Fourth Down Data
← All Teams
PSU

Penn State

Nittany LionsBalanced
Big Ten Conference4-5#60 (+0.62)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

53· COverall
Offense
57· CRating
42· CPer play
50· CConsistency
55· CBig plays
Defense
47· CRating
66· CPer play
70· BConsistency
Situational
25· DRed-zone O
36· DRed-zone D
29· D3rd down O
73· B3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
-0.009
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.011
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
-0.014
Defensive EPA/play
-0.023
lower = better
Off Success Rate
47.4%
Def Success Rate
44.7%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
24.5%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
24.0%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.009
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
+0.038
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.21

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
+0.48
expected pts/game
Kicking
-0.29
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+0.41
vs opponent kicks
Returns
+0.38
own return game
Return Defense
-0.02
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#60
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
#28
market 32 higher
Recruiting Rank
—
no recruiting profile

Peer Context

Where Penn State ranks among all FBS teams in 2020 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
43th
Opp-adjusted defense
64th
Offensive EPA/play
42th
Defensive EPA/play
67th
Offensive success rate
55th
Explosiveness
55th
Defensive havoc
66th
Points per drive
54th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Troy2020OA -0.011 / +0.020similar: defensive EPA, TD drive rate, pass defense3722Nebraska2019OA +0.022 / +0.042similar: havoc rate, defensive EPA, turnover rate3553Auburn2024OA -0.000 / +0.003similar: passing offense, rushing offense, offensive success rate3454Western Kentucky2019OA -0.013 / +0.057similar: passing offense, offensive EPA, offensive success rate3415Arizona State2025OA +0.006 / +0.099similar: defensive EPA, pass defense, defensive success rate334

2020 Schedule & Results

9 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
8@ Indiana35-36L-5.5L60.5O
9vs Ohio State25-38L+12.0L64U
10vs Maryland19-35L-25.0L62.75U
11@ Nebraska23-30L-3.0L55.5U
12vs Iowa21-41L0.0L45O
13@ Michigan27-17W+1.5W58.5U
14@ Rutgers23-7W-11.5W52.5U
15vs Michigan State39-24W-15.0P47O
16vs Illinois56-21W-15.5W52.5O

Betting Profile

ATS Record
3-5-1
37.5%
O/U Record
4-5
44.4%
Straight Up
4-5
44.4%
Home ATS1-3
Away ATS2-2
Favorite ATS2-3
Underdog ATS1-2
Last 5 ATS
LWWPW
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off75thRush Off22thRed Zone Off25th3rd Down Off29thPass Def91thRush Def57thRed Zone Def36th3rd Down Def73th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall+0.00348th-0.05176th
Red Zone-0.10325th+0.05036th
Third Down-0.05329th-0.04573th
No Garbage Time-0.01442th-0.02364th
First Half-0.05329th+0.11621th
Second Half+0.06065th-0.21198th
Early Downs-0.04934th-0.01563th
Passing Downs+0.15775th-0.14791th
Standard Downs-0.06922th+0.00357th
Goal to Go-0.03341th-0.05264th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 43.3%Rush 56.7%
Havoc/Game
13.6
Havoc Rate
19.9%
TO Margin
-0.9
Explosive/G
17.2
Yards/Game
430.3
Pts/Drive
2.21
3rd Down%
42.1%
3&Out%
17.8%

Team Statistics

2020 season totals across 9 games — Penn State vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatPenn StateOpponents
Scoring
Points268249
Points / Game29.827.7
First Downs
Total223156
Rushing9969
Passing10975
Penalty1512
Rushing
Attempts402319
Yards1,5691,172
Yards / Carry3.93.7
Yards / Game174.3130.2
Touchdowns1513
Passing
Attempts307266
Completions185157
Completion %60.3%59.0%
Yards2,3041,787
Yards / Attempt7.56.7
Touchdowns1715
Interceptions94
Passer Rating135.71131.06
Total Offense
Plays709585
Yards3,8732,959
Yards / Play5.55.1
Yards / Game430.3328.8
Punt Returns
Returns810
Yards19771
Average24.67.1
Touchdowns10
Kickoff Returns
Returns204
Yards41569
Average20.817.3
Touchdowns10
Punting
Punts3351
Yards1,3712,114
Average41.541.5
Interception Returns
Returns49
Yards18187
Touchdowns01
Fumbles
Fumbles109
Lost85
Penalties
Penalties3945
Yards335372
Yards / Game37.241.3
Time of Possession
Per Game33:4126:19
Third Downs
Attempts133127
Conversions5647
Conversion %42.1%37.0%
Fourth Downs
Attempts2214
Conversions115
Conversion %50.0%35.7%
Red Zone
Trips3728
Scores (TD + FG)2825
Score %75.7%89.3%
Touchdowns1918
TD %51.4%64.3%
Field Goals
Attempts1813
Made1110
Pct61.1%76.9%
PAT Kicking
Attempts2829
Made2729
Pct96.4%100.0%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts62
Made22
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →