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NEB
Nebraska
CornhuskersRun-HeavyBig Ten Conference5-7#67 (-0.55)
Grades
Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.
50· COverall
Offense
56· CRating
37· DPer play
30· DConsistency
86· BBig plays
Defense
52· CRating
67· CPer play
58· CConsistency
Situational
27· DRed-zone O
24· DRed-zone D
78· B3rd down O
41· C3rd down D
Analytical Fingerprint
SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.
Opp-Adj Offense
+0.022
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.042
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
-0.024
Defensive EPA/play
-0.045
lower = better
Off Success Rate
44.8%
Def Success Rate
44.9%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
26.1%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
23.9%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.021
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
+0.023
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
1.88
Special Teams
Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.
Net ST Rating
-1.32
expected pts/game
Kicking
-0.84
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-0.35
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.06
own return game
Return Defense
-0.07
vs opponent returns
Performance vs Perception
Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.
Model Rank
#67
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
—
unavailable
Recruiting Rank
#23
recruiting 44 spots higher
22 blue-chip recruits
Peer Context
Where Nebraska ranks among all FBS teams in 2019 (percentile).
Opp-adjusted offense57th
Opp-adjusted defense69th
Offensive EPA/play37th
Defensive EPA/play68th
Offensive success rate36th
Explosiveness87th
Defensive havoc64th
Points per drive28th
Historical Fingerprint
Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.
1Minnesota2018OA +0.042 / +0.079similar: defensive EPA, TD drive rate, takeaway rate3582Louisiana Tech2018OA -0.004 / +0.003similar: rushing offense, offensive EPA, defensive EPA3563Penn State2020OA -0.009 / +0.011similar: havoc rate, defensive EPA, turnover rate3554Liberty2022OA -0.042 / +0.014similar: run defense, pass defense, takeaway rate3495Western Michigan2017OA -0.044 / -0.053similar: offensive success rate, takeaway rate, havoc rate340
2019 Schedule & Results
12 games
| Wk | Opponent | Score | W/L | Spread | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | vs South Alabama | 35-21 | W | -35.0 | L | 65 | U |
| 2 | @ Colorado | 31-34 | L | -4.0 | L | 64 | O |
| 3 | vs Northern Illinois | 44-8 | W | -13.5 | W | 53 | U |
| 4 | @ Illinois | 42-38 | W | -13.0 | L | 62.5 | O |
| 5 | vs Ohio State | 7-48 | L | +17.0 | L | 66 | U |
| 6 | vs Northwestern | 13-10 | W | -7.5 | L | 48.5 | U |
| 7 | @ Minnesota | 7-34 | L | +7.0 | L | 47 | U |
| 9 | vs Indiana | 31-38 | L | -2.5 | L | 55 | O |
| 10 | @ Purdue | 27-31 | L | -4.5 | L | 58 | P |
| 12 | vs Wisconsin | 21-37 | L | +15.0 | L | 50.5 | O |
| 13 | @ Maryland | 54-7 | W | -7.0 | W | 63 | U |
| 14 | vs Iowa | 24-27 | L | +4.5 | W | 45 | O |
Betting Profile
ATS Record
3-9
25.0%
O/U Record
5-6-1
45.5%
Straight Up
5-7
41.7%
Home ATS2-5
Away ATS1-4
Favorite ATS2-6
Underdog ATS1-3
Last 5 ATS
LLLWW
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.
Situational Profile
Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.
| Situation | OFF EPA | OFF Rank | DEF EPA | DEF Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | -0.012 | 39th | -0.062 | 74th |
| Red Zone | -0.141 | 28th | +0.096 | 24th |
| Third Down | +0.188 | 79th | +0.063 | 42th |
| No Garbage Time | -0.035 | 34th | -0.040 | 67th |
| First Half | -0.069 | 24th | -0.091 | 78th |
| Second Half | +0.048 | 68th | -0.033 | 63th |
| Early Downs | -0.016 | 40th | -0.031 | 63th |
| Passing Downs | +0.030 | 51th | -0.109 | 83th |
| Standard Downs | -0.033 | 33th | -0.036 | 67th |
| Goal to Go | -0.084 | 41th | +0.063 | 34th |
Style & Tendencies
Pass 37.3%Rush 62.7%
Havoc/Game
14.3
Havoc Rate
19.9%
TO Margin
0.0
Explosive/G
16.1
Yards/Game
415.8
Pts/Drive
1.88
3rd Down%
41.2%
3&Out%
22.9%
Team Statistics
2019 season totals across 12 games — Nebraska vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
| Stat | Nebraska | Opponents |
|---|---|---|
| Scoring | ||
| Points | 336 | 333 |
| Points / Game | 28.0 | 27.8 |
| First Downs | ||
| Total | 250 | 239 |
| Rushing | 128 | 116 |
| Passing | 102 | 109 |
| Penalty | 20 | 14 |
| Rushing | ||
| Attempts | 544 | 468 |
| Yards | 2,439 | 2,257 |
| Yards / Carry | 4.5 | 4.8 |
| Yards / Game | 203.3 | 188.1 |
| Touchdowns | 27 | 25 |
| Passing | ||
| Attempts | 323 | 364 |
| Completions | 194 | 215 |
| Completion % | 60.1% | 59.1% |
| Yards | 2,551 | 2,409 |
| Yards / Attempt | 7.9 | 6.6 |
| Touchdowns | 12 | 14 |
| Interceptions | 9 | 11 |
| Passer Rating | 133.09 | 121.31 |
| Total Offense | ||
| Plays | 867 | 832 |
| Yards | 4,990 | 4,666 |
| Yards / Play | 5.8 | 5.6 |
| Yards / Game | 415.8 | 388.8 |
| Punt Returns | ||
| Returns | 16 | 11 |
| Yards | 128 | 25 |
| Average | 8.0 | 2.3 |
| Touchdowns | 1 | 0 |
| Kickoff Returns | ||
| Returns | 23 | 45 |
| Yards | 417 | 932 |
| Average | 18.1 | 20.7 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 2 |
| Punting | ||
| Punts | 59 | 66 |
| Yards | 2,411 | 2,626 |
| Average | 40.9 | 39.8 |
| Interception Returns | ||
| Returns | 11 | 9 |
| Yards | 177 | 58 |
| Touchdowns | 2 | 0 |
| Fumbles | ||
| Fumbles | 27 | 17 |
| Lost | 12 | 10 |
| Penalties | ||
| Penalties | 61 | 66 |
| Yards | 518 | 594 |
| Yards / Game | 43.2 | 49.5 |
| Time of Possession | ||
| Per Game | 28:54 | 31:06 |
| Third Downs | ||
| Attempts | 187 | 172 |
| Conversions | 77 | 69 |
| Conversion % | 41.2% | 40.1% |
| Fourth Downs | ||
| Attempts | 23 | 16 |
| Conversions | 10 | 7 |
| Conversion % | 43.5% | 43.8% |
| Red Zone | ||
| Trips | 51 | 44 |
| Scores (TD + FG) | 38 | 40 |
| Score % | 74.5% | 90.9% |
| Touchdowns | 27 | 30 |
| TD % | 52.9% | 68.2% |
| Field Goals | ||
| Attempts | 20 | 16 |
| Made | 12 | 15 |
| Pct | 60.0% | 93.8% |
| PAT Kicking | ||
| Attempts | 42 | 40 |
| Made | 40 | 38 |
| Pct | 95.2% | 95.0% |
| Two-Point Conversions | ||
| Attempts | 1 | 1 |
| Made | 1 | 1 |
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.