Fourth Down Data
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PUR

Purdue

BoilermakersBalanced
Big Ten Conference4-8#109 (-5.03)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

20· DOverall
Offense
24· DRating
37· DPer play
73· BConsistency
74· BBig plays
Defense
40· CRating
50· CPer play
65· CConsistency
Situational
48· CRed-zone O
25· DRed-zone D
44· C3rd down O
21· D3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
-0.050
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.010
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
-0.023
Defensive EPA/play
+0.003
lower = better
Off Success Rate
48.1%
Def Success Rate
44.7%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
25.3%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
23.5%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
-0.026
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
+0.171
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
1.77

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
-1.31
expected pts/game
Kicking
-1.53
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+0.14
vs opponent kicks
Returns
+0.08
own return game
Return Defense
-0.01
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#109
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
#103
market 6 higher
Recruiting Rank
#41
recruiting 68 spots higher
10 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where Purdue ranks among all FBS teams in 2023 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
28th
Opp-adjusted defense
58th
Offensive EPA/play
37th
Defensive EPA/play
50th
Offensive success rate
72th
Explosiveness
75th
Defensive havoc
66th
Points per drive
22th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Ole Miss2019OA +0.008 / +0.019similar: takeaway rate, defensive EPA, rushing offense4022North Texas2021OA -0.044 / +0.014similar: offensive EPA, takeaway rate, havoc rate3533Auburn2024OA -0.000 / +0.003similar: takeaway rate, defensive EPA, offensive EPA3494California2021OA -0.056 / -0.013similar: defensive EPA, offensive EPA, run defense3395Nebraska2019OA +0.022 / +0.042similar: run defense, offensive EPA, havoc rate331

2023 Schedule & Results

12 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1vs Fresno State35-39L-3.5L47.5O
2@ Virginia Tech24-17W+1.5W49U
3vs Syracuse20-35L+5.5L53.5O
4vs Wisconsin17-38L----
5vs Illinois44-19W0.0W53.5O
6@ Iowa14-20L+2.5L38.5U
7vs Ohio State7-41L+19.5L49.5U
9@ Nebraska14-31L+2.5L40O
10@ Michigan13-41L+32.5W50.5O
11vs Minnesota49-30W-1.0W46.5O
12@ Northwestern15-23L-3.0L46.5U
13vs Indiana35-31W-3.0W51O

Betting Profile

ATS Record
5-7
41.7%
O/U Record
7-5
58.3%
Straight Up
4-8
33.3%
Home ATS3-4
Away ATS2-3
Favorite ATS2-2
Underdog ATS3-5
Last 5 ATS
LWWLW
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off70thRush Off24thRed Zone Off49th3rd Down Off44thPass Def41thRush Def46thRed Zone Def25th3rd Down Def21th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall-0.01041th+0.01149th
Red Zone-0.00949th+0.10525th
Third Down+0.17044th+0.30721th
No Garbage Time-0.01340th+0.01150th
First Half-0.09416th+0.06727th
Second Half+0.06774th-0.05473th
Early Downs-0.08727th-0.01841th
Passing Downs+0.11070th+0.04941th
Standard Downs-0.07124th-0.01046th
Goal to Go+0.08163th-0.00651th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 45.9%Rush 54.1%
Havoc/Game
13.7
Havoc Rate
19.9%
TO Margin
0.0
Explosive/G
16.7
Yards/Game
380.3
Pts/Drive
1.77
3rd Down%
35.8%
3&Out%
20.7%

Team Statistics

2023 season totals across 12 games — Purdue vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatPurdueOpponents
Scoring
Points287365
Points / Game23.930.4
First Downs
Total246239
Rushing10786
Passing118125
Penalty2128
Rushing
Attempts462431
Yards2,0291,687
Yards / Carry4.43.9
Yards / Game169.1140.6
Touchdowns2022
Passing
Attempts392370
Completions234201
Completion %59.7%54.3%
Yards2,5342,898
Yards / Attempt6.57.8
Touchdowns1521
Interceptions1010
Passer Rating121.52133.44
Total Offense
Plays854801
Yards4,5634,585
Yards / Play5.35.7
Yards / Game380.3382.1
Punt Returns
Returns2015
Yards15994
Average8.06.3
Touchdowns00
Kickoff Returns
Returns2130
Yards509660
Average24.222.0
Touchdowns11
Punting
Punts6357
Yards2,5292,502
Average40.143.9
Interception Returns
Returns1010
Yards79127
Touchdowns00
Fumbles
Fumbles2217
Lost88
Penalties
Penalties7271
Yards676598
Yards / Game56.349.8
Time of Possession
Per Game30:2629:34
Third Downs
Attempts176165
Conversions6368
Conversion %35.8%41.2%
Fourth Downs
Attempts2811
Conversions115
Conversion %39.3%45.5%
Red Zone
Trips4345
Scores (TD + FG)3139
Score %72.1%86.7%
Touchdowns2528
TD %58.1%62.2%
Field Goals
Attempts1723
Made817
Pct47.1%73.9%
PAT Kicking
Attempts3341
Made3140
Pct93.9%97.6%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts64
Made22
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →