off47thRush Off38thRed Zone Off31th3rd Down Off36thPass Def23thRush Def85thRed Zone Def83th3rd Down Def74th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall-0.02040th-0.02953th
Red Zone-0.11831th-0.19383th
Third Down+0.01336th-0.06074th
No Garbage Time-0.02936th-0.03355th
First Half-0.09323th-0.01554th
Second Half+0.05977th-0.04561th
Early Downs-0.02741th-0.07573th
Passing Downs-0.00847th+0.09823th
Standard Downs-0.02638th-0.10485th
Goal to Go-0.02851th-0.21974th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 38.1%Rush 61.9%
Havoc/Game
13.7
Havoc Rate
20.0%
TO Margin
0.0
Explosive/G
15.1
Yards/Game
431.2
Pts/Drive
2.06
3rd Down%
41.4%
3&Out%
23.6%

Team Statistics

2021 season totals across 13 games — North Texas vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatNorth TexasOpponents
Scoring
Points357357
Points / Game27.527.5
First Downs
Total301251
Rushing16799
Passing108121
Penalty2631
Rushing
Attempts639493
Yards3,0431,976
Yards / Carry4.84.0
Yards / Game234.1152.0
Touchdowns3218
Passing
Attempts394382
Completions204228
Completion %51.8%59.7%
Yards2,5632,990
Yards / Attempt6.57.8
Touchdowns1225
Interceptions146
Passer Rating109.36143.89
Total Offense
Plays1,033875
Yards5,6064,966
Yards / Play5.45.7
Yards / Game431.2382.0
Punt Returns
Returns1232
Yards93307
Average7.89.6
Touchdowns01
Kickoff Returns
Returns2235
Yards442667
Average20.119.1
Touchdowns00
Punting
Punts6168
Yards2,6752,972
Average43.943.7
Interception Returns
Returns614
Yards114179
Touchdowns02
Fumbles
Fumbles1423
Lost412
Penalties
Penalties9396
Yards889844
Yards / Game68.464.9
Time of Possession
Per Game29:4930:08
Third Downs
Attempts210187
Conversions8773
Conversion %41.4%39.0%
Fourth Downs
Attempts3921
Conversions1613
Conversion %41.0%61.9%
Red Zone
Trips4939
Scores (TD + FG)3731
Score %75.5%79.5%
Touchdowns2621
TD %53.1%53.8%
Field Goals
Attempts1616
Made1312
Pct81.3%75.0%
PAT Kicking
Attempts4246
Made4245
Pct100.0%97.8%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts30
Made00
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →